Beach Hazards Statement 18, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1027 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1026 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2023

Isolated showers will move toward the northwest across Brevard
down to Lake O and may reach coastal Volusia before dissipating
after midnight. Breezy E-SE flow will develop along the coast and
keep min temps milder than previous nights with lows holding in
the upper 60s/lower 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1026 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2023

Poor to hazardous boating conditions as E to SE winds increase
15-20 knots and seas 5-6 feet with some 7 footers offshore Volusia
and Brevard where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect overnight.
Caution headline elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1026 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2023

Patchy MVFR and even some IFR CIGs across interior terminals with
VFR CIGs over coastal terminals. Isolated SHRA will diminish
overnight. E to SE winds 10 knots along the coast with some higher
gusts. On Tue, SE winds 12-14 knots with gusts to 20 knots at
coastal terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2023

Tuesday... The mid/upper level ridge over the eastern CONUS will
continue to slide east over the western Atlantic Tuesday. Flow
will then veer southeasterly over east central Florida. Dry
conditions are forecast with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Breezy
southeasterly winds are expected along the coast with gusts up to
20-25mph at times. With southeasterly flow in place, afternoon
highs were nudged upwards towards the NBM 50th percentile and
ECMW/GFS MOS. Highs forecast to reach the low to mid 80s.

Tuesday Night-Wednesday Night...The 500mb ridge axis slides south
and east Tuesday night as surface winds begin to veer to the SSW.
This opens the door for increased moisture return, which will first
come in the form of more cloud cover Wednesday morning. A cold front
stretching across north Florida will advance southward through the
day Wednesday with a solid ribbon of 1.8"+ PW along and just ahead
of the boundary. Medium-range models have trended up slightly in the
12z run with PoP Wednesday, though still remain under the
statistical guidance by at least 20 to 30 percent. As mentioned in
this morning's discussion, it is entirely possible that current PoPs
get nudged up again in the next few forecasts. That theme is
reflected in this package with generally 20 PoP now for all of east
central Florida as the front pushes south through the area.
Lingering shower activity is expected to push offshore Wednesday
night.

Daytime highs Wednesday will be a touch cooler north, due to a
combination of rain, clouds, and the frontal passage. Elsewhere,
expect the low to mid 80s with temperatures falling into the 60s by
Wednesday evening.

Thursday-Sunday...Differences in model solutions become more
apparent from this time onward, as a cutoff low over south Texas and
the Gulf Coast ejects northeastward. GFS solutions are a bit more
progressive and one could say energetic, taking the low all the way
to north AL/GA by Friday morning. ECMWF guidance is a bit less
amplified, with a ridge holding in place a bit longer from the
Yucatan to the Bahamas. This keeps the system a bit weaker and
slower by 6-12 hours. All of this has implications on the forecast
late week into the weekend. For now, tried to find a consensus in
temperatures from the previous forecast, though a trend down by a
couple degrees is very possible for highs Thursday and Friday. Light
northerly winds Thursday turn out of the south on Friday, veering
again out of the north on Saturday. Kept PoPs around 20-30 percent,
with a focus mainly on the Friday afternoon to midday Saturday
timeframe. More agreement in the models is needed before confidence
can increase in the late week forecast.

.MARINE...
Currently-Tuesday...Boating conditions remain poor and choppy. A
weak trough over the waters will keep isolate to scattered showers
over the waters through late this evening before drying out into
Tuesday. Expect easterly winds at about 10-15kts to veer
southeasterly into Tuesday at 15-20kts. Seas build to 3-5ft with
up to 6ft in the offshore waters. Small Craft Should Exercise
Caution.

Tuesday Night-Friday...SE winds Tue. night veer SW on Wed., then to
the north Thu., and finally return out of the south on Fri. Waves
generally 3-4 ft nearshore, up to 5 ft offshore through Thursday,
decreasing further on Friday. A frontal passage is expected
Wednesday, which may be accompanied by rain showers. Confidence in
the late week/weekend forecast remains somewhat low until model
guidance arrives at a better consensus.

HYDROLOGY...
The Saint Johns River at Astor will remain in Minor Flood Stage
through at least Friday. The river is forecast to slowly rise
into Action Stage at Deland, Sanford, and Geneva/Above Lake Harney
later this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  79  66  78 /  10   0  10  20
MCO  67  81  66  80 /  10   0  10  20
MLB  69  82  66  83 /  20  10  10  20
VRB  69  82  66  84 /  20   0  10  20
LEE  65  82  66  78 /  10   0  10  20
SFB  66  82  66  80 /  10  10  10  20
ORL  67  83  67  80 /  10   0  10  20
FPR  69  82  67  83 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570-572.

&&

SK/ZL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
900 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2023

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-210900-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
900 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2023

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A Moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at all
central Florida Atlantic beaches.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
East to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots and choppy seas 5 to 7
feet will produce poor to hazardous boating conditions overnight
over the Atlantic coastal waters.

.RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to remain in Minor flood
stage for the foreseeable future.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A moderate risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip
currents will continue through at least midweek.

An isolated lightning storm threat will return to the forecast on
Friday afternoon across east central Florida, becoming confined to
the Atlantic waters by Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.