Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Twin Cities, MN

825 
WWUS53 KMPX 192112
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
412 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

MNC145-153-192121-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-230719T2130Z/
Todd MN-Stearns MN-
412 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN TODD AND
NORTHEASTERN STEARNS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4596 9463 4594 9435 4578 9444 4589 9465
      4590 9464 4597 9464
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 289DEG 38KT 4585 9451 

$$

MNC097-192130-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-230719T2130Z/
Morrison MN-
412 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MORRISON COUNTY...

At 411 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Upsala, or 11
miles southwest of Little Falls, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Bowlus.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4596 9463 4594 9435 4578 9444 4589 9465
      4590 9464 4597 9464
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 289DEG 38KT 4585 9451 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

CTG

248 
WWUS53 KMPX 192122
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
422 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

MNC097-192131-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-230719T2130Z/
Morrison MN-
422 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MORRISON COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 4596 9463 4594 9435 4578 9444 4589 9465
      4590 9464 4597 9464
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 289DEG 38KT 4582 9437 

$$

CTG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
347 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Through this evening scattered thunderstorms are likely, with
  severe thunderstorms possible. Main threat is large hail.

- A slow warming trend will be seen Friday into next week. The threat
  for excessive heat next week remains, although intensity and
  timing of the most intense heat have low confidence.

As of 2pm, we've seen two areas of convection develop, one to our
north and one to our southwest. The convection from Brainerd north
is occurring out ahead of a strong shortwave over eastern NoDak that
shows up well on satellite. The activity over southeast SoDak has
developed on the northern gradient of a pocket of very unstable air,
with SPC mesoanalysis showing 4000 j/kg of MUCAPE near Mitchell.
This CAPE gradient angles southeast into northwest Iowa, so the bulk
of this activity will stay largely southwest of the MPX area. So
what do we have? Well, both low level and mid level water vapor
imagery shows a wedge of dry air between the northern shortwave and
southern instability, which is conveniently placed right over the
MPX area. In fact, with the help of downsloping winds, we've seen
Canby and Madison actually mix up into this drier air, where Madison
saw its temperature jump to 93 with the dewpoint drop to 46. For us,
the main question is how far south into southern MN does convection
build along the cold front that is crossing into MN from SoDak. Once
storms form, 1000-2000 j/kg of mlCAPE, with effective bulk shear of
55 kts will support some spin with storms. Because of the expected
supercell storm mode, large hail is the main threat. But the veered
low level winds and dewpoint depressions around 20 degrees F make
for a very low tornado threat.

Behind this cold front, we'll see highs tomorrow get chopped back to
the 70s/low 80s, but after that, a gradual warming trend ensues that
goes into next week. That warming trend will be the result of the
heatwave current baking the southern Plains into the desert southwest
starting to spread across the Plains. We continue to live in a land
of uncertainty with the heat next week and the big sticking point is
the strength of the persistent troughing near Hudson Bay. This
trough is acting as a buffer to the northeast expansion of the heat.
We'll see temperatures near normal through the weekend, when low
level winds will be out of the W to NW. But on Monday, the NBM flips
those winds over to the south and this is when the heat starts to
build in. The NBM, which goes out 10 days (so through next
Saturday), shows highs at MSP getting above 90 from Monday through
next Saturday. How warm we get though will come down to two things,
how strong the influence from that Hudson trough can remain and the
potential for convection with weak shortwaves/fronts moving through
the northwest flow. There continues to be some impressive high end
potential by Wednesday/Thursday next week, with most EPS members
showing highs getting into the upper 90s/lower 100s, with dewpoints
likely climbing into at least the mid/upper 60s. So the potential
remains for us to see a hazardous stretch of heat, assuming we don't
get saved by any weak passing cold fronts.

As for precipitation chances after today, there are almost daily
pops in the evening, tied to a diurnal trend in heating/instability.
As we get into next week, the jet stream will be over us or just to
our north, so there are plenty of weak shortwaves topping the
ridge in the ensembles, which leads to the dull roar in pops from
our forecast. At this point, the only wave that has some semblance
of agreement in the modeling systems is one for Saturday.
Shear/forcing is weak for this wave, so it will be your hit and miss
(though let's be honest, it will be mostly miss) garden variety
storms. The precipitation outlook for the last week of July through
the first week of August is not a good thing to see given the
growing drought conditions across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

Biggest change with the TAFs is the delay in convective initiation.
This means storms will start farther east than originally forecast,
with MSP/RNH/EAU and possibly MKT the only airports in line for
possibly seeing TS. Given the forecast we're seeing from HREF
members with the scattered nature of storms, for locations with
precip mentioned, went with no more than a VCTS. Going into Thursday
morning, much of the guidance shows low level moisture increasing as
weak cold air advection overspreads the area, resulting in the
threat of MVFR cigs. It's a bit uncertain how widespread the low
clouds will be in the morning, but enough models are showing it
happening to include an MVFR cloud mention at STC/MSP/RNH/EAU.

KMSP...The TS potential at MSP early this evening is trending down,
but storms are still expected to develop near the Twin Cities metro.
Given current expectation, VCTS actually works best to cover the TS
chance MSP has at the moment. For the MVFR cigs, there are an awful
lot of models dropping cigs down into the 015-025 range 12z-16z Thu,
so included that possibility in the TAF. Current thinking is cigs
will actually remain pretty clear tonight, but as the sun comes up
and mixing begins, we'll quickly develop a stratocu field that will
go BKN at an MVFR level pretty quick before scattering out by the
afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind WNW 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...MPG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
349 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
202100-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
349 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A few severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening, especially across southern and eastern Minnesota into
Wisconsin. The main hazard is large hail, with a secondary threat
of damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A slow warming trend will start Thursday through the weekend,
with excessive heat possible next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.