High Wind Warning 13, NWS Albuquerque, NM

490 
WWUS75 KABQ 020148
NPWABQ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
748 PM MDT Mon Apr 1 2024

NMZ238-240-020300-
/O.EXP.KABQ.HW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240402T0200Z/
Chaves County Plains-Southwest Chaves County-
748 PM MDT Mon Apr 1 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

Although a few gusts may persist, winds will continue to decrease 
through the evening, therefore the High Wind Warning will be allowed 
to expire.

$$

Guyer

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
554 AM MDT Mon Apr 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 AM MDT Mon Apr 1 2024

April begins on a cooler and wetter note for northern, western,
and central areas behind a strong front with dry and windy
conditions across east central and southeast New Mexico.
Accumulating snow will be limited to the western and northern
mountains and Raton Pass area. Showers will taper off Monday night
for most lingering longest across northeast NM. Some showers
still be possible across central and southwest areas during the day
Tuesday. Warmer and dry conditions return Wednesday and Thursday.
Strong winds ramp up Friday ahead of the next storm system with
critical fire weather conditions across the Rio Grande Valley and
eastern plains. A sharp cooldown arrives, especially across
western and central areas, Saturday with some snow showers across
north central and western areas and dry and very windy conditions
across the middle Rio Grande Valley and eastern New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM MDT Mon Apr 1 2024

Upper level disturbance responsible for the previous days' unsettled
weather is becoming increasingly disorganized as it migrates inland.
Evidence of the original closed low circulation tracking across the
northern Baja is still evident on visible satellite, while a second
center moves across the Great Basin. A two-tiered frontal assault
will commence today as the Pacific portion charges eastward beyond
the central mts, while a backdoor front descends into the eastern
plains this evening into tonight. At the base of the system, a stout
jet max will cruise across portions of the southeastern plains
today, bringing strong southwesterly and westerly wind gusts in the
afternoon. With ample mixing heights and clearing across Chaves Co,
wind speeds will likely reach advisory criteria with some
uncertainty that they may also have enough gumption to reach warning
criteria. Given guidance continues to point to the lesser speeds,
did opt to add a Wind Advisory for the Chaves Co plains for the
afternoon. Should the stronger winds track further northward, an
upgrade may be required in the morning update. As the system treks
eastward, rain and snow showers will expand in coverage and
intensity. Precipitation will fill in across the middle and lower
RGV this morning and may bring a brief bout of snowfall to the ABQ
metro in and around the morning commute. Potential for thunder will
exist in the afternoon as instability increases, particularly across
the western and northern high terrain. Temperatures will be
dramatically cooler today than yesterday, with most locales seeing
reduction in afternoon highs of around 15F to 20F.

The low reorganizes over northeastern NM Monday evening amongst
ample moisture, providing invigorated forcing to shower activity. As
winds across the eastern plains shift northerly during this
timeframe, an area of enhanced sfc convergence will lead to robust
snowfall across the Sangre de Cristo Mts and the Johnson/Bartlett
Mesas (including Raton Pass). Did maintain the previously issued
winter weather highlights with no changes. The low ejects into the
Great Plains Monday night, with precipitation tracking with the
frontal boundary down the eastern plains. Lingering showers will
favor the high terrain on Tuesday but elsewhere will see drying
conditions amongst well below normal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 250 AM MDT Mon Apr 1 2024

Any shower activity across central and southwestern areas from an
positively tiled trailing trough dissipates around sunset due to the
loss of daytime heating with clear skies overnight. The trough
feature becomes a weekly defined low over northern Mexico near the
Big Bend Wednesday. However, upper level riding over the Great Basin
and intermountain West will be the more prominent feature resulting
in clear skies, warmer temperatures by around 10 to 15 degrees
compared to Tuesday, and light winds. The warmup continues Thursday
with temperatures slightly above normal for early April as the ridge
axis moves east into the High Plains in response to the next Pacific
upper low moving into the Pacific coast. Light southerly breezes are
expected areawide due to weak surface lee troughing across the high
plains.

South winds really strengthen areawide on Friday as the upper level
ridge continues exiting east over the Great Plains as the
aforementioned deep upper level low moves over the Great Basin.
Guidance is already indicating close to or achieving Wind Advisory
criteria for western NM and the northeast and far northeast
highlands due to deep mixing tapping into 45 to 55 kt winds at 500-
700 mb. These winds could increase as we get closer if trends
continues. The middle RGV including Albuquerque and Socorro could
see Wind Advisory criteria due to the south winds funneling up the
valley. Critical fire weather looks to occur across the middle RGV
and eastern NM due to winds and relative humidity values below 15%
(see more details in fire weather discussion). Temperatures cool a
little across western NM due to lower upper level heights. The
Pacific front and precipitation associated with the eastward moving
upper low looks to enter western and north central NM Friday night
into Saturday morning as the base of the upper low centered across
the Idaho Nevada and Utah borders slides through the state. A sharp
cooldown will follow this front, especially across western and parts
of central NM. 700 mb temperatures nosedive from 3 to 5 deg C ahead
of the front to -6 to -10 deg C behind it. This means that any
precipitation across north central and western NM will quickly
transition to snow come Saturday morning. High temperatures on
Saturday across western and central NM based on this package will be
15 to 20 degrees colder compared to Friday. Areas along and east of
the central mountain chain look to be dryslotted behind the Pacific
front Saturday due to the downslope west flow. West winds behind the
Pacific front will be very strong due to 50 to 70 kt 500-700 mb
winds at the base of the low and a developing 993 mb lee surface low
over southeast Colorado. A widespread area of Wind Advisory criteria
winds is already depicted across the central mountain chain and
eastern NM. High wind gusts are not out of the question Saturday
afternoon. With this, areas of blowing dust could be possible along
with critical fire weather conditions due to the winds combining
with the below normal soil moisture. West winds should slowly taper
off after sunset. High temperatures moderate a couple of degree on
Sunday under mostly sunny skies as the low exits into the central
Great Plains and shortwave ridging moves overhead. Winds will still
be breezy to locally winds along and east of the central mountain
chain due to brisk upper level northwest flow. The break is brief
however as another upper low dives southeast into the desert
southwest early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM MDT Mon Apr 1 2024

Unsettled weather will create MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys throughout the
TAF period as the fropa continues across nrn and centrl NM. Shwrs
are currently pushing into the central valleys with reductions to
cigs/vsbys in and around KABQ and KAEG are expected to persist
through the morning hours. RA may transition over to SN with
ceilings lowering below alternate criteria at KABQ thru 01/16Z.
The fropa will advance ewd to ern NM during the aftn with a
resulting wly wind shift. Gusty winds may create areas of BLDU
across the sern plains, especially in and around KROW aft 01/20Z.
A backdoor front will dive down the ern plains in the late aftn
through the overnight allowing for coverage of shwrs and nly winds
to expand across nern NM and the east centrl plains, including
KLVS and KTCC, through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 AM MDT Mon Apr 1 2024

Unsettled weather will continue to limit critical fire weather
conditions through Tuesday. Minimum relative humidity will see a
generous uptick today, with most areas see improvement of 20 to 40
percent. Winds will continue to be breezy to locally windy across
portions of central New Mexico, relaxing significantly across
northern New Mexico. A warming and drying trend will take hold
Wednesday and Thursday, with widespread elevated fire weather
conditions possible Thursday as minimum RH falls into the teens and
low double digits. The potential for widespread critical fire
weather conditions returns Friday as another upper level disturbance
makes its approach. Strong south winds will dominate in the
afternoon amongst humidity in the low double digits most areas.
Unfavorable conditions will persist on Saturday with winds turning
more westerly and continued low humidity in the teens. The strongest
winds are anticipated to favor western zones on Friday, while
Saturday will see the strongest winds in eastern New Mexico. Winds
will relax on Sunday but even drier conditions are expected across
eastern New Mexico and the Rio Grande Valley with single digit
relative humidity possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  54  30  61  31 /  30  10   0   0
Dulce...........................  48  23  57  23 /  60  30   0   0
Cuba............................  46  26  54  28 /  70  30  10   0
Gallup..........................  46  23  56  24 /  70  20   5   0
El Morro........................  39  26  49  26 /  80  40  10   0
Grants..........................  45  25  54  25 /  70  20  10   0
Quemado.........................  41  26  49  26 /  70  10  20   0
Magdalena.......................  45  30  50  33 /  90   5  20   5
Datil...........................  41  26  47  27 /  70  10  20   5
Reserve.........................  48  24  55  26 /  60  10  20   0
Glenwood........................  50  32  59  36 /  70  10  30   5
Chama...........................  43  20  51  23 /  70  50   5   0
Los Alamos......................  43  31  50  32 /  80  40  20   0
Pecos...........................  47  28  49  28 /  60  50  30   0
Cerro/Questa....................  44  27  45  29 /  70  80   5   0
Red River.......................  42  18  43  20 /  80  90  10   0
Angel Fire......................  40  15  42  17 /  70  80  10   0
Taos............................  47  22  51  22 /  60  70   5   0
Mora............................  47  24  48  25 /  60  70  10   0
Espanola........................  50  31  58  29 /  60  50  10   0
Santa Fe........................  45  30  50  31 /  70  60  20   0
Santa Fe Airport................  48  30  55  30 /  60  40  20   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  50  37  57  38 /  80  20  20   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  51  36  58  37 /  80  20  20   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  54  35  60  35 /  80  10  10   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  52  36  59  36 /  70  10  10   0
Belen...........................  55  34  59  32 /  80  10  10   5
Bernalillo......................  52  36  58  36 /  70  20  10   0
Bosque Farms....................  54  33  60  33 /  80  10  10   0
Corrales........................  53  35  59  35 /  70  20  10   0
Los Lunas.......................  54  33  60  33 /  80  10  10   0
Placitas........................  47  34  54  35 /  70  30  20   0
Rio Rancho......................  52  36  58  35 /  70  20  10   0
Socorro.........................  57  36  58  37 /  90   5  10   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  43  31  49  33 /  80  30  20   0
Tijeras.........................  45  32  52  34 /  80  30  30   5
Edgewood........................  45  30  51  30 /  80  30  20   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  48  28  54  25 /  70  30  20   0
Clines Corners..................  45  27  49  28 /  60  40  20   0
Mountainair.....................  44  29  50  30 /  90  20  20   5
Gran Quivira....................  46  28  50  30 /  90  20  30   5
Carrizozo.......................  51  33  54  35 /  90  10  30   5
Ruidoso.........................  44  28  46  31 /  90  20  40   5
Capulin.........................  51  25  45  25 /  80  80   5   0
Raton...........................  54  27  51  24 /  70  90   5   0
Springer........................  55  29  53  24 /  60  80   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  49  27  49  28 /  30  60  10   0
Clayton.........................  61  31  54  32 /  80  90   5   0
Roy.............................  55  31  52  29 /  50  80  10   0
Conchas.........................  62  37  59  32 /  40  70  10   0
Santa Rosa......................  56  35  56  31 /  40  50  10   0
Tucumcari.......................  64  34  57  31 /  50  60  10   0
Clovis..........................  67  36  57  33 /  50  20  10   0
Portales........................  70  35  58  31 /  50  20  10   0
Fort Sumner.....................  62  36  59  31 /  60  30  10   0
Roswell.........................  69  41  64  36 /  30   5   5   0
Picacho.........................  59  35  56  34 /  40   5  10   0
Elk.............................  55  32  53  32 /  50   5  30   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ206-
208-210-211.

Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ213>215.

Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 3 AM MDT Tuesday for
NMZ227.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
for NMZ238-240.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...12