Storm Warning 113, NWS Anchorage, AK

483 
FZAK62 PAFC 022351
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 2 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-031400-
351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1001 mb low at 58N 167W moves to 58N 166W at 1002 mb Thu morning 
and dissipates Thu afternoon. A strong low enters the western Bering
near 57N 165E at 971 mb Thu morning. The low continues east to 59N 
169W at 953 mb Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-031400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 2 2024

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SW 50 to 65 kt after
midnight with gusts to 80 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft building to 15 to 23 
ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...W wind 50 to 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt in the morning. Seas 
21 to 36 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 23 to 33 ft subsiding to
17 to 27 ft after midnight.
.FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-031400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 2 2024

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 30 to 45 kt becoming W 40 to 55 kt in the
afternoon with gusts to 65 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft building to 17 to 32
ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 to 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Seas 22 to 37 
ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-031400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 2 2024

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SW 30 to 45 kt after
midnight with gusts to 55 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 9 to 14 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.THU...W wind 50 to 65 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft 
building to 27 to 41 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 50 to 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt diminishing to 
40 to 55 kt after midnight. Seas 28 to 42 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 34 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-031400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 2 2024

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft building to 15 to 23 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Seas 22 to 37 
ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

290 
FZAK62 PAFC 031208
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
408 AM AKDT Thu Oct 3 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-040045-
408 AM AKDT Thu Oct 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 957 mb low at 59N 175E moves to 59N 164W at 963 mb for Sat 
morning. Its front pushes from the eastern Aleutians/Bering Sea
across the Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf of Alaska for Fri
morning.

$$

PKZ411-040045-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
408 AM AKDT Thu Oct 3 2024

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 19 to 34 ft building to 28 to
37 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 23 to 33 ft subsiding to 17
to 27 ft after midnight.
.FRI...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-040045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
408 AM AKDT Thu Oct 3 2024

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 to 45 kt becoming W 40 to 55 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft building to 17 to 32 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 23 to 37 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-040045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
408 AM AKDT Thu Oct 3 2024

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft building to 27 to
40 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 50 to 60 kt diminishing to 40 to 55 kt after
midnight. Seas 28 to 41 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 34 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-040045-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
408 AM AKDT Thu Oct 3 2024

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft building to 14 to 22 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 22 to 37 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 27 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

954 
FZAK62 PAFC 032302
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
302 PM AKDT Thu Oct 3 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-041215-
302 PM AKDT Thu Oct 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 952 mb low 120 nm Northwest of St. Paul moves to 130 nm North of
Cold Bay at 971 mb for Sat afternoon. Its front pushes across the
Alaska Peninsula and into the Gulf of Alaska for Fri morning. 

$$

PKZ411-041215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
302 PM AKDT Thu Oct 3 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 24 to 34 ft subsiding to 18 to
29 ft after midnight.
.FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 14 to
22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-041215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
302 PM AKDT Thu Oct 3 2024

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 24 to 39 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...NW wind 40 to 55 kt diminishing to 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 20 to 35 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-041215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
302 PM AKDT Thu Oct 3 2024

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 50 to 60 kt diminishing to 40 to 55 kt after
midnight. Seas 30 to 43 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 25 to 40 ft subsiding to 19 to 34
ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-041215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
302 PM AKDT Thu Oct 3 2024

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 23 to 38 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 24 to 39 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

377 
FZAK62 PAFC 032351
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
351 PM AKDT Thu Oct 3 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-041315-
351 PM AKDT Thu Oct 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 952 mb low at 59N 172W moves to 57N 164W at 971 mb Sat afternoon. 
Its front pushes across the Alaska Peninsula and into the Gulf of 
Alaska Fri morning.

$$

PKZ411-041315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
351 PM AKDT Thu Oct 3 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 24 to 34 ft subsiding to 18 to
28 ft after midnight.
.FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 14 to
22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-041315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
351 PM AKDT Thu Oct 3 2024

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 25 to 40 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...NW wind 40 to 55 kt diminishing to 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 20 to 35 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-041315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
351 PM AKDT Thu Oct 3 2024

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 50 to 60 kt diminishing to 40 to 55 kt after
midnight. Seas 30 to 43 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 25 to 40 ft subsiding to 19 to 34
ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-041315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
351 PM AKDT Thu Oct 3 2024

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 23 to 38 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 25 to 40 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

481 
FZAK62 PAFC 041157
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
357 AM AKDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-050100-
357 AM AKDT Fri Oct 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 954 mb low at 59N 169W moves to 56N 163W at 980 mb for Sun 
morning. Its front wraps over the Eastern Bering through Sun 
morning. A 980 mb low forms on the front near 53N 160W and moves 
to 55N 153W at 979 mb by Sunday morning. Its front extends over 
the Gulf of Alaska for Sun morning.

$$

PKZ411-050100-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
357 AM AKDT Fri Oct 4 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 35 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 14
to 22 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-050100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
357 AM AKDT Fri Oct 4 2024

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 to 55 kt diminishing to 30 to 45 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 25 to 40 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-050100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
357 AM AKDT Fri Oct 4 2024

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Gusts up to 65 kt. Seas 25 to 40 ft 
subsiding to 19 to 34 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

PKZ414-050100-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
357 AM AKDT Fri Oct 4 2024

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 24 to 39 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt becoming NW 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 30 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

641 
FZAK62 PAFC 042339
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
339 PM AKDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-051415-
339 PM AKDT Fri Oct 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 959 mb low at 58N 166W moves to 56N 163W at 980 mb Sun morning. 
Its front wraps over the Eastern Bering through Sun morning. The low 
moves into the western Gulf by Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-051415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
339 PM AKDT Fri Oct 4 2024

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-051415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
339 PM AKDT Fri Oct 4 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

PKZ413-051415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
339 PM AKDT Fri Oct 4 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 22 to 32 ft subsiding to 18 to
24 ft after midnight..
.SAT...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.WED...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ414-051415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
339 PM AKDT Fri Oct 4 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt becoming NW 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 31 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
435 PM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Southcentral finds itself between two strong upper-level troughs,
and with weak ridging building at the surface, conditions across
the region have cleared. Weak continued offshore flow and a push
of dry air from the north has allowed for dewpoints in the teens
and 20s to push into the Copper River Basin and down into the Mat-
Su Valley, though not as far south at the Anchorage Bowl.
Elsewhere, winds and/or more cloud cover will help to prevent
temperatures from falling to low. Cold temperatures are expected
across the larger area of Southcentral Wednesday morning, with
exceptions expected to include locations directly along the Gulf
coast such as Cordova and Seward. For areas in the Copper Basin
where skies have remained clear and winds have calmed,
temperatures will fall to below freezing by Wednesday morning.

This lull and period of clearer weather appears to expire by late
Wednesday afternoon and evening, filling in skies over much of
Southcentral and bringing rain to the coast as a new low pressure
system fills into the northern Gulf of Alaska. As the low lifts,
it is expected to weaken, bringing showery conditions to the
coastal zones through Thursday. This system is expected to be
supported later by a following stronger system in the Bering Sea
that will push a relatively stronger front into the Gulf of Alaska
by Friday. This pattern may maintain the wet pattern across the
Gulf Coast into the weekend, with interior Southcentral appearing
mostly dry, but more cloudy.

-CL

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

* HIGH WIND WATCH in effect for the Western, Central and Eastern
  Aleutians Thursday into Friday

Weak onshore flow coincident with a weak upper level shortwave
continues areas of low stratus and scattered showers across the
Kuskokwim Delta this afternoon. While conditions are expected to
clear out tonight, redevelopment of fog is possible across the
Kuskokwim Delta and possibly further south along the Bristol Bay
coast as well.

Further west over the Bering, a longwave trough axis will dive
south and get stretched out over Southwest Alaska on Wednesday. At
the surface, a broad but weak low will push its front eastward
through the Bering, weakening as it reaches the Southwest coast
Wednesday evening.

A robust hurricane-force low off the coast of Kamchatka enters
the western Bering Sea for Thursday. Its front will move over the
Pribilofs and central/eastern Aleutians Thursday morning bringing
southeasterly gales and rain throughout the day Thursday. There is
still spread among the ensemble model guidance on the strength
and exact track of the low as it moves eastward. If the low moves
farther north, winds may be less intense for the Aleutians as the
strongest hurricane force winds associated with modest cold air
advection on its backside stays over the water, while a southerly
track could result in even stronger winds.

Regardless, very strong winds and high seas (nearing 30 to 40
feet in the southern Bering) can be expected as the low quickly
deepens to near/just below 960 mb. A High Wind Watch is in effect
for the entire Aleutian chain. For the western Aleutians, gusts up
to 85 mph are possible late Wednesday night through Thursday
afternoon, and Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for
the central Aleutians. For the eastern Aleutians, gusts up to 75
mph are possible Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. For
the Pribilof Islands, winds will turn westerly behind the low as
it moves east Thursday night into Friday. Gusts to of 55 to 65 mph
are expected Friday morning through Friday evening before slowly
diminishing. The duration and magnitude of the westerly winds will
be highly dependent on storm track. A more southerly track will
allow for a lull in the strongest winds late Thursday through
early Friday morning before the winds shift to the west. A more
northerly storm track will allow for a quick wind shift from
southeast to west and a longer duration of stronger winds. If the
northerly track takes shape, wind gusts could be stronger, closer
to 60 to 70 mph. However, confidence in this storm track and the
higher wind gusts is low.

The low's initial front with south/southeasterly gales pushes
into southwest Alaska Thursday evening and stalls out and weakens,
bringing a period of elevated winds and light to moderate rain
through Friday morning. Given the fronts orientation and fetch,
coastal flooding concerns are none to low at this time.

Eovino

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

The focus in the long-term continues to be a strong storm system
moving from the southeastern Bering late Friday across the AKPen
and into the western Gulf by Sunday morning.

There is high confidence that storm force (55-73 mph) wind gusts
will persist across the eastern half of the Aleutian Chain, as
well as parts of the AKPen, late Friday as the storm system begins
to weaken and drift southeast toward Bristol Bay. As the low
moves south of Kodiak Island Sunday, gusty northwesterly winds
will continue across the eastern Aleutians and AKPen, albeit
slowly trending downward, with widespread gale-force winds and
storm-force gusts Saturday weakening to gale-force gusts by
Sunday.

Farther east, the occluded front associated with the low will
will weaken and become more east-west oriented over Southwest
Alaska by Saturday morning. The strong southeasterly winds
expected Friday will diminish as the front shifts, with winds
becoming more northeasterly on Saturday then northwesterly by
late Sunday. The precipitation along the front will also diminish
from north to south through early Sunday as the northerly wind
flow ushers in cooler and drier air.

The aforementioned occluded front enters the western Gulf late
Friday with rain and strong easterly gales across Kodiak Island.
The front then lifts to the north Gulf coast Saturday morning as
the parent low drifts south across the AKPen. A strong easterly
barrier jet is expected to develop along the coast for Saturday.
The east-southeasterly flow aloft out ahead of the front will also
drive copious amounts of moisture into the coast and over the
coastal mountains. Precipitation will continue into Sunday as
trailing upper-level waves lift south to north across the Gulf in
the wake of the initial front. The track and strength of these
features will dictate where the heaviest precipitation falls.
However, an increase in instability with these waves will bring
about a more convective and showery nature to the precipitation,
potentially leading to waves of moderate to heavy precipitation
along the coast into early next week.

-TM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light southerly winds are expected
through the forecast period.

&&