Wind Advisory 5, NWS Cleveland, OH

Ashland County, OH, Ashtabula County, OH, Crawford County, OH, Cuyahoga County, OH, Erie County, OH, Geauga County, OH, Hancock County, OH, Holmes County, OH, Huron County, OH, Knox County, OH, Lake County, OH, Lorain County, OH, Lucas County, OH, Mahoning County, OH, Marion County, OH, Medina County, OH, Morrow County, OH, Ottawa County, OH, Portage County, OH, Richland County, OH, Sandusky County, OH, Seneca County, OH, Stark County, OH, Summit County, OH, Trumbull County, OH, Wayne County, OH, Wood County, OH, Wyandot County, OH, Crawford County, PA, Erie County, PA

589 
WWUS71 KCLE 312338
NPWCLE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
738 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

OHZ003-006>010-017>020-027>031-036>038-047-010745-
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0005.230401T1200Z-230401T2000Z/
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-
Medina-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Marion-Morrow-
Holmes-Knox-
Including the cities of Toledo, Bowling Green, Perrysburg, 
Port Clinton, Oak Harbor, Genoa, Fremont, Bellevue, Clyde, 
Sandusky, Huron, Lorain, Elyria, North Ridgeville, Avon Lake, 
Findlay, Tiffin, Fostoria, Norwalk, Willard, Brunswick, Medina, 
Wadsworth, Upper Sandusky, Carey, Bucyrus, Galion, Crestline, 
Mansfield, Ashland, Wooster, Orrville, Rittman, Marion, 
Mount Gilead, Cardington, Millersburg, Killbuck, and Mount Vernon
738 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast and northwest 
  Ohio.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 4 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Brief wind gusts to 45 mph are possible 
  between 11 PM and 3 AM ahead of an approaching cold front. 
  Thunderstorms in that window may produce locally higher gusts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

OHZ011-013-014-021>023-032-033-PAZ002-003-010745-
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0005.230401T1400Z-230401T2200Z/
Cuyahoga-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Stark-
Mahoning-Southern Erie-Crawford-
Including the cities of Cleveland, Chardon, South Russell, 
Bainbridge, Chesterland, Middlefield, Burton, Jefferson, Orwell, 
Andover, Roaming Shores, Akron, Kent, Aurora, Streetsboro, 
Ravenna, Warren, Niles, Canton, Massillon, Alliance, Youngstown, 
Boardman, Austintown, Edinboro, Corry, Union City, Meadville, 
and Titusville
738 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Ohio, Cuyahoga, Geauga, Ashtabula Inland, Summit, 
  Portage, Trumbull, Stark and Mahoning Counties. In 
  Pennsylvania, Southern Erie and Crawford Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Brief wind gusts to 45 mph are possible 
  between 1 AM and 5 AM ahead of an approaching cold front. 
  Thunderstorms in that window may produce locally higher gusts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

OHZ012-089-PAZ001-010745-
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0005.230401T1400Z-230402T0100Z/
Lake-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
Including the cities of Mentor, Willoughby, Eastlake, 
Painesville, Willowick, Wickliffe, Ashtabula, Conneaut, Geneva, 
and Erie
738 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Ohio, Lake and Ashtabula Lakeshore Counties. In 
  Pennsylvania, Northern Erie County.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 9 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Brief wind gusts to 45 mph are possible 
  between 1 AM and 5 AM ahead of an approaching cold front. 
  Thunderstorms in that window may produce locally higher gusts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

983 
WWUS71 KCLE 010133
NPWCLE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
933 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

OHZ003-006>010-017>020-027>031-036>038-047-010945-
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0005.230401T1200Z-230401T2000Z/
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-
Medina-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Marion-Morrow-
Holmes-Knox-
Including the cities of Toledo, Bowling Green, Perrysburg, 
Port Clinton, Oak Harbor, Genoa, Fremont, Bellevue, Clyde, 
Sandusky, Huron, Lorain, Elyria, North Ridgeville, Avon Lake, 
Findlay, Tiffin, Fostoria, Norwalk, Willard, Brunswick, Medina, 
Wadsworth, Upper Sandusky, Carey, Bucyrus, Galion, Crestline, 
Mansfield, Ashland, Wooster, Orrville, Rittman, Marion, 
Mount Gilead, Cardington, Millersburg, Killbuck, and Mount Vernon
933 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast and northwest 
  Ohio.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 4 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Brief wind gusts to 45 mph are possible 
  between 11 PM and 3 AM ahead of an approaching cold front. 
  Thunderstorms in that window may produce locally higher gusts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

OHZ011-013-014-021>023-032-033-PAZ002-003-010945-
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0005.230401T1400Z-230401T2200Z/
Cuyahoga-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Stark-
Mahoning-Southern Erie-Crawford-
Including the cities of Cleveland, Chardon, South Russell, 
Bainbridge, Chesterland, Middlefield, Burton, Jefferson, Orwell, 
Andover, Roaming Shores, Akron, Kent, Aurora, Streetsboro, 
Ravenna, Warren, Niles, Canton, Massillon, Alliance, Youngstown, 
Boardman, Austintown, Edinboro, Corry, Union City, Meadville, 
and Titusville
933 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Ohio, Cuyahoga, Geauga, Ashtabula Inland, Summit, 
  Portage, Trumbull, Stark and Mahoning Counties. In 
  Pennsylvania, Southern Erie and Crawford Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Brief wind gusts to 45 mph are possible 
  between 1 AM and 5 AM ahead of an approaching cold front. 
  Thunderstorms in that window may produce locally higher gusts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

OHZ012-089-PAZ001-010945-
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0005.230401T1400Z-230402T0100Z/
Lake-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
Including the cities of Mentor, Willoughby, Eastlake, 
Painesville, Willowick, Wickliffe, Ashtabula, Conneaut, Geneva, 
and Erie
933 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Ohio, Lake and Ashtabula Lakeshore Counties. In 
  Pennsylvania, Northern Erie County.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 9 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Brief wind gusts to 45 mph are possible 
  between 1 AM and 5 AM ahead of an approaching cold front. 
  Thunderstorms in that window may produce locally higher gusts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

432 
WWUS71 KCLE 010752
NPWCLE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
352 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-011600-
/O.EXT.KCLE.WI.Y.0005.230401T1200Z-230402T0000Z/
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-
Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-
Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Toledo, Bowling Green, Perrysburg, 
Port Clinton, Oak Harbor, Genoa, Fremont, Bellevue, Clyde, 
Sandusky, Huron, Lorain, Elyria, North Ridgeville, Avon Lake, 
Cleveland, Mentor, Willoughby, Eastlake, Painesville, Willowick, 
Wickliffe, Chardon, South Russell, Bainbridge, Chesterland, 
Middlefield, Burton, Jefferson, Orwell, Andover, Roaming Shores, 
Findlay, Tiffin, Fostoria, Norwalk, Willard, Brunswick, Medina, 
Wadsworth, Akron, Kent, Aurora, Streetsboro, Ravenna, Warren, 
Niles, Upper Sandusky, Carey, Bucyrus, Galion, Crestline, 
Mansfield, Ashland, Wooster, Orrville, Rittman, Canton, 
Massillon, Alliance, Youngstown, Boardman, Austintown, Marion, 
Mount Gilead, Cardington, Millersburg, Killbuck, Mount Vernon, 
Ashtabula, Conneaut, Geneva, Erie, Edinboro, Corry, Union City, 
Meadville, and Titusville
352 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast and northwest 
  Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

018 
WWUS71 KCLE 011316
NPWCLE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
916 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-012130-
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230402T0000Z/
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-
Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-
Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Toledo, Bowling Green, Perrysburg, 
Port Clinton, Oak Harbor, Genoa, Fremont, Bellevue, Clyde, 
Sandusky, Huron, Lorain, Elyria, North Ridgeville, Avon Lake, 
Cleveland, Mentor, Willoughby, Eastlake, Painesville, Willowick, 
Wickliffe, Chardon, South Russell, Bainbridge, Chesterland, 
Middlefield, Burton, Jefferson, Orwell, Andover, Roaming Shores, 
Findlay, Tiffin, Fostoria, Norwalk, Willard, Brunswick, Medina, 
Wadsworth, Akron, Kent, Aurora, Streetsboro, Ravenna, Warren, 
Niles, Upper Sandusky, Carey, Bucyrus, Galion, Crestline, 
Mansfield, Ashland, Wooster, Orrville, Rittman, Canton, 
Massillon, Alliance, Youngstown, Boardman, Austintown, Marion, 
Mount Gilead, Cardington, Millersburg, Killbuck, Mount Vernon, 
Ashtabula, Conneaut, Geneva, Erie, Edinboro, Corry, Union City, 
Meadville, and Titusville
916 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast and northwest 
  Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

800 
WWUS71 KCLE 011947
NPWCLE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
347 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-020000-
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230402T0000Z/
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-
Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-
Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Toledo, Bowling Green, Perrysburg, 
Port Clinton, Oak Harbor, Genoa, Fremont, Bellevue, Clyde, 
Sandusky, Huron, Lorain, Elyria, North Ridgeville, Avon Lake, 
Cleveland, Mentor, Willoughby, Eastlake, Painesville, Willowick, 
Wickliffe, Chardon, South Russell, Bainbridge, Chesterland, 
Middlefield, Burton, Jefferson, Orwell, Andover, Roaming Shores, 
Findlay, Tiffin, Fostoria, Norwalk, Willard, Brunswick, Medina, 
Wadsworth, Akron, Kent, Aurora, Streetsboro, Ravenna, Warren, 
Niles, Upper Sandusky, Carey, Bucyrus, Galion, Crestline, 
Mansfield, Ashland, Wooster, Orrville, Rittman, Canton, 
Massillon, Alliance, Youngstown, Boardman, Austintown, Marion, 
Mount Gilead, Cardington, Millersburg, Killbuck, Mount Vernon, 
Ashtabula, Conneaut, Geneva, Erie, Edinboro, Corry, Union City, 
Meadville, and Titusville
347 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast and northwest 
  Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

144 
WWUS71 KCLE 012245
NPWCLE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
645 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-012345-
/O.CAN.KCLE.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230402T0000Z/
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-
Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-
Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Toledo, Bowling Green, Perrysburg, 
Port Clinton, Oak Harbor, Genoa, Fremont, Bellevue, Clyde, 
Sandusky, Huron, Lorain, Elyria, North Ridgeville, Avon Lake, 
Cleveland, Mentor, Willoughby, Eastlake, Painesville, Willowick, 
Wickliffe, Chardon, South Russell, Bainbridge, Chesterland, 
Middlefield, Burton, Jefferson, Orwell, Andover, Roaming Shores, 
Findlay, Tiffin, Fostoria, Norwalk, Willard, Brunswick, Medina, 
Wadsworth, Akron, Kent, Aurora, Streetsboro, Ravenna, Warren, 
Niles, Upper Sandusky, Carey, Bucyrus, Galion, Crestline, 
Mansfield, Ashland, Wooster, Orrville, Rittman, Canton, 
Massillon, Alliance, Youngstown, Boardman, Austintown, Marion, 
Mount Gilead, Cardington, Millersburg, Killbuck, Mount Vernon, 
Ashtabula, Conneaut, Geneva, Erie, Edinboro, Corry, Union City, 
Meadville, and Titusville
645 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have decreased allowing the wind advisory to be cancelled. A
few gusts may reach 35 mph through sunset.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
945 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A potent low pressure system over the Midwest will push east through
Saturday. The warm front ahead of the system will continue north
today. As the low passes to the north on Saturday afternoon, a cold
front will be dragged through the area. High pressure will build
into the region for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
9:30 AM Update:
Made minor edits to temps, dew points, winds/gusts and POPs
through 8pm/0z this evening based on observed trends and short-
term guidance...no major changes overall. Ongoing occasional
showers will exit from west to east later this morning into this
afternoon.

SPC has expanded the slight and marginal risks eastward for
tonight's severe threat. Wind fields are extreme though
instability will be lacking. With that said, most hi-res
guidance holds together a line of convection into our area near
or after midnight from the west, and given the wind fields it
won't be difficult for any remnant convective cores to bring
pockets of strong to locally damaging wind to the surface.

We will be evaluating the need for a Wind Advisory from some
point late tonight or early Saturday through Saturday afternoon
for much of the area over the next couple of hours.

Previous Discussion...
An action-packed near term forecast period ahead as a potent
low pressure system over the Midwest moves east into the Great
Lakes region over the next 36 hours. Multiple rounds of rain and
perhaps two round of thunderstorms, along with gusty winds, are
expected through Saturday evening.

This morning, rain is spreading through the Ohio Valley region
behind a warm front as warm air and moisture advection into the
region are providing enough lift to generate some showers
through out the area. Some thunder and lightning is present in
the Chicago metro, closer to the low, and the bulk of this
should stay north or diminish in a slightly less favorable
atmosphere, but a rumble or two is possible during the morning
hours and have a slight chance thunder mention. By afternoon,
there should be a lull in precipitation as the isentropic
forcing slides northeast and the dynamic forcing with the
incoming low level jet has not yet arrived. Have continued to
have a detailed forecast with even some dry PoPs by late
afternoon.

The first round of storm potential and gusty winds will be
tonight. As the surface low moves northeast toward the area. A
70 kt 850 mb jet will enter the region ahead of the low and the
associated cold front. This jet will continue to support shower
and thunderstorm activity that will develop later today over
Iowa and Illinois and become an organized severe weather threat.
The remnants of this convection will continue east toward the
forecast area by late evening and move through overnight. With
the strong jet energy across the area, there is potential for
the lingering convection to bring down some strong winds.
Therefore, there is a Marginal Risk for severe weather from SPC
for the western half of the area. The limiting factor is the
lack of instability. While temperatures will be warm today in
the 50s and 60s, there will be some cooling and subsidence that
the dynamic forcing should easily overcome, but it will limit
the upper bound of potential for tonight. The best window for
thunderstorms across the area seems to be about 11 PM to 5 AM.

Behind this overnight round of convection, there should be a
good amount of recovery in the region. Subsidence behind the
convection and the departing jet should allow for the area to
clear out and can see much of the area having a sunny Saturday
morning. The problem is that the area will still be ahead of the
main cold front and southeast of the surface low. Therefore,
there will be the potential for portions of the area to gain
instability ahead of the final passage of the system and there
will be the potential for another round of showers and
thunderstorms to develop, especially areas further east, where
there is more time to recover before the frontal passage.
Therefore, there is an upgrade to a Slight Risk for severe
weather from SPC. The main concern will be wind potential once
again. The best timing for storms will be in a window of about
Noon to 5 PM. Areas east could reach 60 degrees again on
Saturday before convection gets going.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The weather maker low pressure and its accompanying surface cold
front will be exiting the forecast area at the start of the short
term forecast period Saturday night. As the low moves northeastward
toward Nova Scotia, winds at the surface and aloft become
northwesterly. In addition, 850 mb temperatures behind the front
cool to -10 to -12 C. While high pressure looks to quickly build
into the region Sunday, there may be a brief period late Saturday
night/early Sunday morning where we could see some light snow
showers. Given how brief the window is and how quickly low levels
dry out little to no snow accumulation is expected.

High pressure will build across the region by Sunday and will cut
off any lingering light snow showers by daybreak. Dry weather does
not last for long as the next system approaches. Low pressure drifts
across the upper Midwest on Monday, lifting a warm front north on
Monday followed by a cold front during the day Monday. Rain chances
increase Monday afternoon and continue into the long term forecast
period.

Lows on Saturday night behind the cold front will fall into the mid
to upper 20s. Highs on Sunday in the upper 40s to low 50s, low to
mid 40s across extreme NE OH/NW PA. Warmer everywhere on Sunday
night with lows dropping to the low 40s (mid 30s in NW PA). Highs in
the 60s for most on Monday with overnight lows dropping into the mid-
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Aforementioned cold front becomes stationary by Tuesday allowing for
lingering moisture to support keeping PoPs in the forecast through
Tuesday. The next impactful system comes mid week as broad upper
level troughing and a surface low ejects out of the Rockies and
moves northeast toward the upper Midwest. The low will deepen as it
moves toward the upper Great Lakes region and will lift a warm front
north across the forecast area Wednesday. Following the warm front
will be a cold front that moves west to east through the CWA late
Wednesday into Thursday. Models are currently hinting at a decent
amount of instability to enter our region Tuesday afternoon through
late Wednesday, characterized by 500-900 J/kg of MUCAPE. However,
current runs are indicating that the best instability will stay to
our west. Regardless, this will likely be our next event to keep an
eye out for. High pressure begins to build behind this system,
shutting off any lasting showers on Thursday.

High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the upper 60s,
with some spots nearing the low to mid 70s by Wednesday. Highs on
Thursday will drop into the mid 50s behind the cold front. Low
temperatures will gradually cool through the long term beginning in
the 50s Tuesday night and ending in the mid 30s Thursday
evening.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Fairly active TAF period with non-VFR expected along with rain,
thunder, and strong winds. The area starts in VFR this morning
with hit and miss showers across the region. There has been very
limited MVFR with the clouds and visibility with the rain and
have improved the forecast to VFR for all sites with this first
batch through early afternoon. There should be a reprieve in
precipitation this afternoon as the area is between forcing
mechanisms for rain. Prior forecasts were more pessimistic with
IFR this afternoon and evening, but the dearth of IFR in the
region behind the rain this morning will allow for the forecast
to be more optimistic later in the TAF period as well and have
opted for MVFR ceilings this afternoon and evening. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop across Iowa and Illinois today and
move east through the evening and overnight into the airspace. A
strong low level jet will allow for thunderstorms to persist
into the area and believe that there will be a window for IFR as
well. The area will clear for Saturday morning behind this round
of convection. Winds through the period will be strong with good
jet energy in the region and a potent low pressure system to the
west. Wind gusts in the 20 to 40 kt range will be expected out
of the south to southwest. The best winds should be Saturday
morning.

Outlook...Additional showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR
conditions are possible on Saturday, especially across NE OH/NW
PA. Rain, changing to snow, is possible with and behind the cold
front Saturday. Additional non-VFR is possible with rain on
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A warm front will lift north across the lake this today allowing for
offshore flow to increase to 15-20 knots by late this morning. Winds
shift and become southwesterly by this evening, increasing to 20-25
knots by early Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon winds will be
approaching gales as low pressure passes north of the lake and its
accompanying cold front crosses the lake from west to east. Opted to
hoist a Small Craft Advisory, followed by a Gale Watch with
this update, forecast winds will need to continue to be
monitored before the decision to a Gale Warning would be made.
If not, small craft advisories will be needed for Saturday.
Given the strong southwesterly flow, will need to monitor water
levels at Toledo to see if a Low Water Advisory is necessary.

As the parent low exits northeast high pressure will build in from
the west. Winds become northwesterly by late Saturday evening and
diminish below 10 knots by Sunday morning. A warm front will lift
north across the lake late Sunday leading to southerly winds to
increase to 15-20 knots. A cold front crosses west to east across
the lake on Monday with the next impactful weather system coming mid
week which may be the next time frame for marine headlines.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ145>147.
     Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night
     for LEZ145>149-165>169.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Saturday for LEZ148-149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Iverson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
517 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-010930-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-
Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
517 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will enter the area overnight, bringing a
potential for damaging wind gusts. The best timing for storms is from
11 PM Friday to 5 AM Saturday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Behind any overnight shower and thunderstorm activity, wind gusts
will increase across the region and wind gusts in excess of 45 mph
are possible on Saturday morning and afternoon.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of a cold
front on Saturday afternoon. Any convection will bring another chance
for damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-145>149-165>169-010930-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Avon Point to Willowick OH-Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-
on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
517 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ142>144-162>164-010930-
Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
517 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Strong west-southwest winds will develop across the western portions
of Lake Erie on Saturday behind a cold front. These winds could allow
for water levels to dip below the critical mark for safe navigation
for the western basin of Lake Erie.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.