Beach Hazards Statement 15, NWS Melbourne, FL

270 
WHUS42 KMLB 131514
CFWMLB

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1014 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2023

FLZ141-347-447-141000-
/O.CAN.KMLB.BH.S.0015.000000T0000Z-231114T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KMLB.RP.S.0029.231113T1514Z-231114T0900Z/
/O.CON.KMLB.CF.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-231115T1600Z/
Coastal Volusia-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-
1014 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2023

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, water runup to the dune
  line, minor coastal flooding and beach erosion expected around
  the times of high tide, especially in vulnerable locations of
  Volusia County. For the High Rip Current Risk, rough choppy surf
  and dangerous rip currents. 

* WHERE...Coastal Volusia, Mainland Northern Brevard and 
  Northern Brevard Barrier Islands Counties.

* WHEN...For the High Rip Current Risk, through late tonight. 
  For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 11 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Some flooding of low-lying lots, parks and roadways
  may occur near the shoreline. Only isolated road closures are
  expected. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away
  from shore into deeper water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Morning high tides will occur between 800
  and 830 AM on Tuesday, and around 900 AM Wednesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Onshore winds and above normal tides will combine to generate
flooding of low areas along the shore. Do not drive around
barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary
actions to protect flood-prone property.

Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away
from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the
sandbar and in the vicinity of structures such as jetties and
piers. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags and
signs.

If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don't swim against 
the current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline.
If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$

FLZ154-159-164-647-747-141000-
/O.NEW.KMLB.RP.S.0029.231113T1514Z-231114T0900Z/
/O.CON.KMLB.CF.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-231115T1600Z/
Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-Coastal Martin-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
1014 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2023

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, water runup to the dune
  line, minor coastal flooding and beach erosion expected around
  the times of high tide, especially in vulnerable locations of
  Martin County. For the High Rip Current Risk, rough choppy surf
  and dangerous rip currents. 

* WHERE...Coastal Indian River, Coastal Saint Lucie, Coastal 
  Martin, Mainland Southern Brevard and Southern Brevard Barrier 
  Islands Counties.

* WHEN...For the High Rip Current Risk, through late tonight. 
  For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 11 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Some flooding of low-lying lots, parks and roadways
  may occur near the shoreline. Only isolated road closures are
  expected. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away
  from shore into deeper water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Morning high tides will occur between 800
  and 830 AM on Tuesday, and around 900 AM Wednesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Onshore winds and above normal tides will combine to generate
flooding of low areas along the shore. Do not drive around
barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary
actions to protect flood-prone property.

Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away
from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the
sandbar and in the vicinity of structures such as jetties and
piers. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags and
signs.

If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don't swim against 
the current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline.
If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
459 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2023

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY...

.DISCUSSION...

...Breezy With Dangerous Seas and Surf Much of This Week...
...Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Wednesday Night-Thursday, Mainly
Along the Coast...

Currently...The weak cool front has dropped just south of Lake
Okeechobee, with overcast skies and and in some cases clouds so low
they're producing some visibility reductions near the surface across
east central Florida. Scattered showers, a couple of which have been
heavy, continue to develop over the Atlantic waters and stream
onshore. These showers have generally dissipated by the time they
reach the inland counties, but that's only expected to last through
the early morning.

Today-Tonight...The weak front will become stationary across SOFL
later today, while overhead, the mid-level ridge that brought us
weeks of generally warm and dry conditions finally collapses ahead
of an approaching shortwave trough. Surface high pressure building
over the eastern U.S. will tighten the pressure gradient across FL,
causing northeasterly winds to increase to 15-20 mph along the
Volusia coast and generally 10-15 mph across the rest of ECFL today.
Winds ease a little from the late evening through the early
overnight , then veer to easterly and pick back up in the early
morning, becoming breezy to windy along the coast, and a moderate
breeze inland. Scattered showers will continue to develop across the
Atlantic waters, pushing progressively further inland, and reaching
the interior by morning. PoPs 20-40 pct areawide through the day and
overnight. Model soundings show enough of a subsidence cap remaining
in place to inhibit deeper convection and thunderstorms, especially
in the increasing low level flow, but a few heavy showers will be
possible. Daytime temperatures around normal, maybe a degree or two
above, ranging from the upper 70s north of I-4 to the low 80s from
Osceola and southern Brevard counties south. Overnight lows above
normal with the onshore flow and cloud cover in the upper 60s to low
70s. Mostly cloud to overcast skies.

Increasing onshore flow combined with high astronomical tides will
produce poor conditions at the beaches, including a Moderate Risk of
dangerous rip currents, rough surf, and wave runup to the dune line
and minor beach erosion near times of high tide through mid week.
Enter the rough surf is not advised.

Tuesday-Friday...A mid level short wave trough will drop SE to the
central central Gulf Coast Wed morning, then turn ESE into the
eastern GOMEX Thu. The trough slows as it approaches FL in response
to additional vorticity dropping into its backside. This causes
slight amplification as it crosses the state Thu night-Fri morning.
At the surface, low pressure over the central GOMEX drifts slowly
across eastern GOMEX toward FL through Wed night. Around that
time, a secondary low is progged to take shape over or near the
SEFL coast, along the stalled front, then crawl very slowly toward
the NE through Fri. The low then accelerates NE off the SEUS
seaboard through Fri night.

A tight local pressure gradient between the low and strong high
pressure over the eastern CONUS/western Atlantic will produce breezy
conditions while pushing Atlantic showers onshore with increasing
frequency. Increasing moisture, upglide over the stalled front, and
jet-forced ascent, will combine to produce widespread clouds/showers
Wed-Thu with the potential for locally heavy rainfall, primarily
over the coastal counties, starting late Wed night and continuing
through Thu evening. Deterministic forecast of areal-averaged QPF
totals for the event remain about 1-2" across the interior, 2-3"+
for the coastal counties. Not surprisingly, the highest totals
are expected across the Treasure Coast, closer to the secondary
low, where training of heavier showers is possible, and could
start as early as Wed night. Local totals 2-3x the areal average
are likely in some locations.

Development of the secondary low should decrease the potential
for the front and its warm sector/surface based instability to
lift back north into the southern CWA Wed night-Thu, limiting the
overall (and strong) TS threat. Embedded thunder is still expected
given the presence of elevated instability/strong H25 divergence
overhead.

The chance for showers will linger into Fri, however the heavy
rain threat will be long gone by then. Max temps Tue-Thu in the
U70s to around 80F/L80s south, warming to L80s areawide Fri. Mins
in the U60s-L70s Tue-Wed nights, dropping back a bit to M-U60s
Thu night and L-M60s Fri night (warmest along the Treasure coast).

Weekend...Fast moving northern stream short wave trough/attendant
cool front sweeps SE through the peninsula Sat. Drier/slightly
cooler post-frontal air mass takes hold this weekend, made more
noticeable Sat by a 15 mph north breeze veering NE on Sun. Lower
dew pts will allow mins to U50s (north) to L60s away from the
coast both nights.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 500 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2023

Today-Tonight...Hazardous boating conditions conditions continue
to develop across the local Atlantic. Higher seas are propagating
into the waters from the north as the pressure gradient tightens
between the front stalling just south of the Treasure Coast and
high pressure to the north. Winds freshen and veer in the evening
and overnight, from NE 15-20 kts in the Volusia waters, 10-15 kts
to the south this morning, veer NE-ENE 15-20 kts across all zones
this evening, then ENE 20-25 kts late tonight. Seas build to 5-8ft
this afternoon, and 7-9ft over most of the water by tonight.

Tuesday-Friday...Local pressure gradient tightens further Tue-Thu
as the GOMEX low approaches FL, and the secondary forms offshore
the SEFL coast. Wind/seas respond accordingly, peaking at 22-27kt
and 7-11ft as they veer slightly (from ENE to east). As the low
drifts NE over and then a little east of the local waters, winds
should drop back a bit to 15-20kt Thu night, then shift northerly
Fri. Seas will remain hazardous, 5-7ft near shore/7-9ft offshore
into Fri.

 &&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 500 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2023

A weak frontal boundary stalled across Florida is producing IFR-LIFR
CIGs and occasional VIS reductions from TIX north, periodic MVFR at
MLB-SUA this morning, and SHRA over the Atlantic waters reaching the
coastal terminal before dissipating early this morning. SHRA will
start pushing further inland, reaching MCO-SFB-ISM by around 12Z.
CIGs at northern terminals forecast to lift to MVFR in the
afternoon, and might even have a few breaks to VFR. IFR-LIFR
conditions could return for the Monday overnight at the northern
terminals, but keeping the TAFs MVFR for now due to low confidence.
MLB-SUA expected to be predominately VFR in the afternoon, but
showers will cause periodic MVFR CIG and MVFR-IFR VIS reductions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 500 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2023

The Saint Johns River near Astor will rise back into Minor Flood
Stage today through at least mid week, primarily due to increasing
northeast winds coupled with increasing high astronomical tides.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible over the basin Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  69  76  69 /  40  40  20  30
MCO  80  70  77  69 /  30  30  20  30
MLB  81  72  80  70 /  40  40  20  30
VRB  82  73  81  72 /  30  40  30  30
LEE  78  67  77  66 /  20  20  20  30
SFB  79  69  78  67 /  30  30  20  30
ORL  80  70  78  68 /  30  30  20  30
FPR  82  73  80  72 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ550-570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Friday
     for AMZ552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Friday
     for AMZ575.

&&

SHORT TERM...Haley
LONG TERM....Cristaldi
AVIATION...Haley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
502 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2023

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-140200-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
502 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2023

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
Increasing onshore flow combined with high astronomical tides will
produce poor conditions at the beaches, including rough surf and
wave runup to the dune line near times of high tide, leading to
minor beach erosion. Use caution at the beaches the next several
days.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A Moderate Risk of dangerous rip currents continues at all central
Florida beaches, in addition to the other hazards. Entering this
rough surf is not advised.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Northerly to northeasterly winds will freshen today, increasing to
20 to 25 knots by late tonight. Seas continue to build to 7 to 9
feet in the Gulf Stream, and 6 to 8 feet in the nearshore waters.

.RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
The Saint Johns River near Astor will rise back into Minor Flood
Stage today through at least mid week, primarily due to increasing
northeast winds coupled with increasing high astronomical tides.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible over the basin Wednesday into
Thursday..

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
Fresh northeasterly to easterly winds will continue to produce
numerous beach hazards, including large breaking waves, rough
surf, wave runup near high tides, minor beach erosion and coastal
flooding, and large choppy seas. The risk for numerous, strong,
life-threatening rip currents will remain Moderate to High.

A broad surface low developing in the western Gulf of Mexico is
forecast to move east across the Gulf of Mexico, reaching Florida
mid-week, resulting in high rain chances through Thursday, and a
slight chance for lightning storms on Wednesday and Thursday.
Repeated rounds of showers could produce locally heavy rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches or more through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

Haley