Wind Advisory 13, NWS Phoenix, AZ

Issued

Feb 14, 2023, 2:18 PM PST (22:18 UTC)

In effect from

Feb 14, 2023, 7:00 PM PST

Expired

Feb 14, 2023, 10:00 PM PST

In force

3 hr

Issued by

NWS Phoenix, AZ

Counties Imperial County, CA, Riverside County, CA

The San Diego radar (KNKX), 137 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

255 
WWUS75 KPSR 142218
NPWPSR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
318 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2023

CAZ563-566-567-150600-
/O.UPG.KPSR.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-230215T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KPSR.WI.Y.0013.230215T0300Z-230215T0600Z/
/O.EXB.KPSR.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230215T0300Z/
Salton Sea-Imperial County West-Imperial Valley-
Including the cities of Desert Shores, Coolidge Springs, 
Salton City, Winona, Coyote Wells, Plaster City, El Centro, 
Calexico, Alamorio, and Brawley
218 PM PST Tue Feb 14 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the High Wind Warning, west winds 30 to 40 mph with
  gusts up to 60 to 65 mph. For the Wind Advisory, west to northwest
  winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Salton Sea, Western Imperial County and Imperial 
  Valley.

* WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, until 7 PM PST this evening. 
  For the Wind Advisory, from 7 PM to 10 PM PST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Very difficult driving conditions, especially for 
  larger vehicles traveling along roads with crosswinds. Light, 
  unsecured objects will become airborne. Moderate tree and 
  minor structural damage possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. In addition,
strong winds over desert areas could result in briefly lowered
visibilities to well under a mile at times in blowing dust or
blowing sand. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

CAZ562-150600-
/O.CON.KPSR.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230215T0600Z/
Imperial County Southwest-
218 PM PST Tue Feb 14 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 35 to 55 mph with gusts up to 65 to 70 mph.

* WHERE...Southwest corner of Imperial County.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM PST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Very difficult driving conditions, especially for 
  larger vehicles traveling along roads with crosswinds. Light, 
  unsecured objects will become airborne. Moderate tree and 
  minor structural damage possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. In addition,
strong winds over desert areas could result in briefly lowered
visibilities to well under a mile at times in blowing dust or
blowing sand. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

AZZ552-558-561-150900-
/O.CON.KPSR.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230215T0900Z/
Superior-Pinal/Superstition Mountains-Dripping Springs-
Including the cities of Superior, Hayden, and Winkelman
318 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM MST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 to 65 
  mph expected.

* WHERE...Superior, Pinal/Superstition Mountains and Dripping 
  Springs.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM MST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Very difficult driving conditions, especially for 
  larger vehicles traveling along roads with crosswinds. Light, 
  unsecured objects will become airborne. Moderate tree and 
  minor structural damage possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. In addition,
strong winds over desert areas could result in briefly lowered
visibilities to well under a mile at times in blowing dust or
blowing sand. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

AZZ553-554-559-150600-
/O.CON.KPSR.DU.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-230215T0400Z/
/O.CON.KPSR.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-230215T0600Z/
Northwest Pinal County-West Pinal County-
Sonoran Desert Natl Monument-
Including the cities of Casa Grande, Florence, Coolidge, and Kaka
318 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2023

...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS
EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Blowing Dust Advisory, visibility between one 
  quarter mile and one mile in blowing dust. For the Wind 
  Advisory, southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 to 
  50 mph.

* WHERE...Northwest Pinal County, West Pinal County and Sonoran 
  Desert National Monument.

* WHEN...For the Blowing Dust Advisory, until 9 PM MST this 
  evening. For the Wind Advisory, until 11 PM MST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to reduced 
  visibility. Difficult driving conditions, especially for 
  larger vehicles traveling along roads with crosswinds. Light, 
  unsecured objects may become airborne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be ready for a sudden drop in visibility. If you encounter
blowing dust or blowing sand on the roadway or see it
approaching, pull off the road as far as possible and put your
vehicle in park. Turn the lights all the way off and keep your
foot off the brake pedal.

Remember, pull aside, stay alive.

A Wind Advisory means that sustained wind speeds of between
30 and 40 mph are expected, or wind gusts of between 40 and
58 mph. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially
for high profile vehicles. In addition, strong winds over desert
areas could result in briefly lowered visibilities to well under
a mile at times in blowing dust or blowing sand. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

AZZ551-150600-
/O.CON.KPSR.DU.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-230215T0400Z/
/O.CON.KPSR.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-230215T0600Z/
Southeast Valley/Queen Creek-
Including the cities of Sun Lakes and Queen Creek
318 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2023

...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS
EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Blowing Dust Advisory, visibility between one 
  quarter mile and one mile in blowing dust. For the Wind 
  Advisory, southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Southeast Valley/Queen Creek.

* WHEN...For the Blowing Dust Advisory, until 9 PM MST this 
  evening. For the Wind Advisory, until 11 PM MST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to reduced 
  visibility. Difficult driving conditions, especially for 
  larger vehicles traveling along roads with crosswinds. Light, 
  unsecured objects may become airborne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be ready for a sudden drop in visibility. If you encounter
blowing dust or blowing sand on the roadway or see it
approaching, pull off the road as far as possible and put your
vehicle in park. Turn the lights all the way off and keep your
foot off the brake pedal.

Remember, pull aside, stay alive.

A Wind Advisory means that sustained wind speeds of between
30 and 40 mph are expected, or wind gusts of between 40 and
58 mph. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially
for high profile vehicles. In addition, strong winds over desert
areas could result in briefly lowered visibilities to well under
a mile at times in blowing dust or blowing sand. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

AZZ555-150900-
/O.CON.KPSR.DU.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-230215T0400Z/
/O.CON.KPSR.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-230215T0900Z/
Apache Junction/Gold Canyon-
Including the city of Apache Junction
318 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2023

...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS
EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM MST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Blowing Dust Advisory, visibility between one 
  quarter mile and one mile in blowing dust. For the Wind 
  Advisory, southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 to 
  55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Apache Junction/Gold Canyon.

* WHEN...For the Blowing Dust Advisory, until 9 PM MST this 
  evening. For the Wind Advisory, until 2 AM MST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to reduced 
  visibility. Difficult driving conditions, especially for 
  larger vehicles traveling along roads with crosswinds. Light, 
  unsecured objects may become airborne. Minor tree damage 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be ready for a sudden drop in visibility. If you encounter
blowing dust or blowing sand on the roadway or see it
approaching, pull off the road as far as possible and put your
vehicle in park. Turn the lights all the way off and keep your
foot off the brake pedal.

Remember, pull aside, stay alive.

A Wind Advisory means that sustained wind speeds of between
30 and 40 mph are expected, or wind gusts of between 40 and
58 mph. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially
for high profile vehicles. In addition, strong winds over desert
areas could result in briefly lowered visibilities to well under
a mile at times in blowing dust or blowing sand. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

CAZ560-150600-
/O.CON.KPSR.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-230215T0600Z/
Joshua Tree NP West-
Including the cities of Cottonwood Visitor and Lost Horse-Keys
Village
218 PM PST Tue Feb 14 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 to 55 
  mph.

* WHERE...Western portion of Joshua Tree National Park.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM PST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Difficult driving conditions, especially for larger 
  vehicles traveling along roads with crosswinds. Light, 
  unsecured objects may become airborne. Minor tree damage 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained wind speeds of between
30 and 40 mph are expected, or wind gusts of between 40 and
58 mph. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially
for high profile vehicles. In addition, strong winds over desert
areas could result in briefly lowered visibilities to well under
a mile at times in blowing dust or blowing sand. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

AZZ535-539-150600-
/O.CON.KPSR.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-230215T0600Z/
Southeast Yuma County-Gila Bend-
Including the cities of Gila Bend and Sentinel
318 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Southeast Yuma County and Gila Bend.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM MST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Difficult driving conditions, especially for larger 
  vehicles traveling along roads with crosswinds. Light, 
  unsecured objects may become airborne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained wind speeds of between
30 and 40 mph are expected, or wind gusts of between 40 and
58 mph. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially
for high profile vehicles. In addition, strong winds over desert
areas could result in briefly lowered visibilities to well under
a mile at times in blowing dust or blowing sand. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

AZZ530>533-536-CAZ561-564-565-568>570-150600-
/O.CON.KPSR.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-230215T0600Z/
Parker Valley-Kofa-Yuma-Central La Paz-Gila River Valley-
Joshua Tree NP East-Chuckwalla Mountains-
Imperial County Southeast-Chiriaco Summit-Palo Verde Valley-
Chuckwalla Valley-
Including the cities of Parker, Ehrenberg, Palm Canyon, Yuma, 
Fortuna Foothills, Brenda, Harcuvar, Quartzsite, Vicksburg, 
Vicksburg Junction, Salome, Ligurta, 
Imperial Hot Mineral Springs, Winterhaven, Chiriaco Summit, 
Martinez Lake, Blythe, Palo Verde, Ripley, and Midland
318 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2023 /218 PM PST Tue Feb 14 2023/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST /10 PM PST/
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest Arizona and southeast and 
  southern California.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM MST /10 PM PST/ this evening.

* IMPACTS...Difficult driving conditions, especially for larger 
  vehicles traveling along roads with crosswinds. Light, 
  unsecured objects may become airborne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained wind speeds of between
30 and 40 mph are expected, or wind gusts of between 40 and
58 mph. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially
for high profile vehicles. In addition, strong winds over desert
areas could result in briefly lowered visibilities to well under
a mile at times in blowing dust or blowing sand. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

AZZ534-537-538-540>550-150600-
/O.CON.KPSR.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-230215T0600Z/
Aguila Valley-Northwest Valley-Tonopah Desert-Buckeye/Avondale-
Cave Creek/New River-Deer Valley-Central Phoenix-
North Phoenix/Glendale-New River Mesa-Scottsdale/Paradise Valley-
Rio Verde/Salt River-East Valley-Fountain Hills/East Mesa-
South Mountain/Ahwatukee-
Including the cities of Aguila, Gladden, Wickenburg, Circle City,
Surprise, Wittmann, Beardsley, Sun City West, Arlington, 
Hassayampa, Tonopah, Wintersburg, Avondale, Cashion, Goodyear, 
Liberty, Scottsdale, Peoria, Phoenix, Paradise Valley, 
Tortilla Flat, Mesa, Chandler, Tempe, Gilbert, and Fountain Hills
318 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 to 50 
  mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Arizona.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM MST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Difficult driving conditions, especially for larger 
  vehicles traveling along roads with crosswinds. Light, 
  unsecured objects may become airborne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained wind speeds of between
30 and 40 mph are expected, or wind gusts of between 40 and
58 mph. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially
for high profile vehicles. In addition, strong winds over desert
areas could result in briefly lowered visibilities to well under
a mile at times in blowing dust or blowing sand. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

AZZ556-557-560-562-563-150900-
/O.CON.KPSR.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-230215T0900Z/
Tonto Basin-Mazatzal Mountains-San Carlos-Globe/Miami-
Southeast Gila County-
Including the cities of Punkin Center, Sunflower, San Carlos, 
Globe, and Miami
318 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM MST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Tonto Basin, Mazatzal Mountains, San Carlos, 
  Globe/Miami and Southeast Gila County.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM MST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Difficult driving conditions, especially for larger 
  vehicles traveling along roads with crosswinds. Light, 
  unsecured objects may become airborne. Minor tree damage 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained wind speeds of between
30 and 40 mph are expected, or wind gusts of between 40 and
58 mph. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially
for high profile vehicles. In addition, strong winds over desert
areas could result in briefly lowered visibilities to well under
a mile at times in blowing dust or blowing sand. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

006 
WWUS75 KPSR 150550
NPWPSR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1050 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2023

CAZ562-150700-
/O.EXP.KPSR.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230215T0600Z/
Imperial County Southwest-
950 PM PST Tue Feb 14 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...

Winds have subsided, though breezy conditions will continue for
the next several hours.

$$

CAZ560-150700-
/O.EXP.KPSR.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-230215T0600Z/
Joshua Tree NP West-
Including the cities of Cottonwood Visitor and Lost Horse-Keys
Village
950 PM PST Tue Feb 14 2023

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...

Winds have subsided, though breezy conditions will continue for
the next several hours.

$$

CAZ563-566-567-150700-
/O.EXP.KPSR.WI.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-230215T0600Z/
Salton Sea-Imperial County West-Imperial Valley-
Including the cities of Desert Shores, Coolidge Springs, 
Salton City, Winona, Coyote Wells, Plaster City, El Centro, 
Calexico, Alamorio, and Brawley
950 PM PST Tue Feb 14 2023

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...

Winds have subsided, though breezy conditions will continue for
the next several hours.

$$

AZZ535-539-553-554-559-150700-
/O.EXP.KPSR.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-230215T0600Z/
Southeast Yuma County-Gila Bend-Northwest Pinal County-
West Pinal County-Sonoran Desert Natl Monument-
Including the cities of Gila Bend, Sentinel, Casa Grande, 
Florence, Coolidge, and Kaka
1050 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2023

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM MST THIS EVENING...

Winds have subsided, though breezy conditions will continue for
the next several hours.

$$

AZZ530>533-536-CAZ561-564-565-568>570-150700-
/O.EXP.KPSR.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-230215T0600Z/
Parker Valley-Kofa-Yuma-Central La Paz-Gila River Valley-
Joshua Tree NP East-Chuckwalla Mountains-
Imperial County Southeast-Chiriaco Summit-Palo Verde Valley-
Chuckwalla Valley-
Including the cities of Parker, Ehrenberg, Palm Canyon, Yuma, 
Fortuna Foothills, Brenda, Harcuvar, Quartzsite, Vicksburg, 
Vicksburg Junction, Salome, Ligurta, 
Imperial Hot Mineral Springs, Winterhaven, Chiriaco Summit, 
Martinez Lake, Blythe, Palo Verde, Ripley, and Midland
1050 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2023 /950 PM PST Tue Feb 14 2023/

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM MST /10 PM PST/ THIS
EVENING...

Winds have subsided, though breezy conditions will continue for
the next several hours.

$$

AZZ534-537-538-540>551-150700-
/O.EXP.KPSR.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-230215T0600Z/
Aguila Valley-Northwest Valley-Tonopah Desert-Buckeye/Avondale-
Cave Creek/New River-Deer Valley-Central Phoenix-
North Phoenix/Glendale-New River Mesa-Scottsdale/Paradise Valley-
Rio Verde/Salt River-East Valley-Fountain Hills/East Mesa-
South Mountain/Ahwatukee-Southeast Valley/Queen Creek-
Including the cities of Aguila, Gladden, Wickenburg, Circle City,
Surprise, Wittmann, Beardsley, Sun City West, Arlington, 
Hassayampa, Tonopah, Wintersburg, Avondale, Cashion, Goodyear, 
Liberty, Scottsdale, Peoria, Phoenix, Paradise Valley, 
Tortilla Flat, Mesa, Chandler, Tempe, Gilbert, Fountain Hills, 
Sun Lakes, and Queen Creek
1050 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2023

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM MST THIS EVENING...

Winds have subsided, though breezy conditions will continue for
the next several hours.

$$

AZZ552-558-561-150900-
/O.CON.KPSR.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230215T0900Z/
Superior-Pinal/Superstition Mountains-Dripping Springs-
Including the cities of Superior, Hayden, and Winkelman
1050 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM MST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph.

* WHERE...Superior, Pinal/Superstition Mountains and Dripping 
  Springs.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM MST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Very difficult driving conditions, especially for 
  larger vehicles traveling along roads with crosswinds. Light, 
  unsecured objects will become airborne. Moderate tree and 
  minor structural damage possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. In addition,
strong winds over desert areas could result in briefly lowered
visibilities to well under a mile at times in blowing dust or
blowing sand. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

AZZ555>557-560-562-563-150900-
/O.CON.KPSR.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-230215T0900Z/
Apache Junction/Gold Canyon-Tonto Basin-Mazatzal Mountains-
San Carlos-Globe/Miami-Southeast Gila County-
Including the cities of Apache Junction, Punkin Center, 
Sunflower, San Carlos, Globe, and Miami
1050 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM MST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Apache Junction/Gold Canyon, Tonto Basin, Mazatzal 
  Mountains, San Carlos, Globe/Miami and Southeast Gila County.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM MST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Difficult driving conditions, especially for larger 
  vehicles traveling along roads with crosswinds. Light, 
  unsecured objects may become airborne. Minor tree damage 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained wind speeds of between 30 
and 40 mph are expected, or wind gusts of between 40 and 58 mph. 
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. In addition, strong winds over desert areas 
could result in briefly lowered visibilities to well under a mile 
at times in blowing dust or blowing sand. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Feb 14, 1:32 PM PST, 46 minutes earlier.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
232 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather disturbance is bringing very windy conditions ahead of
a cold front today, which will sweep through the region this
evening. The winds are generating pockets of blowing dust. This
system is also bringing precipitation to the central Arizona lower
deserts and light snow accumulations for the higher terrain east
of Phoenix. Well below normal temperatures are anticipated
Wednesday and Thursday morning followed by a gradual warming
trend. More unsettled weather will be possible early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High wind, dust, rain, thunderstorms, snow, and colder temperatures
are all anticipated through the next 24 hours as a strong trough
digs down through the region. A glance at the map on weather.gov
will quickly prove this trough is expected be impactful. Several
watches, warnings, and advisories have been issued, with nearly
all of Arizona and Southern California covered by at least one
product.

High winds are expected to be the greatest impact through tonight.
Winds have already picked up across the region early this
afternoon, with some locations having already reached advisory-
level wind gusts (40+ mph), including Northwest Pinal County and
parts of Southeast California. A very strong jet streak (150 kts
sampled around 350mb from the 12Z Medford, OR sounding) is helping
drive a deep trough rapidly down the western CONUS. Water vapor
satellite and objective analysis still have the trough near
southern Nevada. A surface cold front recently went through Las
Vegas, NV and resulted in wind gusts up to 60 mph. As the trough
axis and cold front gets closer, the gradient winds will only
increase across the area. So, surface wind speeds are still
expected to increase through the afternoon and likely peak late
this afternoon through this evening. Widespread 30-40 mph wind
gusts are likely, with ~50% chance for 40+ mph peak gusts. The
will be a chance for 50-60+ mph wind gusts as well, with HREF
probabilities favoring high terrain spots east of Phoenix and in
Southwest Imperial County CA. Wind Advisories and High Wind
Warnings are in effect and run through the late evening.

With the strong winds, blowing dust will be a threat through this
afternoon and evening. A considerable dust channel has been
observed on the satellite dust channel and webcams in northern
Imperial County this afternoon. A Dust Advisory has been issued to
cover this. A Blowing Dust Advisory is also in place across the
dust prone Pinal County through this evening. Although dust has
not been observed as of 2PM MST, dust could still become an issue
as gusts increase.

Light low-topped showers developed earlier this morning in the
foothills north of Phoenix and continue to develop further south,
now spread across most of the Phoenix area. Aircraft soundings
still show a dry stable layer between 700-600mb which is limiting
the intensity of the showers. Observed rain rates are mostly
0.10"/hr or less. However, once the colder air arrives later this
afternoon and evening, that helps destabilize the environment
more, shower shower intensity will likely increase. NBM is
maintaining a 10-20% chance for thunderstorms in South-Central AZ
this evening. CAPE overall will be limited, with HREF spread
mostly between 0-100 J/kg and a few pockets above 100 J/kg. The
best forcing will likely come with the strong cold front as it
sweeps through the region. The cold front is progged to move
through the CWA mainly between 5 PM - 12 AM MST today (7-10 MST
through Phoenix). As previously mentioned, gradient winds will be
strongest along and just ahead of the trough. With low-level winds
increasing up to 50-60 mph there will be a chance for
shower/storm driven wind gusts up to these magnitudes. A few hi-
res models even suggest some linear convection segments. Small
hail and graupel will possible with any convectively driven
shower this evening, which could briefly accumulate at lower
elevations.

The aircraft soundings out of Phoenix and the melting layer
algorithm from KIWA radar suggest snow levels are currently around
5-6 kft. Dendrite production is not great right now over South-
Central AZ due to the aforementioned dry layer existing in the
dendritic growth zone. So, any snowfall early this afternoon is
likely limited in rate and accumulation efficiency. This will
change as well this evening as the colder air arrives. The most
significant accumulations are expected to remain above 5000 feet,
though light accumulations are possible as low as 2500 feet,
north and east of Phoenix. For the Valley, snow showers will be
limited to the foothills, generally above 2500-3000 feet in
elevation. Rain amounts will vary but on average, one to two
tenths of an inch is likely. All things considered, hazardous
weather conditions are expected across much of the area today and
tonight, and motorists are urged to exercise caution.

In the wake of this system, clear skies are anticipated
Wednesday with much drier conditions as dew point temperatures
crash down to around 10F or lower by mid-day Wednesday. However,
latest model guidance continues to indicate a trailing vort max,
which will act to elongate the trough into Arizona. Consequently,
breezy conditions will continue down the Lower Colorado River
Valley and the cold will linger with well below normal
temperatures prevailing. High temperatures will struggle to even
reach the mid 50s around Phoenix, and 60 degrees across SW Arizona
and SE California Wednesday. The bigger concern though will be
temperatures Wednesday night and Thursday. Latest NBM indicates
the potential for a widespread late-season freeze event. Many
lower desert locations and valleys across Arizona may observe the
coldest readings so far this winter and Hard Freeze Warnings are
possible, particularly across Pinal County where lows may reach
the upper 20s.

Steady height rises will translate into a warming trend and a
return to near normal temperatures through Saturday. Thereafter,
forecast uncertainty increases, mainly in response to a meandering
closed low in the eastern Pacific. Low pressure systems like this
one are notoriously difficult for the models to resolve and
forecast, and this is reflected in the NBM PoPs, which show an
extended period of 20 percent 12-hour PoPs stretching from
Saturday night through next Tuesday. Model clusters also point to
high uncertainty with regard to precipitation potential, though
temperatures are generally expected to remain at or below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1830Z.

South-Central AZ including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:

Low CIGS and and windy conditions today across the region. BKN
3-4k ft cloud bases will prevail at all terminals through this
afternoon and into the evening. MVFR CIGS are possible (20-30%)
with higher probabilities (40%) at DVT and SDL. S-SE winds will go
SW over the next few hours and pick up significantly by 20-21Z.
Gusts of 35-40kt are possible (~50%) at all locations. A line of
heavy showers and possible thunderstorms along a cold front will
move through the region between 02-05Z. There may be some brief
periods where winds can gust ~50kt in association with this line.
After the front has passed through, winds will shift to the W and
decrease in strength, but gusts 20-25kt will persist through
tonight. CIGS will begin to lift between 07-08Z with skies then
clearing out between 10-11Z.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Windy conditions are the main aviation concern over the region.
Strong W-SW winds at both terminals with gusts 35-40kt this
afternoon and through the evening. These strong winds will create
blowing dust which can cause reduced visibilities for an extended
period of time. A few high clouds will give way to lower CIGS
between 6-7k ft this evening. 20-30% chance of showers at IPL
with higher probabilities (40%) at BLH. Winds will decrease
tonight, but gusts of 20-25kt will be possible through tonight at
both locations.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very windy conditions are expected today and tonight ahead of a
cold front that will sweep through central this evening. Wind
gusts will generally reach 35-45 mph, but there will spots in the
higher terrain potentially reaching 60-80 mph. This system will
bring another chance of precipitation for the central Arizona
lower deserts this evening and light snow accumulations for the
higher terrain east of Phoenix later tonight. Much cooler and
drier conditions are expected Wednesday. Winds will also subside
Wednesday, though general breeziness will persist. A warming trend
is then expected through the weekend. A low pressure system will
meander in the eastern Pacific early this weekend, however there
is some uncertainty with regard to if and when impacts and
precipitation will next affect the Desert Southwest.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for AZZ530>533-535-
     536-539-553-554-559.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM MST this evening for AZZ551-
     553>555-559.

     High Wind Warning until 2 AM MST Wednesday for AZZ552-558-561.

     Wind Advisory until 2 AM MST Wednesday for AZZ555>557-560-562-
     563.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM MST
     Wednesday for AZZ557-558-563.

     Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for AZZ534-537-538-
     540>551.

CA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ560-561-
     563>570.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ562.

&&

DISCUSSION...Hirsch
AVIATION...Worley
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch

Wind Advisories in California, 2023Every wind advisory in 2023

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.