Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1015 PM EDT Tue May 2 2023

...New UPDATE, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 PM EDT Tue May 2 2023

Made a few adjustments to winds for the late evening and
temperatures for the overnight based on observations, but nothing
too significant. Both were a little low in the forecast, so bumped
winds through 10 PM up a couple miles per hour, and blended hi-res
guidance into the overnight lows. Otherwise, forecast remains on
track for a quiet and dry night with some transient high clouds
and lows in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1013 PM EDT Tue May 2 2023

Tonight...Westerly flow and dry conditions continue as a large low
pressure system over the E US slow slides eastward. Boating
conditions become poor to briefly hazardous across the offshore
waters and the Volusia nearshore waters as winds increase 15 to 20
kts early tonight, then further increase to 20 to 25 kts from late
tonight through early Wednesday morning. Due to the briefness of
the surge, seas expected to reach 4-5 ft offshore and 2-3 ft
nearshore. Small craft should exercise caution in the Volusia
waters away from the coast, and well offshore of the Brevard and
Treasure Coast waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1013 PM EDT Tue May 2 2023

Wednesday...High fire danger expected from Osceola-Brevard
counties northward due to low minimum RHs and breezy conditions. A
Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Wed afternoon from noon to
8 PM. Minimum RHs will drop to 25-35 pct across the counties in
the Fire Weather Watch as westerly winds increase to just below 15
mph in the afternoon

Thursday-Friday...Minimum RH values are forecast to reach 25 to 30
percent over interior sections on Thursday, and possibly over the
far western interior Friday. Fire weather concerns will continue
to be an issue as no significant rain chances are in the forecast
the next few days. These dry conditions with elevated dispersion
could cause re-ignition of any smoldering fires started by recent
lightning strikes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1013 PM EDT Tue May 2 2023

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Breezy/gusty
westerly winds ease to around 8 kts by 02Z, then increase to 10-15
kts (closer to 10 kts along the Treasure and Southern Space
Coasts) and gusty Wed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1013 PM EDT Tue May 2 2023

Wednesday...An upper level low over the NE US will continue to
shift slightly eastward through the day, pushing offshore into the
Atlantic late in the day. Locally, westerly winds will veer
northwest and remain 10-15 mph. Dry conditions expected, with
forecast soundings showing a fairly dry airmass in the low levels
(PW values ranging from 0.50-1.00"),and increasing moisture in the
mid to upper levels(altocu). Afternoon temperatures will be in
the low to mid 80s from Brevard to Osceola counties northward due
to an increase in mid to high clouds, and mid to upper 80s
southward where more daytime heating is expected to occur.

modified prev disc...

Thu-Mon...Warming and dry conds ascd with a ridge dominant regime
will give way late week to mildly disturbed wx as an approaching
mid level wave combines with increasing low-mid level moisture to
produce a mentionable chc of a few storms by Sat aftn. Have added
a small 20 PoP for afternoon convection over land on Sat and
slightly increased up to 20 to 30 pct Sunday. High temperatures
will be in the mid 80s on Thursday, warming into the U80s/ near 90
Friday and Saturday across the interior, with mid 80s along the
coast, and low 80s east of I-95 and mid 80s west of I-95 on
Sunday. Ridging wl advance toward the state early into the week,
and this wl be reflected in a lower PoP next Monday as chcs lower
to around 15 to 20 pct coverage for the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  83  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  64  85  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  64  86  62  83 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  64  88  61  84 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  64  84  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  63  85  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  66  86  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  64  86  62  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144-247-347-447-547-647-
     747.

AM...None.
&&

Haley/Cristaldi

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
851 PM EDT Tue May 2 2023

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-031000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
851 PM EDT Tue May 2 2023

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A Moderate risk of dangerous rip currents continues at all central
Florida Atlantic beaches tonight.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Boating conditions will be poor to briefly hazardous across the
offshore waters and the Volusia nearshore waters tonight.
Westerly winds 15 to 20 kts increase to 20 to 25 kts from late
tonight through early Wednesday morning, but seas only expected to
build up to 5 feet. Small craft should exercise caution in the
Volusia waters away from the coast, and well offshore in the
Brevard and Treasure Coast waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A moderate risk of dangerous rip currents is expected to continue
at all east central Florida beaches through the week.
Additionally, continued dry conditions and low relative humidity
will contribute to increased fire weather concerns through much
of this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

Fehling/Watson/Haley