Tornado Warning 7, NWS La Crosse, WI

832 
WWUS53 KARX 212356
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
656 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

IAC043-065-191-220006-
/O.CAN.KARX.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-240522T0015Z/
Clayton IA-Fayette IA-Winneshiek IA-
656 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CLAYTON...NORTHEASTERN
FAYETTE AND SOUTHEASTERN WINNESHIEK COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for northeastern
Iowa.

&&

LAT...LON 4321 9161 4322 9160 4315 9130 4308 9144
      4308 9161
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 227DEG 49KT 4315 9153 

$$

IAC005-220015-
/O.CON.KARX.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-240522T0015Z/
Allamakee IA-
656 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ALLAMAKEE COUNTY...

At 656 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Postville, or 8 miles south of Waukon, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southwestern Allamakee County, including the following locations...
Volney, Hardin, County Roads X 16 And B 38, State Road 51 And County
W 48, and County Roads X 16 And W 48.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4321 9161 4322 9160 4315 9130 4308 9144
      4308 9161
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 227DEG 49KT 4315 9153 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Skow

455 
WWUS53 KARX 220004
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
704 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

IAC005-220014-
/O.CAN.KARX.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-240522T0015Z/
Allamakee IA-
704 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALLAMAKEE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for northeastern
Iowa.

&&

LAT...LON 4321 9161 4322 9160 4315 9130 4308 9144
      4308 9161
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 227DEG 49KT 4322 9142 

$$

Skow

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
645 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant severe weather event with a MODERATE RISK (Threat
  level 4 of 5) for severe storms late this afternoon/evening.
  Another rounds of storms expected late this afternoon into
  evening. The highest severe threat appears to begin late
  afternoon and into the evening with damaging wind gusts and
  tornadoes being the primary threats, large hail is a secondary
  threat.

- With additional 1 to 2 inches of QPF through tonight. This
  could cause rises on area rivers and streams. With increase
  rainfall rates in the stronger showers/storms, ponding of
  water on roadways can be expected.

- Shower/storm chances increase for Thursday night into Friday.
  Severe potential is still to early to discern due to timing of
  front.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

At 19Z, surface analysis showed the main low pressure center
undergoing cyclogenesis in southwestern IA with 5mb/3hr
pressure falls over nwrn WI. A maritime tropical airmass warm
front was located roughly along I-80 with gusting southerly
winds to 25-30kt. Secondary frontal boundary extends as an
inverted trough from the low to about Duluth...another area of
convergence and destabilization occurring south of it.

Mainly monitoring the return flow and destabilization over the
next hours as the wind field is in place. KDMX wind profile has
70+ 0-6km bulk shear, and 37 kts in the 0-1km layer with a
potent 300 m2/s2 of 0-500m SRH. A very serious wind profile for
supercell tornadoes, and severe weather in general.

Using WoFS guidance over the area, values of 5+ surge northward
to about I-94 (remarkably!) but just south of the Twin Cities
by 6 pm, so some serious destabilization with big dynamical lift
coming in. There seems to be a slight preference for southeast
MN into northcentral WI for a higher probability footprint for
0-2km vertical vorticity swaths over nc IA into sern MN, with
more sporadic signals further south, meaning there may be a
slight preference for that area through 6 pm for tornadoes.
Current forecast is on track, with generally a 5pm to 9 pm
window from I-35 to I-39 in WI.

Also, there is signal that an initial line will move in to the
western areas just east of I-35, but storms will develop out
ahead and possibly a discrete phase of storms along the Miss
river in concert. This is verified in the HRRR and WOFS runs
over the past many hours. So, be careful with assuming steady
state motion of the initial storms and no downstream
development.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

This Evening into Thursday

Latest water vapor satellite imagery indicates vigorous shortwave
trough over eastern Nebraska and producing showers/storms across
western Iowa/southern Minnesota. This shortwave trough will
lift northeastward over the forecast area late this afternoon
and evening and spread showers/storms into the forecast area.
Severe potential with the storms is expected with these storms
especially this evening and the details of the parameters are in
the above Mesoscale section. Main severe threat are damaging
winds and tornadoes.

With the recent 1 to 3 inches of rain falling over the southern
half of the forecast area...along with the potential of another
inch this afternoon/evening. This will cause rises on area
rivers and ponding of area roadways. In addition...precipitable
water values of around 1.50 inches and decent moisture
transport/deformation band setting up over the northern half of
the forecast area...rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches is
expected this evening/tonight...especially over north central
Wisconsin.

Cold front associated with shortwave trough moves east of the area
tonight. Subsidence behind cold front and tight pressure gradient
will allow for wind speeds to be 20 to 25 knots with gusts 30 to 35
knots across much of the forecast area.

Cooler airmass advects into the forecast area Wednesday. Much of the
forecast area will remain dry. However...north central Wisconsin
will continue to be under the influence of the shortwave trough.
With daytime heating...bufkit soundings showing instability and
breaking the cap over this area...scattered showers and few storms
will develop during the afternoon hours. These showers/storms will
diminish near sunset. Then...weak surface ridge builds into the
Upper Mississippi River Valley Thursday and area should remain dry
for much of the day.

Focus turns to Thursday night into Friday. Another shortwave trough
moves across the Northern Plains/Upper Great Lakes Region. There is
decent moisture convergence/vertical motion with the shortwave
trough. Showers/storms are expected and will move across the
forecast area west to east during the day Friday. Timing of
showers/storms continue to be an issue with the deterministic
GFS/NAM/ECMWF. Severe threat with the storms is still too early to
discern...based on timing of surface features/showers/storms.

Main forecast concerns from Friday night through
Tuesday are shower/storm chances through the forecast period. Flow
pattern aloft becomes west to east zonal flow across the Upper Great
Lakes Region early in the forecast period Saturday into Sunday.
Then...upper level trough develops over the Upper Great Lakes Region
late in the forecast period. Weak pieces of energy embedded in the
west to east flow aloft may produce some showers/storms Saturday
into Sunday...however these are low chances less than 40 percent.
With upper level trough digging over the Upper Great Lakes Region
shortwave troughs are expected to track over the Upper Mississippi
River Memorial Day into Tuesday. The main issue Memorial Day into
Tuesday is the placement/track of the shortwave troughs associated
with the upper level trough. This will impact where convection
develops over the forecast area and will continue chances of
scattered showers/storms for both days. High temperatures Saturday
into Tuesday are expected to be near to slightly below normal with
highs into the middle 60s to middle 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

A line of strong to severe storms is approaching KLSE. It will
affect this TAF site through 22.00z. Carried wind gusts up to 50
knots. Showers and storms will continue at KRST through 22.02z
and KLSE through 22.03z. In the wake of these storms, there will
be IFR/MVFR ceilings. These will last much of the night and then
become VFR between 22.13z and 22.15z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Flood Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.
IA...Flood Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ008>011-018-019-
     029-030.

&&

MESOSCALE...Baumgardt
DISCUSSION...DTJ
AVIATION...Boyne

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
259 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-230000-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
259 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Additional storms are expected through this evening with peak
time for severe storms from 5 to 9 PM. Damaging wind gusts, some
75mph+, tornadoes, some strong, and locally heavy rain are the
primary severe weather threats this afternoon and evening. Large
hail will also be possible. Be alert to the potential for
significant severe weather through this evening. Be extra weather
aware and prepared to take action and move to a safe
location/sturdy building away from trees.

Due to the multiple rounds of thunderstorms, localized areas may
receive several inches of rain. As a result, the threat for river
rises and flooding will be on the increase. Those with interests
along area creeks, streams, and rivers should monitor conditions.
Be prepared to alter travel plans during heavy rains or severe
weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The next chance for thunderstorms will be Friday. It is too early
to discern the severe weather threat at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed through this evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar scheduled.

NOFWD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
642 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 E Austin              43.67N 92.95W
05/21/2024                   Mower              MN   Public

            Large tree limb down.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
643 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Spring Grove            43.56N 91.64W
05/21/2024                   Houston            MN   Law Enforcement

            Power lines down.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
644 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Chatfield               43.84N 92.19W
05/21/2024                   Fillmore           MN   Public

            Large tree split in half.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
645 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Houston                 43.76N 91.57W
05/21/2024                   Houston            MN   Public

            Trees down in town.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
646 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Fayette                 42.84N 91.80W
05/21/2024                   Fayette            IA   Amateur Radio

            50 mph wind gusts knocked down trees near
            town.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
648 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 S La Crosse           43.80N 91.24W
05/21/2024                   La Crosse          WI   NWS Employee

            Several branches down, damaging some cars.

&&