Wind Advisory 7, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

906 
WWUS71 KBOX 151536
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1036 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

MAZ002-008-009-160445-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0007.240216T0600Z-240216T1800Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Chesterfield, and Blandford
1036 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Western Franklin, Western Hampshire and Western 
  Hampden Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MAZ003-004-010-011-026-160445-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0007.240216T0900Z-240216T1800Z/
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Greenfield, Orange, Barre, Fitchburg, 
Amherst, Northampton, Springfield, and Ayer
1036 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Franklin, Northern Worcester, Eastern 
  Hampshire, Eastern Hampden and Northern Middlesex Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MAZ022>024-RIZ008-160445-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0007.240216T0900Z-240216T1800Z/
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, 
Vineyard Haven, Nantucket, and New Shoreham
1036 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket 
  Counties. In Rhode Island, Block Island.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/box

779 
WWUS71 KBOX 152031
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
331 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

CTZ002-160945-
/O.EXA.KBOX.WI.Y.0007.240216T0600Z-240216T1800Z/
Hartford CT-
Including the cities of Hartford and Windsor Locks
331 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Hartford County.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CTZ003-004-MAZ005-006-012-160945-
/O.EXA.KBOX.WI.Y.0007.240216T0900Z-240216T1800Z/
Tolland CT-Windham CT-Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-
Southern Worcester MA-
Including the cities of Union, Vernon, Putnam, Willimantic, 
Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Milford, and Worcester
331 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Tolland and Windham Counties. In 
  Massachusetts, Central Middlesex, Western Essex and Southern 
  Worcester Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MAZ002-008-009-160945-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0007.240216T0600Z-240216T1800Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Chesterfield, and Blandford
331 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Western Franklin, Western Hampshire and Western 
  Hampden Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MAZ003-004-010-011-026-160945-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0007.240216T0900Z-240216T1800Z/
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Greenfield, Orange, Barre, Fitchburg, 
Amherst, Northampton, Springfield, and Ayer
331 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Franklin, Northern Worcester, Eastern 
  Hampshire, Eastern Hampden and Northern Middlesex Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MAZ022>024-RIZ008-160945-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0007.240216T0900Z-240216T1800Z/
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, 
Vineyard Haven, Nantucket, and New Shoreham
331 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket 
  Counties. In Rhode Island, Block Island.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/box

949 
WWUS71 KBOX 160834
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
334 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

CTZ002-161800-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-240216T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.WI.Y.0008.240216T0900Z-240216T1800Z/
Hartford CT-
Including the cities of Hartford and Windsor Locks
334 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Hartford County.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MAZ002-008-009-161800-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-240216T1800Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Chesterfield, and Blandford
334 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Western Franklin, Western Hampshire and Western 
  Hampden Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CTZ003-004-MAZ003>006-010>012-026-161800-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0007.240216T0900Z-240216T1800Z/
Tolland CT-Windham CT-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Union, Vernon, Putnam, Willimantic, 
Greenfield, Orange, Barre, Fitchburg, Framingham, Lowell, 
Lawrence, Amherst, Northampton, Springfield, Milford, Worcester, 
and Ayer
334 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Worcester, Northern and Central Middlesex, Tolland, 
  Windham, Eastern Franklin, Western Essex, Eastern Hampshire, 
  and Eastern Hampden Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MAZ022>024-RIZ008-161800-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0007.240216T0900Z-240216T1800Z/
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, 
Vineyard Haven, Nantucket, and New Shoreham
334 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket 
  Counties. In Rhode Island, Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/box

526 
WWUS71 KBOX 161457
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
957 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

MAZ002-008-009-161800-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-240216T1800Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Chesterfield, and Blandford
957 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Western Franklin, Western Hampshire and Western 
  Hampden Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CTZ002-161800-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-240216T1800Z/
Hartford CT-
Including the cities of Hartford and Windsor Locks
957 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Hartford County.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CTZ003-004-MAZ003>006-010>012-026-161800-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-240216T1800Z/
Tolland CT-Windham CT-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Union, Vernon, Putnam, Willimantic, 
Greenfield, Orange, Barre, Fitchburg, Framingham, Lowell, 
Lawrence, Amherst, Northampton, Springfield, Milford, Worcester, 
and Ayer
957 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Worcester, Northern and Central Middlesex, Tolland, 
  Windham, Eastern Franklin, Western Essex, Eastern Hampshire, 
  and Eastern Hampden Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MAZ022>024-RIZ008-161800-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-240216T1800Z/
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, 
Vineyard Haven, Nantucket, and New Shoreham
957 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket 
  Counties. In Rhode Island, Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/box

728 
WWUS71 KBOX 161756
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1256 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

MAZ002-008-009-161900-
/O.EXP.KBOX.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-240216T1800Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Chesterfield, and Blandford
1256 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

Winds will continue to diminish the rest of the afternoon.

$$

CTZ002-161900-
/O.EXP.KBOX.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-240216T1800Z/
Hartford CT-
Including the cities of Hartford and Windsor Locks
1256 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

Winds will continue to diminish the rest of the afternoon.

$$

CTZ003-004-MAZ003>006-010>012-026-161900-
/O.EXP.KBOX.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-240216T1800Z/
Tolland CT-Windham CT-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Union, Vernon, Putnam, Willimantic, 
Greenfield, Orange, Barre, Fitchburg, Framingham, Lowell, 
Lawrence, Amherst, Northampton, Springfield, Milford, Worcester, 
and Ayer
1256 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

Winds will continue to diminish the rest of the afternoon.

$$

MAZ022>024-RIZ008-161900-
/O.EXP.KBOX.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-240216T1800Z/
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, 
Vineyard Haven, Nantucket, and New Shoreham
1256 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

Winds will continue to diminish the rest of the afternoon.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/box

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1255 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A chilly and blustery night is in store for Southern New England
as high pressure moves in from the west. This high pressure
shifts eastward on Thursday, ahead of a clipper system that
should bring minor accumulations of snow Thursday night,
especially north of the Mass Pike. Very gusty NW winds behind
the clipper system Friday with gusts over 30mph. Low chance for
snow showers Saturday then mainly dry Sunday and beyond.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
945 PM Update:

Gusty NW winds will begin to slowly diminish toward midnight and
through the overnight period as high pres slides east from the
Gt Lakes. However, enough wind to keep temps from falling as
low as they could if winds were light/calm. Lows mainly
mid/upper teens to lower 20s, although mid 20s near the eastern
coast where windspeeds should be the strongest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
330 PM Update:

Thursday:

High pressure over the northern mid-Atlantic then shifts east into
New England on Thurs. Expect full sun for most of the day along with
decreasing NW speeds and also shifting to W/SW as this high moves
east of SNE. As the high moves eastward, we start to see a pretty
rapid increase in mid to high level cloud cover from west to
east late in the day. This occurs ahead of a pretty strong if
fast-moving Clipper system for Thurs night. Increasing warm
advection and full sun for at least most of the day should boost
high temps into the mid to upper 30s, with low-mid 30s around
the hilly terrain.

Thursday Night:

Key Points:

* Minor snow accumulation (2" to up to 4") from the Route 2
  corridor southward to the Mass Pike, higher end of that range
  further north one goes. Best chance at a brief period of low-
  visibility moderate snow for these locations. Timing approx. 8
 PM Thu to 2 AM Fri.

* Lesser snow amts (C-1") south of the Mass Pike in the same
  timeframe.

Pretty strong Clipper low pressure area moves from central NY
through New England Thurs night and should spread a period of at
light snow to Southern New England. In terms of its projected track
and strength, this system seems to be modeled well across the
various model guidance sources. What should also shape expectations
is that Clippers are climatologically not significant snow producers
in general because they move along at a good clip and this one
should be no exception. There's also drier subcloud air at onset
that needs to saturate up first before we can start to see flakes
fly.

However what this system has going for it is a couple things. One is
that there's high confidence that snow will fall during the
nighttime hours, which means that snow is likely to stick on roads
more easily. But the bigger factor is that this Clipper has pretty
strong dynamics owing to a SW low level jet of up to 50 kt. We're
expecting a period of warm advection/warm frontal "thump" during the
mid evening to early Fri AM hrs (about 8 PM to 2 AM from west to
east), north of the Mass Pike, with a maximum in vertical ascent
centered in the snow growth region. A band of steady light to
moderate-intensity snow should develop and move east across areas
from I-90 northward in that 8 PM - 2 AM time frame. The latest 12z
HREF shows increasing probabilities for snow rates around 1 inch per
hour from its prior run for areas near/north of the Mass Pike,
now up to about 30-50% along and north of Route 2, although its
mean hourly snow rate is around 1/2 to 3/4ths of an inch. The
more noticeable adjustments to the snow forecast were for these
areas, where totals from 2 to up to 4 inches of snow are now
indicated. These are totals which are borderline for winter
advisories; its possible those might be needed later for those
northern MA areas if snow amounts increase. But I'll stress that
the period of moderate snow is for a couple/handful of hours
and also occurs when traffic volume is a relative minimum, so
adverse impact should be somewhat lesser/lessened; that was the
rationale for holding off on any headlines in coordination with
surrounding NWS offices. Further south of the Pike, while light
snow should also develop for CT-RI and SE MA in the same
timeframe, these locations are more removed from the better
forcing described above, so forecast snow totals are lower
(C-1"). Projected totals mesh well with the latest 12z HREF
probability-matched- mean 24 hr snowfall.

This system then exits offshore overnight, but with it will be a
marked increase in WNW winds/gusts. Gust speeds increase to 25-40
mph, and a few areas on Cape Cod, the islands, the Berkshires and
northern Worcester County could see gusts get to near Advisory level
as we move toward Fri AM.

Temps mainly in the 20s to around freezing, with a rapid fall in
temps likely early in the evening once precipitation starts to
break out due to the wet- bulb cooling factor.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights

* Strong northwest winds behind the clipper system Friday

* Another clipper system may bring snow showers Saturday
  afternoon/evening

* Mainly dry Sunday through Wednesday

Friday

The clipper system exits out to sea Friday, leaving a strong
pressure gradient in its wake. Winds out of the WNW will become very
gusty early Friday lasting into Friday afternoon. With 925mb winds
approaching 45-55 knots and soundings indicating mixing up to 900-
875mb, Winds at the surface will likely exceed 30-40mph. Current.
NBM Probabilities for 46 mph gusts (Wind Advisory) are high for the
Berkshires at 70-90% with low probabilities elsewhere at 10-30%. Winds
over the waters could approach storm force Friday morning with low
probabilities for gusts to exceed 48knots at 10-40%. Winds begin to
diminish Friday afternoon as the pressure gradient weakens and a
high over the great lakes begins to build in. Highs Friday top out
in the mid to upper 30s, but with the gusty winds, it will feel like
the mid 20s.

Saturday and Sunday

A weak low exits out of the Ohio River Valley late Friday into early
Saturday then Passes well off shore to the south Saturday. Latest
guidance has trended this low further south resulting in the
majority of the QPF being off shore. It will be cold enough for any
precipitation that falls saturday to fall as snow or a rain/snow
mix, however snow accumulations at this time look unlikely with dry
air near the surface and weak forcing aloft. Drier with more sun on
Sunday with a weak mid level ridge proving some subsidence and dry
air aloft to help clear out any residual moisutre out. Highs both
days should top out in the low to mid 30s. Winds remain blustery
Saturday afternoon through Sunday with gusts up to 20mph inland and
30mph near the coasts.

Monday and Beyond

Another clipper system passes to the north early Monday, but the
lack of moisture and forcing in Southern New England should keep any
snow it produces to the north. A 1030mb high pressure then builds in
and parks itself over the region by Tuesday leading to a stretch of
dry and mainly sunny conditions to start the week. High temps through
Wednesday could over achieve a bit with WSW winds and mainly sunny
skies, so blended in bias corrected guidance from the GFS and EURO
to account for this. Beyond Wednesday, forecast confidence breaks
down significantly as many of the deterministic model guidance hints on
a short wave approaching the region, however there is significant
timing and amplitude differences between the model sources.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update:

Today...High confidence.

VFR. Diminishing NW winds this morning shifting to SW this
afternoon.

Tonight into Friday...Moderate confidence.

VFR deteriorates quickly to IFR 01-03z from W to E as light to
moderate snow overspreads the region. Brief LIFR vsbys
possible. Accums 1-2 inches possible MA Pike northward with a
coating to inch possible to the south. Snow ends around 06z
with conditions improving to VFR thereafter through Friday.
Strong NW winds developing 06-09z with gust 35-45 kt through
Fri morning, possible 50 kt gusts over the interior high
terrain. Winds slowly diminishing in the afternoon.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR deteriorating to IFR
after 02z tonight as snow develops. Snow ending around 06z
followed by improving conditions to VFR. Diminishing winds today
becoming southerly late today.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR deteriorating to IFR
after 00z tonight as snow develops. Snow ending by 06z followed
by improving conditions to VFR.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SN.

Saturday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight
chance SN.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday Night through Washingtons Birthday: VFR. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

330 PM Update:

Gale Warnings continue on most waters tonight due to NW gusts
35-40 kt. These will need to be downshifted to SCAs as winds
subside. Will note as we move into the late Thurs night period,
another round of Gale force W gusts are likely and could get
near storm force on the southern/southeastern waters. Thus will
need to consider gale headlines for this timeframe as well.

For tonight: NW gusts around 35-40 kt, gradually decrease
overnight to early Thurs AM to around 25-30 kt. Seas on outer
waters around 6-10 ft which will also be subsiding to around 5-8
ft by daybreak. Light freezing spray to accrete on vessel
masts.

For Thursday: NW gusts subside to around 10-15 kt by Thurs
aftn, expected to go sub-SCA levels by around noontime with
winds becoming WSW.

For Thursday Night: SW winds increase to around 20-25 kt on all
waters early Thurs night, with reduced visibility from
developing light snow. As snow eases up after midnight, expect a
rapid increase in W/WNW gusts to around 30-45 kt on most waters,
although we could see gusts get over 45 kt on the southeast
waters south of Nantucket. Gale headlines will likely be needed
for this timeframe. Seas then rebuild to around 4-6 ft on the
eastern waters, and around 6 to 11 ft on the southern waters.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt.
Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of snow. Local
visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight
chance of snow.

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Washingtons Birthday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory
winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST early this morning for ANZ230-
     232>235-237-255-256.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ231-250-
     251-254.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ236.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Loconto/KP
NEAR TERM...KJC/Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...KJC/KP
MARINE...Loconto/KP