Wind Advisory 3, NWS Columbia, SC

Burke County, GA, Columbia County, GA, Lincoln County, GA, McDuffie County, GA, Richmond County, GA, Aiken County, SC, Bamberg County, SC, Barnwell County, SC, Calhoun County, SC, Chesterfield County, SC, Clarendon County, SC, Edgefield County, SC, Fairfield County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Lee County, SC, Lexington County, SC, McCormick County, SC, Newberry County, SC, Orangeburg County, SC, Richland County, SC, Saluda County, SC, Sumter County, SC

444 
WWUS72 KCAE 130252
NPWCAE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Columbia SC
952 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-
116-135>137-131100-
/O.CON.KCAE.WI.Y.0003.240213T0400Z-240213T1200Z/
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-
Lee-Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-Northern
Lancaster-Southern Lancaster-Northwestern Orangeburg-Central
Orangeburg-Southeastern Orangeburg-
Including the cities of Barnwell, Lincolnton, Pageland, St.
Matthews, Lancaster, McCormick, Bishopville, Winnsboro Mills,
Summerton, Thomson, North Augusta, Cayce, Orangeburg, Lexington,
Newberry, Aiken, Columbia, Williston, Branchville, Lugoff,
Manning, Van Wyck, Indian Land, Saluda, Eutawville, Sumter,
Brookdale, Blackville, Seven Oaks, Bamberg, Elloree, Waynesboro,
Camden, Batesburg-Leesville, Clarks Hill, Ridge Spring,
Springfield, Oak Grove, Neeses, Cheraw, Denmark, Evans, Murphys
Estates, Carolina Commons Shopping Center, Holly Hill, Lancaster
Mill, Edgefield, Springdale, Elgin, Bowman, Johnston, Community
of Almond Glen, Andrew Jackson State Park, Red Bank, Winnsboro,
North, Santee, West Columbia, Martinez, and Augusta
952 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of east central Georgia and central South 
  Carolina.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A cold front will move through the CSRA and 
  Midlands of South Carolina overnight. Wind gusts along and behind 
  the front will reach 40-45 mph in places.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

FA

750 
WWUS72 KCAE 131135
NPWCAE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Columbia SC
635 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2024

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-
116-135>137-131245-
/O.EXP.KCAE.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-240213T1200Z/
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-
Lee-Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-Northern
Lancaster-Southern Lancaster-Northwestern Orangeburg-Central
Orangeburg-Southeastern Orangeburg-
Including the cities of McCormick, Edgefield, Newberry, Cheraw,
Sumter, Lincolnton, St. Matthews, Cayce, Winnsboro, Murphys
Estates, Elgin, Lancaster, Oak Grove, Orangeburg, Holly Hill,
North Augusta, Springfield, Augusta, Pageland, Denmark, Martinez,
Neeses, Thomson, Saluda, Brookdale, Carolina Commons Shopping
Center, Lugoff, Bamberg, West Columbia, Red Bank, Lancaster Mill,
Elloree, Van Wyck, Barnwell, Williston, Branchville, Indian Land,
Johnston, Columbia, North, Waynesboro, Eutawville, Springdale,
Ridge Spring, Winnsboro Mills, Manning, Batesburg-Leesville,
Blackville, Evans, Community of Almond Glen, Bowman, Seven Oaks,
Lexington, Santee, Andrew Jackson State Park, Clarks Hill, Aiken,
Summerton, Camden, and Bishopville
635 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2024

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

Winds will remain gusty this morning. A Lake Wind Advisory will be 
in effect until 1200 pm.

$$

AWP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
117 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are
likely the rest of today in advance of an approaching low
pressure system and cold front. Heavy rain continues to be the
primary threat, with gusty gradient winds likely overnight into
Tuesday while the severe threat has lessened. High pressure
moves in for the mid- week period with the next storm system
impacting the region next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A busy weather day continues as a low pressure system approaches
from the west. The primary changes in the forecast up to this
point is reducing confidence in any severe threat, with only a
very slight chance of severe thunderstorms later this evening
now; SPC has dropped the entire region to a marginal risk. There
is still a narrow window of opportunity for some stronger
storms with the frontal forcing itself during the evening when a
bit of instability may coincide with strong low level
convergence, but as noted, confidence is low. The primary
impacts will continue to be heavy rainfall from strong
overrunning and warm advection over the front to our south. A
widespread 1-2" of rain has fallen so far with spots over 2",
and an additional 1-2" of rain is expected. Consequently, a
Flood Watch continues for all areas through late this evening;
local areas of flash flooding are possible particularly if any
strong thunderstorms develop this evening given all the rainfall
prior. Following the precip late this evening and overnight, a
strong cold advection regime will develop, bringing gusty winds
across the area. Gusts to around 40mph are expected overnight,
most likely from midnight through 5am, along with sustained
winds of around 20mph as the low pressure center rapidly
strengthens as it pulls to our northeast. A Lake Wind Advisory
is in effect, with confidence still too low in both sustained
and gusts to warrant a Wind Advisory, but it is close. HREF and
NBM members have remained consistent in the wind gust potential
over the last few cycles with only some minor differences in how
quickly the 850mb winds strengthen as the low moves east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A departing upper level trough will provide the region with a
tight gradient and thus breezy conditions through Tuesday
morning. The gradient does relax during the afternoon which
should allow winds to diminish toward the end of the day. Cold
air advection will be offset somewhat by downslope winds with
highs near normal for mid February. The middle of the week will
feature a zonal flow aloft and weak surface high pressure.
Temperatures remain near normal on both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Model ensembles depict much below normal H5 heights over New England
at the end of this week with a strong upper level trough moving
through that region. The Southeast U.S. should be at the base of
this negative height anomaly with a low chance of precipitation with
the probable trough passage on Saturday. A frontal boundary may
stall well to the south of the region for the holiday weekend
with a possible shortwave trough developing along that boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread rain will continue through this afternoon keeping
IFR/MVFR visibilities in place. Periods of heavy rain will also
bring brief LIFR restrictions. We expect rain to become more
showery in nature late afternoon and evening as a cold front
works into the area. This could lead to improvements to MVFR
outside of showers/thunderstorms. The threat of severe
thunderstorms is decreasing. Winds will shift to southwest
after 00z as the cold front approaches and moves through the
region. Expect gusts to pick up early Tuesday morning with gusts
to near 30 kts. These gusts should diminish through the morning
as the surface low moves further away from the region. Ceilings
will return to VFR by 18Z Tuesday or earlier. may be
needed but confidence is currently too low in consistent gusts

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts Wednesday
through Friday. The chance for restrictions returns over the
weekend as moisture increases along with rain chances.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flood Watch until midnight EST tonight for GAZ040-063>065-077.
     Lake Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Tuesday
     for GAZ040-063>065-077.
SC...Flood Watch until midnight EST tonight for SCZ016-018-020>022-
     025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
     Lake Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Tuesday
     for SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
     135>137.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
435 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-
116-135>137-130945-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-Northern Lancaster-
Southern Lancaster-Northwestern Orangeburg-Central Orangeburg-
Southeastern Orangeburg-
435 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Georgia and
central South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Lake Wind Advisory.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely
today in advance of an approaching low pressure system and cold
front. Multiple threats are possible including heavy rainfall and
localized flooding, strong to severe thunderstorms, and windy
conditions behind the front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.