Tornado Warning 13, NWS Omaha, NE

635 
WWUS53 KOAX 122052 RRA
SVSOAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
352 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

NEC011-119-141-122115-
/O.CON.KOAX.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-230512T2115Z/
Madison NE-Platte NE-Boone NE-
352 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MADISON...NORTHWESTERN PLATTE AND SOUTHEASTERN BOONE
COUNTIES...
    
At 352 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 4 miles west of Newman Grove, or 8 miles northeast of
Albion, moving north at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southwestern Madison, northwestern Platte and southeastern Boone
Counties, including the following locations... The Highway 14 And 56
Junction.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4183 9780 4153 9774 4152 9782 4153 9788
      4152 9789 4151 9797 4175 9805
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 171DEG 35KT 4175 9786 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Kern

671 
WWUS53 KOAX 122109
SVSOAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
409 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

NEC011-119-141-122118-
/O.EXP.KOAX.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-230512T2115Z/
Madison NE-Platte NE-Boone NE-
409 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MADISON...NORTHWESTERN PLATTE
AND SOUTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 415 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire however other 
tornado warnings remains in effect near the area.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for northeastern
Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4183 9780 4153 9774 4152 9782 4153 9788
      4152 9789 4151 9797 4175 9805
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 161DEG 24KT 4184 9790 

$$

Kern

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
223 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

...Updated Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

Key Messages:

 - Strong to severe storms likely this afternoon and evening.

 - Environment capable of supporting tornadic storms.

 - Precip chances in play most of the forecast period.

Water vapor imagery this afternoon showing a tight upper circulation
lifting from northwest KS into southwest NE. System was nearly
stacked with surface reflection situated in s-central NE with
attendant warm front extending into w-central IA and dry line
extending through s-central NE into central KS.

Short term models are advertising ingredients coming together for
potential significant severe weather event over the CWA this
afternoon and evening. The upper low mentioned is expected to be in
central NE by 23Z with surface low riding along the NE/KS border.
Southerly flow ahead of the system will aid with drawing low level
moisture northward into the region with dew points in the mid
60s/PWS around 1.5" inches. Current analysis suggests environment is
already quite unstable despite thick cloud cover with MLCAPEs from
1500-2500 J/kg. Appears that storm initiation should occur along dry
line on nose of steep 0-3km lapse rates. Expect storms to rapidly
intensify along increasing boundary layer moisture convergence
axis/instability axis. Adequate environmental deep layer shear
roughly 40-50kt will be in place to promote rotating cells. And with
steep mid layer lapse rates atop increasing low level moisture
source, large hail threat will accompany any discrete storms. In
addition to this, ESRH values greater than 150 (m2/s2) will enhance
threat for tornadic storms. Storm motion for individual cells will
be north/northeasterly while overall motion for storm activity will
generally be easterly. Latest CAMs for the most part suggest storm
activity shifting into the IA CWA sometime around 01Z with
continuing threat for tornadic storms. Activity should clear the CWA
then toward midnight. In addition to all this, excessively heavy
rainfall is a distinct possibility accompanying stronger storms.
However, flash flooding may be mitigated due to the speedy nature of
individual cell movement.

As the upper low lifts from NE into southeast SD, main threat for
precip Saturday and Saturday night will be across the northern and
eastern periphery of the CWA. Weak isentropic upglide will keep
precip chance alive Sunday and Sunday night.

Otherwise, precip chances are in play Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday as a series of disturbances drop out of the Dakotas into
the central Plains.

Highs:
Sat - upper 70s/low 80s
Sun - upper 60s/mid 70s
Mon - low 70s
Tue - mid/upper 70s
Wed - low 80s
Thu - low 80s
Fri - low/mid 70S

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Fri May 12 2023

Regional obs showing a mix of MVFR/IFR conditions currently
across eastern NE. Main issue to contend with is anticipated
threat for strong/severe TSRA developing this afternoon. TSRA
activity is expected to initial along a boundary/dry line and
quickly intensify as they migrate to the northeast. Given this,
have included TEMPO groups to reflect this. Once storms clear
improvement to VFR expected. However, models advertising return of
MVFR cigs to all terminals toward 12Z Saturday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...DEE
AVIATION...DEE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
243 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-130945-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
243 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

There is an Enhanced Risk for severe weather late this afternoon
and evening. Storm initiation is expected along a dryline from
about Albion to Columbus to Lincoln, and then continue to develop
east southeast, while moving to the northeast. Severe storms
should move out of the local area toward midnight. All modes of
severe weather are possible, including large hail of 1 to 2
inches, damaging winds, flash flooding, and tornado or two.

Thunderstorm chances continue on Saturday over areas north of the
I-80 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather for northeast Nebraska
and western Iowa Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
316 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 PM     HAIL             2 ESE PLEASANT DALE     40.78N 96.89W
05/12/2023  M1.00 INCH       LANCASTER          NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
317 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     HAIL             DENTON                  40.75N 96.84W
05/12/2023  U0.75 INCH       LANCASTER          NE   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: DIME (0.75 IN.).

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
324 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     HAIL             2 NNE PLEASANT DALE     40.82N 96.91W
05/12/2023  M1.25 INCH       SEWARD             NE   STORM CHASER

&&