Severe Thunderstorm Warning 252, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
620 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 444 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

A meandering frontal boundary will continue to drive active
weather conditions through the next 36 hours across the Ark-La-
Tex. Northwesterly flow aloft, ahead of an upper trough over the
Great Lakes, will continue to work in combination with this
frontal boundary to funnel embedded disturbances our way. This
includes one shortwave in particular that keeps activity going
through most of the day today, producing multiple rounds of
thunderstorms. This includes elevated supercells capable of
damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes in the process,
according to short-range guidance. With ample ingredients for
these severe weather hazards (including mid-level lapse rates
around 7 C/km or greater) present, Severe Thunderstorm Watch #279
was issued until 10 AM CDT.

Temperature maximums are expected to be moderated into a range in
the upper 80s and low-to-mid 90s as a result. Another round of
thunderstorms will redevelop later this afternoon/evening,
continuing into the overnight hours and moderating temperature
minimums into the upper 60s and low 70s tonight. By tomorrow, more
of the shortwave disturbances will have shifted eastward, and so
will the better chances of precipitation. While eastern zones
retain some potential more severe thunderstorms, slightly quieter
conditions elsewhere will allow for temperature maximums in the
upper 80s and low-to-mid 90s once again. /16/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 444 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

By Wednesday night, the threat of severe weather should be largely
diminishing across our region as the last in a series of shortwave
disturbances gradually shifts from the Middle Red River Valley into
the Lower MS Valley and points eastward. At least for the evening
hours, anticipate scattered convection to remain active over mainly
the northern and eastern parts of our region as the shortwave shifts
overhead invof the persistent quasi-stationary frontal boundary. So
despite the general downward trend in convection expected later in
overnight hours, cannot completely rule out a few strong or even an
isolated severe storm through the evening as the shortwave interacts
with the sfc boundary. Once again, this would likely be across those
northern and eastern zones, including much of southern Arkansas and
northern Louisiana.

Beyond Wednesday night, rain chances will really begin to drop off
overall as a dominant upper-level ridge axis to our SW across Mexico
begins to exert even greater influence across our region. This won't
entirely eliminate the chance of diurnally-driven convection across
the region, but daily coverage should be largely confined to our far
northern and eastern zones by late week into the upcoming weekend.

Of course, the bigger headline will involve the building heat wave
that is expected to commence during this late week timeframe with
high temperatures expected to climb into the mid and upper 90s for
nearly the entire region except for possibly our extreme northern
counties. Regardless, it appears the upper-level ridge will serve to
keep any fronts north of the region and therefore limit convection
for most areas. In fact, there is still some chance that isolated
triple-digit high temperatures could occur in our southern zones by
the end of this week and into the weekend given the strength of the
ridge axis. This may very well result in our first heat advisories
of the season if this indeed pans out by the time we wrap up the
week.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

For the 13/12Z TAF update, MFR/IFR cloud decks from convective
activity to the west will continue as the period begins. This TSRA activity
is expected to last through the rest of the period with more MVFR/IFR
vis/cigs possible as a result. /16/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  72  91  73 /  50  50  30  30
MLU  90  71  91  71 /  60  50  40  40
DEQ  81  66  87  66 /  80  60  30  40
TXK  85  70  90  70 /  90  60  30  40
ELD  84  67  88  67 /  80  70  40  50
TYR  89  72  92  73 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  89  71  91  72 /  50  40  30  20
LFK  96  74  96  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...16

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
520 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072-LAZ001>003-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-141030-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-McCurtain-Red River-Bowie-Franklin-
Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-
520 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 279 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Arkansas, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect through 10 AM this morning.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected today through tonight as
a stationary frontal boundary continues to linger across the region.
In addition, a series of strong upper-level disturbances will move
southeast along the Middle Red River Valley, interacting with the
surface front to help increase thunderstorm coverage and intensity.
Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threats, but
an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out across parts of
the I-20 and I-30 corridors. Finally, areas of heavy rainfall may
also pose a threat of localized flash flooding with thunderstorms
that train over the same areas, especially along the I-30 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms will persist through
Wednesday and Wednesday night as the frontal boundary is expected to
remain nearly stationary and linger across the region. In addition,
small disturbances in the upper-level northwest flow pattern will
combine with the front to further enhance thunderstorm chances. As a
result, damaging wind gusts and large hail will remain possible. An
isolated tornado also cannot be ruled out. By late week and through
the weekend, thunderstorm chances will decrease while temperatures
increase into the mid and upper 90s to near 100 degrees with heat
advisory conditions possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed through tonight and possibly
again on Wednesday.

ARZ073-LAZ004>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ149>153-165>167-141030-
Union-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-
Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
520 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas, north
central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana, east Texas and northeast
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected today through tonight as
a stationary frontal boundary continues to linger across the region.
In addition, a series of strong upper-level disturbances will move
southeast along the Middle Red River Valley, interacting with the
surface front to help increase thunderstorm coverage and intensity.
Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threats, but
an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out across parts of
the I-20 corridor. Finally, areas of heavy rainfall may also pose a
threat of localized flash flooding with thunderstorms that train over
the same areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms will persist through
Wednesday and Wednesday night as the frontal boundary is expected to
remain nearly stationary and linger across the region. In addition,
small disturbances in the upper-level northwest flow pattern will
combine with the front to further enhance thunderstorm chances. As a
result, damaging wind gusts and large hail will remain possible. An
isolated tornado also cannot be ruled out. By late week and through
the weekend, thunderstorm chances will decrease while temperatures
increase into the mid and upper 90s to near 100 degrees with heat
advisory conditions possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed through tonight and possibly
again on Wednesday.

19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
539 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

OKZ077-131130-
McCurtain OK-
539 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
McCurtain County through 630 AM CDT...

At 538 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Oleta, or 21 miles northeast of Hugo, moving east at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Broken Bow, Wright City, Rufe, Glover, Slim, Bethel, Ringold, Mount
Herman and Sherwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3439 9477 3404 9472 3407 9516 3424 9515
      3425 9505 3433 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 1038Z 264DEG 24KT 3419 9521

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

05