Wind Advisory 5, NWS Key West, FL

987 
WWUS72 KKEY 171308
NPWKEY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Key West FL
808 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

FLZ076>078-171415-
/O.CAN.KKEY.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-231217T1600Z/
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Including the Communities of Key Largo, Marathon, and Key West
808 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have decreased below Wind Advisory thresholds. Expect winds
to shift to the west to northwest this afternoon.

$$

CLR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1115 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2023

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1115 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2023

An active afternoon and evening across the Florida Keys. Areas of
rain with embedded squalls have been moving across the area
essentially all day. Some of these squalls have produced
impressively strong wind gusts with Sand Key C-MAN reporting 56
mph with Key West International and Marathon Airport registering
48 and 45 mph respectively. A surface low is quickly taking shape
and building strength across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and moving
northeast. The Florida Keys remain in the warm sector to our north
across South Florida. As such we remain under a southeast to south
wind everywhere. The cold front still poorly defined and has not
quite developed yet. KBYX is showing an uptick in organized
convection with a bit of lightning developing to the west and
northwest. Additional convection is possible ahead of the cold
front. There is still a chance for strong to isolated severe wind
gusts though the potential is winding down.

Winds have remained elevated and refuse to diminish quite yet.
Therefore, have decided to extend the Gale Warning for the coastal
waters and the Wind Advisory for the island chain. As winds clock
around to the southwest and west ahead of the front, we should see
gusts slacken. Even so windy conditions are expected to persist
behind the eventual cold front that will sweep through Sunday
morning. Strong southerly winds coupled with already high tidal
anomalies has led to a coastal flooding threat and will persist
through the overnight. Hence the continuation of the Coastal Flood
Advisory. Tide levels should stay below warning criteria for the
Lower Keys but it will be close. Lastly, Flood Watch will remain
in remain in effect until the end of the event.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1115 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2023

Strong to near-gale breezes will persist through the overnight.
Therefore the Gale Warning remains in effect for all of the
Florida Keys coastal waters. A low in the Gulf of Mexico will
continue to deepen overnight, maintain strong to near-gale
breezes across the Florida Keys through the overnight. Meanwhile,
strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible as the low moves
northeast across the Gulf towards Central Florida. The low will
continue to advance northeastward away from Florida early next
week, holding fresh to strong northerly breezes Monday and
Tuesday, then veering to the northeast on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2023
Movement and development of a low pressure system in the Gulf of
Mexico continues to drive unsettled weather near EYW and MTH.
Discrete, short-lived waves of showers will continue to generate
MVFR conditions at times. Weather conditions will transition
twice during the TAF period. Southerly winds with a crosswind
magnitude of 25 to 30 knots will persist through at least 09Z/17th.
A squall line is still also possible ahead of an approaching cold
front. Westerly winds will develop by 12Z/17th following the cold
frontal passage. Expect regular amendments for short-term
weather.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory for FLZ076>078.

 Flood Watch until for FLZ076>078.

 Wind Advisory for FLZ076>078.

GM...Gale Warning for GMZ031>035-042>044- 052>055-072>075.

&&

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW
Data Acquisition.....DR

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
1212 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2023

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-171100-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
1212 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Florida Keys through late
tonight. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with
localized amounts around 5 inches possible.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Bayside and Gulf Side,
including Florida Bay, due to east to southeast winds near 25
knots.

Gale Warning in effect for the Straits of Florida, Hawk Channel,
and the deeper waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico due to
southeast winds near 30 knots, with frequent gusts 35 to 40 knots.

A Wind Advisory is in effect due to east to southeast winds 20 to
25 mph, with frequent gusts near 40 mph.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for all the Florida Keys.
Saltwater flooding of low elevation streets and lots is expected.
The saltwater flooding will be further exacerbated by bouts of
heavy rainfall overnight.

There is a slight risk for strong to even severe thunderstorms,
particularly this afternoon and evening. The primary threats for
any strong to severe thunderstorm will be potentially damaging
winds, cloud to surface lightning strikes, heavy rainfall
possibly leading to localized flooding, and an isolated tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely continue through much
of next week, with peaks and lulls. These strong and gusty winds
may contribute to coastal flooding through Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

CLR