Wind Advisory 1, NWS Cleveland, OH

873 
WWUS71 KCLE 090253
NPWCLE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
953 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2023

OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>029-036-037-091100-
/O.CON.KCLE.HW.W.0001.230209T1400Z-230210T0300Z/
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Wyandot-
Crawford-Richland-Marion-Morrow-
Including the cities of Toledo, Bowling Green, Perrysburg, 
Port Clinton, Oak Harbor, Genoa, Fremont, Bellevue, Clyde, 
Sandusky, Huron, Findlay, Tiffin, Fostoria, Norwalk, Willard, 
Upper Sandusky, Carey, Bucyrus, Galion, Crestline, Mansfield, 
Marion, Mount Gilead, and Cardington
953 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South to southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 
  60 mph expected.

* WHERE...Lucas, Wood, Ottawa, Sandusky, Hancock, Seneca, 
  Wyandot, Crawford and Marion Counties.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 10 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

OHZ010>014-020>023-030>033-038-047-089-PAZ001>003-091100-
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0001.230209T1400Z-230210T0800Z/
Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Medina-Summit-
Portage-Trumbull-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
Including the cities of Lorain, Elyria, North Ridgeville, 
Avon Lake, Cleveland, Mentor, Willoughby, Eastlake, Painesville, 
Willowick, Wickliffe, Chardon, South Russell, Bainbridge, 
Chesterland, Middlefield, Burton, Jefferson, Orwell, Andover, 
Roaming Shores, Brunswick, Medina, Wadsworth, Akron, Kent, 
Aurora, Streetsboro, Ravenna, Warren, Niles, Ashland, Wooster, 
Orrville, Rittman, Canton, Massillon, Alliance, Youngstown, 
Boardman, Austintown, Millersburg, Killbuck, Mount Vernon, 
Ashtabula, Conneaut, Geneva, Erie, Edinboro, Corry, Union City, 
Meadville, and Titusville
953 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South to southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 
  55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Ohio and 
  northwest Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

770 
WWUS71 KCLE 090814
NPWCLE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
314 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2023

OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>029-036-037-091800-
/O.CON.KCLE.HW.W.0001.230209T1400Z-230210T0300Z/
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Wyandot-
Crawford-Richland-Marion-Morrow-
Including the cities of Toledo, Bowling Green, Perrysburg, 
Port Clinton, Oak Harbor, Genoa, Fremont, Bellevue, Clyde, 
Sandusky, Huron, Findlay, Tiffin, Fostoria, Norwalk, Willard, 
Upper Sandusky, Carey, Bucyrus, Galion, Crestline, Mansfield, 
Marion, Mount Gilead, and Cardington
314 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South to southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 
  60 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest Ohio.

* WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

OHZ010>014-020>023-030>033-038-047-089-PAZ001>003-091800-
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0001.230209T1400Z-230210T0800Z/
Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Medina-Summit-
Portage-Trumbull-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
Including the cities of Lorain, Elyria, North Ridgeville, 
Avon Lake, Cleveland, Mentor, Willoughby, Eastlake, Painesville, 
Willowick, Wickliffe, Chardon, South Russell, Bainbridge, 
Chesterland, Middlefield, Burton, Jefferson, Orwell, Andover, 
Roaming Shores, Brunswick, Medina, Wadsworth, Akron, Kent, 
Aurora, Streetsboro, Ravenna, Warren, Niles, Ashland, Wooster, 
Orrville, Rittman, Canton, Massillon, Alliance, Youngstown, 
Boardman, Austintown, Millersburg, Killbuck, Mount Vernon, 
Ashtabula, Conneaut, Geneva, Erie, Edinboro, Corry, Union City, 
Meadville, and Titusville
314 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South to southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 
  mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Ohio and 
  northwest Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to 3 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

811 
WWUS71 KCLE 091701
NPWCLE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1201 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2023

OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>029-036-037-100115-
/O.CON.KCLE.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230210T0300Z/
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Wyandot-
Crawford-Richland-Marion-Morrow-
Including the cities of Toledo, Bowling Green, Perrysburg, 
Port Clinton, Oak Harbor, Genoa, Fremont, Bellevue, Clyde, 
Sandusky, Huron, Findlay, Tiffin, Fostoria, Norwalk, Willard, 
Upper Sandusky, Carey, Bucyrus, Galion, Crestline, Mansfield, 
Marion, Mount Gilead, and Cardington
1201 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest Ohio.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

OHZ010>014-020>023-030>033-038-047-089-PAZ001>003-100115-
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-230210T0800Z/
Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Medina-Summit-
Portage-Trumbull-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
Including the cities of Lorain, Elyria, North Ridgeville, 
Avon Lake, Cleveland, Mentor, Willoughby, Eastlake, Painesville, 
Willowick, Wickliffe, Chardon, South Russell, Bainbridge, 
Chesterland, Middlefield, Burton, Jefferson, Orwell, Andover, 
Roaming Shores, Brunswick, Medina, Wadsworth, Akron, Kent, 
Aurora, Streetsboro, Ravenna, Warren, Niles, Ashland, Wooster, 
Orrville, Rittman, Canton, Massillon, Alliance, Youngstown, 
Boardman, Austintown, Millersburg, Killbuck, Mount Vernon, 
Ashtabula, Conneaut, Geneva, Erie, Edinboro, Corry, Union City, 
Meadville, and Titusville
1201 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Ohio and 
  northwest Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

117 
WWUS71 KCLE 092011
NPWCLE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
311 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2023

OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>029-036-037-100300-
/O.CON.KCLE.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230210T0300Z/
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Wyandot-
Crawford-Richland-Marion-Morrow-
Including the cities of Toledo, Bowling Green, Perrysburg, 
Port Clinton, Oak Harbor, Genoa, Fremont, Bellevue, Clyde, 
Sandusky, Huron, Findlay, Tiffin, Fostoria, Norwalk, Willard, 
Upper Sandusky, Carey, Bucyrus, Galion, Crestline, Mansfield, 
Marion, Mount Gilead, and Cardington
311 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds around 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest Ohio.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

OHZ010>014-020>023-030>033-038-047-089-PAZ001>003-100415-
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-230210T0800Z/
Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Medina-Summit-
Portage-Trumbull-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
Including the cities of Lorain, Elyria, North Ridgeville, 
Avon Lake, Cleveland, Mentor, Willoughby, Eastlake, Painesville, 
Willowick, Wickliffe, Chardon, South Russell, Bainbridge, 
Chesterland, Middlefield, Burton, Jefferson, Orwell, Andover, 
Roaming Shores, Brunswick, Medina, Wadsworth, Akron, Kent, 
Aurora, Streetsboro, Ravenna, Warren, Niles, Ashland, Wooster, 
Orrville, Rittman, Canton, Massillon, Alliance, Youngstown, 
Boardman, Austintown, Millersburg, Killbuck, Mount Vernon, 
Ashtabula, Conneaut, Geneva, Erie, Edinboro, Corry, Union City, 
Meadville, and Titusville
311 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Ohio and 
  northwest Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

497 
WWUS71 KCLE 100304
NPWCLE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1004 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2023

OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>029-036-037-100415-
/O.EXP.KCLE.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230210T0300Z/
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Wyandot-
Crawford-Richland-Marion-Morrow-
Including the cities of Toledo, Bowling Green, Perrysburg, 
Port Clinton, Oak Harbor, Genoa, Fremont, Bellevue, Clyde, 
Sandusky, Huron, Findlay, Tiffin, Fostoria, Norwalk, Willard, 
Upper Sandusky, Carey, Bucyrus, Galion, Crestline, Mansfield, 
Marion, Mount Gilead, and Cardington
1004 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

Winds have decreased enough to allow the wind warning to expire. 
A few gust may reach 45 mph through the overnight. 

$$

OHZ010>014-020>023-030>033-038-047-089-PAZ001>003-100800-
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-230210T0800Z/
Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Medina-Summit-
Portage-Trumbull-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
Including the cities of Lorain, Elyria, North Ridgeville, 
Avon Lake, Cleveland, Mentor, Willoughby, Eastlake, Painesville, 
Willowick, Wickliffe, Chardon, South Russell, Bainbridge, 
Chesterland, Middlefield, Burton, Jefferson, Orwell, Andover, 
Roaming Shores, Brunswick, Medina, Wadsworth, Akron, Kent, 
Aurora, Streetsboro, Ravenna, Warren, Niles, Ashland, Wooster, 
Orrville, Rittman, Canton, Massillon, Alliance, Youngstown, 
Boardman, Austintown, Millersburg, Killbuck, Mount Vernon, 
Ashtabula, Conneaut, Geneva, Erie, Edinboro, Corry, Union City, 
Meadville, and Titusville
1004 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Ohio and 
  northwest Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

308 
WWUS71 KCLE 100802
NPWCLE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
302 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2023

OHZ010>014-020>023-030>033-038-047-089-PAZ001>003-100915-
/O.EXP.KCLE.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-230210T0800Z/
Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Medina-Summit-
Portage-Trumbull-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
Including the cities of Lorain, Elyria, North Ridgeville, 
Avon Lake, Cleveland, Mentor, Willoughby, Eastlake, Painesville, 
Willowick, Wickliffe, Chardon, South Russell, Bainbridge, 
Chesterland, Middlefield, Burton, Jefferson, Orwell, Andover, 
Roaming Shores, Brunswick, Medina, Wadsworth, Akron, Kent, 
Aurora, Streetsboro, Ravenna, Warren, Niles, Ashland, Wooster, 
Orrville, Rittman, Canton, Massillon, Alliance, Youngstown, 
Boardman, Austintown, Millersburg, Killbuck, Mount Vernon, 
Ashtabula, Conneaut, Geneva, Erie, Edinboro, Corry, Union City, 
Meadville, and Titusville
302 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2023

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds across the area have continued to weaken, with sustained winds 
lingering near 20-25 mph with gusts primarily 30-35 mph. As a result 
of this and weakening of winds expected to continue, the Wind 
Advisory as been allowed to expire.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1234 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure ridge builds eastward across our region today and
then begins to exit eastward tonight as a warm front approaches from
the Lower Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys. This warm front should
sweep northeastward across our region Thursday morning through early
afternoon and be followed quickly by an eastward cold front passage
Thursday afternoon through early evening as a potent low moves from
the Mid Mississippi Valley toward southwestern Quebec. In the wake
of the low, a trough should linger over the Great Lakes and vicinity
on Friday as a ridge builds gradually from the northern and central
Great Plains through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1000 AM Update...
Knocked a degree or two off the afternoon high temperatures
today. Dry as we await the strong low pressure system organizing
over the Mississippi Valley.

Original Discussion...
Fair weather graces our CWA today as a stabilizing high pressure
ridge at the surface and aloft builds E'ward from the Upper/Mid MS
Valley and western Great Lakes. Lingering low clouds continue
to move steadily toward the east and southeast, and should exit
the rest of our CWA by midday. Once daytime heating commences
later this morning, compensating subsidence should eventually
develop within the low-level cloud field and at least partially
erode the low clouds. Intervals of sunshine and low-level WAA
should allow late afternoon highs to reach the 40's to 50F.

The ridge exits E'ward tonight as a potent shortwave trough
advances from the south- central U.S. toward the western Great
Lakes and the accompanying/deepening surface low moves NE'ward
from the Ozarks toward Chicagoland. This will allow a surface
warm front to approach from the Lower MS Valley and eventually
the Mid OH Valley. Isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of
the warm front amidst an impressive moisture feed from the Gulf
of Mexico should allow periods of light to moderate rain to
overspread our CWA from the southwest late this evening and
especially after midnight tonight. Lows should reach the 30's
around midnight tonight before temperatures moderate to the
upper 30's to lower 50's by daybreak Thursday as low-level WAA
strengthens ahead of the surface warm front. Of note, the low-
level atmospheric column is expected to be sufficiently-warm to
support plain rain as the surface precip type at the onset of
precip at any one location in our CWA (i.e. no snow, sleet
and/or freezing rain is expected).

On Thursday, the potent surface low should become occluded as it and
its parent shortwave trough/embedded mid- to upper-level low move
farther NE'ward toward Georgian Bay and become vertically-stacked.
This should allow the surface warm front to sweep NE'ward through
our CWA between about daybreak and early afternoon and be followed
quickly by an E'ward surface cold front passage during the early
afternoon through early evening. Despite a wealth of cloud cover,
including low clouds, daytime highs should reach the mid 50's to
lower 60's via strong low-level WAA ahead of the cold front. Periods
of rain, steady to heavy at times, are expected via very moist
isentropic ascent associated with the cyclone's warm conveyor belt
and via low-level convergence/moist ascent along the surface cold
front. SPC has included most of our OH counties in a marginal risk
of damaging convective gusts along and ahead of the cold front
given the expectation of a high shear/very low CAPE environment
in the warm sector, including S'erly to SW'erly flow as strong
as 40-65 knots at 925 mb, and the potential for surface-based
showers in the warm sector to transport most of that strong 925
mb flow down to the surface. However, models are in good
agreement that very limited sunshine and daytime heating will
greatly limit warm sector boundary layer destabilization, DCAPE
magnitudes, and the potential for damaging convective gusts. For
example, maximum magnitudes of SBCAPE are projected to be less
than 100 J/kg.

The High Wind Watch remains in effect for essentially the western-
quarter of our CWA, west of I-71. This is where peak S'erly to
SW'erly surface gusts of 55 mph or so are possible during the late
morning through early evening. However, much uncertainty remains
regarding the depth of convective mixing of the boundary layer via
daytime heating and magnitude of mean wind within the boundary
layer, which is often a good proxy for forecasting peak surface
gusts when diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer taps into
stronger flow aloft. Confidence is increasing, though, that diurnal
convective mixing of the boundary layer will be deep enough to
support peak surface gusts of about 40-50 mph in most or all of
our CWA, which would require a Wind Advisory. Future shifts will
continue to monitor this potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Gusty winds will linger through Thursday evening, especially in the
north as surface low pressure tracks northeast across Lake Huron.
Temperatures behind the front will fall into the mid 30s which is
close to normal high temperatures for this point in February.

Models have come into good agreement with the handling of the
elongated upper level trough by Friday, showing a piece closing off
over the lower Mid-Mississippi Valley and allowing the northern
stream to move through faster. Moisture advection along the frontal
boundary appears limited for Friday with just some low chance pops
Friday afternoon. Pops are a little higher heading into Friday night
as we start to get a little better moisture from the upstream lakes
with the arrival of the cooler airmass, but overall precipitation
has trended downward. Light snow will be mostly confined to the
snowbelt with amounts of less than an inch. Mid-level moisture will
be gone by Saturday and models even show the low level moisture
scouring out with strong high pressure building overhead. Saturday
will be the cooler day of the weekend with temperatures in the mid
to upper 30s but will feel fairly comfortable if the clouds end up
clearing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level ridge builds overhead bringing more above normal
temperatures for the long term forecast period. Surface high
pressure maintains dry weather Sunday into Monday with temperatures
trending back above normal again. A trough will swing across the
Great Lakes Monday night but precipitation chances look very low
given minimal moisture. Despite weak post frontal cold advection,
the ridge will start to build again by Tuesday with temperatures
warming back up into the low to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
A multifaceted low pressure system currently organizing over
the Mississippi Valley to the southwest will push northeastward
through the period providing a variety of weather impacts for
the aviation forecast.

Rain overspreads generally south to north after 05Z Thursday.
Prior to and after rain onset, expect ceilings to gradually
lower, but will mainly be dealing with an MVFR scenario as the
lower levels of the atmosphere saturate. Very strong low level
and surface winds should be expected with this system and will
see these increases taking place shortly after precipitation
onset. Prior to gusts occurring in the wind group, have added a
short wind of low level wind shear as the system approaches and
the winds off the surface ramp up considerably. This is prior to
any mixing taking place and a key component to the timing. Gusts
at the surface increase significantly after 12Z Thursday, and
35-45kts can eventually be expected at all terminals.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periods of primarily rain
Thursday evening through Friday. Non-VFR possible with periods
of rain mixing with and then changing to snow Friday night into
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will remain choppy on the far east end of Lake Erie
to start the morning but will improve quickly as high pressure
builds east across the region. Southwest winds will become light
then develop out of the east tonight as low pressure starts to
track out of the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Easterly winds of 10-20
knots will veer to the south on Thursday morning as a warm
front lifts north across the lake. As warm air overspreads the
cool waters, conditions will stabilize to some degree and limit
very strong winds associated with a low level jet from mixing
down. Winds ramp up to 30 knots on the western basin by late
afternoon then increase further to southwest at 30 to 40 knots
spreading east across Lake Erie through the evening. Have
expanded the Gale Watch to include the open waters east of
Vermilion beginning at 7 PM Thursday evening. Did not include
the nearshore waters in the Gale Watch but they will likely need
a Small Craft Advisory beginning around midday Thursday.

Low pressure will track northeast across Quebec on Friday with a
trough lagging on Lake Erie with decreasing southwest winds. A large
area of high pressure builds east across the region over the weekend
with generally good conditions and winds of 15 knots or less.

Ice continues to break up on Lake Erie with several days of above
normal temperatures this week. The above normal temperatures and
strong winds on Thursday will continue to disrupt the ice field and
may push floes out into the central part of the lake that was
previously ice free. People should stay off the ice this week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Highs are forecast to approach record levels at some locations
on Thursday. Here are the records for February 9th.

Location 			Record		Year
Akron/Canton 		65			1925
Cleveland			63			2001
Erie, PA			63			2001
Mansfield			61			2001
Toledo				62			1966
Youngstown			70			1937

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027-028-036.
PA...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Thursday evening through late Thursday night
     for LEZ165>168.
     Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     LEZ169.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/26
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...26
MARINE...KEC
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
358 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2023

OHZ009-010-019-020-029>031-037-038-047-091200-
Erie-Lorain-Huron-Medina-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
358 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Widespread peak wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph out of the south to
southwest are possible on Thursday. In addition, isolated damaging
wind gusts may accompany rain showers on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027-028-036-091200-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Hancock-Seneca-Wyandot-Crawford-Marion-
358 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2023

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

High Wind Watch on Thursday. Also on Thursday, isolated damaging
wind gusts may accompany rain showers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ142>149-162>164-091200-
Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
The Islands to Vermilion OH-Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Avon Point to Willowick OH-Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-
on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
358 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Southwesterly winds to 30 knots are likely behind a cold front late
Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. However, confidence
remains very low regarding the potential for gale-force winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ165>168-091200-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
358 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2023

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

Strong winds will develop behind a cold front on Thursday. Winds to
30 knots are likely but gale force winds can not be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-169-091200-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
358 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2023

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ011>014-021>023-032-033-089-PAZ001>003-091200-
Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Stark-
Mahoning-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
358 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Widespread peak wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph out of the south to
southwest are possible on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.