High Wind Warning 1, NWS Melbourne, FL

443 
WWUS72 KMLB 161327
NPWMLB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
827 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

FLZ154-159-164-170900-
/O.EXT.KMLB.WI.Y.0011.231116T1800Z-231117T0900Z/
/O.CON.KMLB.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-231116T1800Z/
Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-Coastal Martin-
Including the cities of Sebastian, Vero Beach, Fort Pierce, 
Port Saint Lucie, Hobe Sound, Jensen Beach, and Stuart
827 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the High Wind Warning, northeast winds 25 to 40 mph
  with gusts up to 60 mph near the coast and across barrier
  islands. For the Wind Advisory, northeast winds 20 to 30 mph 
  with gusts up to 45 mph expected.

* WHERE...Coastal Indian River, Coastal Saint Lucie and Coastal 
  Martin Counties.

* WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, until 1 PM EST this 
  afternoon. For the Wind Advisory, from 1 PM this afternoon to 
  4 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm and avoid windows. Use caution if 
you must drive.

&&

$$

FLZ141-347-447-647-747-170900-
/O.EXT.KMLB.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-231117T0900Z/
Coastal Volusia-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Mainland Southern Brevard-
Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
Including the cities of Daytona Beach, New Smyrna Beach, 
Ormond Beach, Titusville, Port Saint John, Mims, 
Merritt Island Wildlife Refuge, Playalinda Beach, Cocoa, 
Rockledge, Melbourne, Cocoa Beach, Satellite Beach, 
and Melbourne Beach
827 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* WHERE...Coastal Volusia, Mainland Northern Brevard, Northern 
  Brevard Barrier Islands, Mainland Southern Brevard and 
  Southern Brevard Barrier Islands Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

242 
WWUS72 KMLB 161753
NPWMLB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1253 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

FLZ154-159-164-170900-
/O.EXP.KMLB.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-231116T1800Z/
/O.CON.KMLB.WI.Y.0011.231116T1800Z-231117T0900Z/
Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-Coastal Martin-
Including the cities of Sebastian, Vero Beach, Fort Pierce, 
Port Saint Lucie, Hobe Sound, Jensen Beach, and Stuart
1253 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Coastal Indian River, Coastal Saint Lucie and Coastal 
  Martin Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

FLZ141-347-447-647-747-170900-
/O.CON.KMLB.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-231117T0900Z/
Coastal Volusia-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Mainland Southern Brevard-
Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
Including the cities of Daytona Beach, New Smyrna Beach, 
Ormond Beach, Titusville, Port Saint John, Mims, 
Merritt Island Wildlife Refuge, Playalinda Beach, Cocoa, 
Rockledge, Melbourne, Cocoa Beach, Satellite Beach, 
and Melbourne Beach
1253 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* WHERE...Coastal Volusia, Mainland Northern Brevard, Northern 
  Brevard Barrier Islands, Mainland Southern Brevard and 
  Southern Brevard Barrier Islands Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
845 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023

...Dangerous Seas and Surf, Gale Conditions...
...Minor to Moderate Beach Erosion and Coastal Flooding Around High
Tide Cycles...
...Locally Heavy Rainfall Overnight Into Thursday, Especially Along
the Coast...

.DISCUSSION...
Currently-Overnight...A full gale over the central Gulf continues to
show an impressive sat image this evening with active weather
extending downstream across the Fl peninsula. Another night of
breezy to windy conds along with intermittent moderate to heavy
coastal showers, and less to a degree pcpn inland wl continue
overnight. Theres a suite of beach and marine related hazards, along
with a Flood Watch continuing along the coast into Thu. The PoP cvrg
was bumped up a bit across the south, where consistent rains have
been continuing all evening.

from prev disc...

More consistent rainfall is expected from Indian River and
Okeechobee counties southward into tonight and early Thursday
morning. Thereafter, some locations could sneak in a bit of dry
time, in between isolated shower activity. This is forecast to
continue through at least early Thursday afternoon, before
increasing support for showers and isolated storms moves overhead.
While model consistency for Thu afternoon has not been all too
impressive yet, some hi-res guidance and ensemble members are
hinting at some eye-opening rainfall totals Thursday afternoon and
evening along the coast. As a result, WPC has included all of the
east central Florida coast in slight risk for excessive rainfall.
Trends will need to be monitored for this heavy rainfall and
flooding potential into the day on Thursday.

Otherwise, windy conditions will continue into Thursday and a Wind
Advisory remains in effect until (at least) 1 PM tomorrow. Beach
and surf conditions are also expected to remain dangerous tonight
through Thursday, with minor to moderate beach erosion and minor
coastal flooding still possible. A Coastal Flood Advisory, High
Surf Advisory, and Rip Current Statement are in place. Entering
the surf is highly discouraged!

Lows overnight wl remain in the M-U60s inland to L70s along the
coast.

Friday-Sunday...The mid-level low will sweep northeastward along the
southeastern coast of the US, with the low eventually weakening and
becoming a trough. At the surface, the non-tropical low pressure
will move north-northeast away from east central Florida on Friday,
resulting in decreasing PoPs through the day and the pressure
gradient across east central Florida weakening. As the low moves
away from the state, winds will weaken and gradually back from the
east to out of the north on Friday, and eventually out of the
northwest on Saturday into Sunday. A second, weaker trough in the
mid-levels will sweep across the peninsula on Sunday, with the
associated surface boundary remaining rather weak and mostly dry.
PoPs are forecast to remain below 10% Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal for this time
of year, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and
overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Monday-Wednesday...Behind the weak, dry frontal boundary, model
guidance indicates a mid-level ridge developing across the peninsula
and stretching eastward out over the Atlantic. At the surface, and
area of high pressure will develop, keeping conditions mostly dry
Monday into Tuesday. Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, a
trough is forecast to dig into the southeastern US, leading to
another cold front passage forecast across the peninsula. The models
are not in great agreement with timing yet, with the GFS moving it
through quicker than the Euro. In general, however, Tuesday night
into Wednesday looks to be the next best bet for precipitation
across the peninsula, so have kept the 20% PoPs in from the NBM.
Would not be surprised if PoPs trend upward over the next several
days as confidence increases in timing of the front. Afternoon highs
will remain in the upper 70s to low 80s through Tuesday afternoon,
with the cold front passage Tuesday night into Wednesday causing
afternoon highs to only reach the the low to mid 70s near and north
of the I-4 corridor and in the mid 70s to around 80 south of the I-4
corridor. Overnight lows in the 60s Monday and Tuesday nights,
dropping into the 50s on Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 845 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023

Tonight-Thursday...Gale Warning continues over all the waters into
Thu. Dangerous boating conditions as a low pressure system develops
off the southeast Florida coast and moves northeastward. Frequent
gusts to gale force are expected across all of the local waters but
especially south of Cape Canaveral (nearshore) and over the Gulf
Stream (nearshore/offshore). Onshore winds 20-25 kt, up to 30 kt
well offshore, will gust 30-35 kt and up to 40 kt well offshore.
Seas build as a result, from 7-9 ft this afternoon to 7-10 ft by
sunrise Thursday. Expect seas to continue increasing on Thursday, up
to 10-13 ft offshore and 7-10 ft nearshore. A Gale Warning is in
effect for all of the local waters through at least Thursday night.

In addition, rounds of scattered showers will continue over the
waters through Thursday. Isolated lightning storms are possible
south of Sebastian Inlet tonight, expanding to all marine legs on
Thursday.

Friday-Monday...The non-tropical low situated right off the Florida
coast will move north-northeast away from the peninsula on Friday,
leading to a weakening pressure gradient across the local Atlantic
waters. As a result, winds will gradually weaken to between 10 to 20
knots and will back to out of the north-northwest Friday through
Saturday before veering to out of the north on Sunday and then out
of the east on Monday. With winds weakening, seas will react and
slowly decrease through the period. However, boating conditions will
likely remain poor to hazardous through at least Sunday night across
the local Atlantic waters, with seas 7 to 11 feet on Friday
gradually subsiding to around 4 to 6 feet Sunday, and further
subsiding to 3 to 5 feet on Monday. Isolated to scattered showers
and a stray thunderstorm or two will be possible across the local
Atlantic waters on Friday. Mostly dry conditions will then persist
through Monday across the local Atlantic waters as an area of high
pressure develops across the Florida peninsula and the local
Atlantic waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 842 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023

MVFR to ocnl lower conds into Thu. ESE winds around 10-15 kt inland,
gusting 20-25 kt at times, will continue. Higher winds along the
coast of 15-20 kt with gusts around 30 kt will persist into Thu.
as a local pressure gradient strengthens off the SE FL coast.
Greater coverage of SHRA is expected through 10z, with perhaps more
isolated coverage by late Thu aftn.

Brief reductions to IFR are possible, especially along the Treasure
to Space Coasts. Future AMDs/TEMPOs are likely as confidence in the
near-term forecast improves over the next couple TAF cycles.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 355 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023

The St. Johns River at Astor is forecast to gradually rise while
remaining in Minor Flood Stage through this weekend. Locally heavy
rainfall over the basin today into Thursday, breezy east winds
becoming northerly late this week, and high astronomical tides will
all contribute to the slight rise in the river level.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  75  68  78 /  60  80  60  30
MCO  69  75  68  80 /  60  70  50  20
MLB  70  78  69  81 /  70  70  60  30
VRB  72  80  70  83 /  80  70  50  30
LEE  67  75  66  80 /  60  60  40  20
SFB  68  76  68  80 /  60  80  50  20
ORL  69  77  68  81 /  60  70  50  20
FPR  71  79  70  83 /  80  70  50  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

     Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-
     447-647-747.

     Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ550-552-570-572.

     Gale Warning until 10 PM EST Thursday for AMZ555-575.

&&

JP/JH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
727 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-161000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
727 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible overnight and into early
Thursday over the Atlantic Waters of the Treasure Coast as well as
the Treasure Coast mainly south of Vero Beach. Any storms will be
capable of occasional cloud to ground lightning, briefly gusty
winds, and torrential downpours.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Occasionally heavy rains will continue to move northward from
south Florida tonight while some additional showers push onshore
the coast from the Atlantic waters. Locally heavy rain will be
possible along the coast, accumulating up to 3 inches, with
locally higher amounts possible from training of cells or repeated
rounds of heavy showers. Flooding of urban and poor drainage
areas will be possible. Do not drive your vehicle into flood
waters of unknown depth. Be especially cautious at night when it
is harder to recognize flooding.

.HIGH WIND IMPACT...
East winds 20 to 30 mph with occasional higher gusts in showers
is forecast along the coast and beaches. Such winds can blow
around lightweight or unsecured objects.

.COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
Fresh onshore flow combined with high astronomical tides will
produce dangerous conditions at the beaches, including large
breaking waves of 6 to 9 feet, rough surf, and wave runup to the
dune line or seawall near times of high tide, leading to minor to
moderate beach erosion and coastal flooding. The next high tide will
occur around 9 pm Wednesday.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A High Risk of numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents
continues at all central Florida Atlantic beaches. Entering this
rough, dangerous surf is highly discouraged.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Isolated thunderstorms capable of gusty winds to 35 knots will be
possible across the Atlantic waters, mainly south of Sebastian
Inlet.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Hazardous boating conditions as a Gale Warning continues over all
the waters into Thursday.

.RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
The St. Johns River at Astor is forecast to gradually rise while
remaining in Minor Flood Stage through this weekend. Locally heavy
rainfall over the basin today into Thursday, breezy east winds
becoming northerly late this week, and high astronomical tides will
all contribute to the slight rise in the river level.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
Fresh easterly winds will produce numerous beach and marine
hazards into late week, some of which could persist into the
weekend even after winds die down. Hazards including large
breaking waves, rough surf, beach erosion, coastal flooding, and
large choppy seas. The risk for numerous, strong, life-
threatening rip currents will remain Moderate to High.

A surface low approaching Florida in the Gulf of Mexico and
a secondary low developing to the southeast will continue high
rain chances through Thursday. Repeated rounds of showers are
forecast to produce widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches,
and locally higher amounts up to 6 inches are possible. Isolated to
scattered lightning storms remain possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

Pendergrast

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1052 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1029 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 4 NNW Saint Lucie Nucle 27.35N 80.24W
11/15/2023  M46 MPH          St. Lucie          FL   Mesonet

            WeatherFlow station XSTL St. Lucie Plant
            gusted to 46 mph from the east.

&&

JH