Alert archive / Ohio / River Flood Warnings in 2023

River Flood Warning 13, NWS Cleveland, OH

March 4, 2023Lorain County, Ohio

NWS Cleveland, OH issued this river flood warning at Mar 4, 2023, 2:26 AM EST for Lorain County, Ohio. It took effect at Mar 4, 2023, 5:59 AM EST. It was in force for 30 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 4, 2023, 2:26 AM EST (07:26 UTC)
In effect from: Mar 4, 2023, 5:59 AM EST
Expired: Mar 5, 2023, 11:55 AM EST
In force: 30 hr
Issued by: NWS Cleveland, OH
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Minor

County Lorain County, OH

The radar

The Cleveland radar (KCLE), 24 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Black River at Elyria (ELRO1). The gauge peaked at 10.85 ft at Mar 5, 2023, 4:00 AM EST.

Action stage: 7 ft
Minor stage: 9.5 ft
Moderate stage: 17 ft
Major stage: 20 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 04200500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

787 
WGUS41 KCLE 040726
FLWCLE

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
226 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

...The National Weather Service in Cleveland OH has issued a Flood 
Warning for the following rivers in Ohio...

  Black River At Elyria affecting Lorain County.

For the Black River...including Elyria...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued this afternoon by 1230 PM EST.

&&


OHC093-041730-
/O.NEW.KCLE.FL.W.0013.230304T1059Z-230305T0300Z/
/ELRO1.1.ER.230304T1059Z.230304T1800Z.230304T2100Z.NO/
226 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS MORNING TO LATE THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Black River At Elyria.

* WHEN...From early this morning to late this evening.

* IMPACTS...At 9.5 feet, Flooding begins south of Elyria in Carlisle 
  Township along Woodside Drive.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:15 AM EST Saturday the stage was 8.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    early this morning to a crest of 10.0 feet this afternoon. It
    will then fall below flood stage late this afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
  - Flood History...No available flood history.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4146 8219 4148 8212 4139 8207 4127 8215
      4128 8220 4140 8212


$$

4 follow-up statements

854 
WGUS81 KCLE 041718
FLSCLE

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1218 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Ohio...

  Black River At Elyria affecting Lorain County.

  Eagle Creek Above Findlay affecting Hancock County.

  Eagle Creek At Phalanx Station affecting Trumbull County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Ohio...

  Killbuck Creek Near Killbuck affecting Wayne and Holmes Counties.

  Portage River At Woodville affecting Sandusky and Wood Counties.

For the Portage River...including Woodville...Minor flooding is 
forecast.
For the Black River...including Elyria...Minor flooding is forecast.
For the Killbuck Creek...including Killbuck...Minor flooding is 
forecast.
For the Eagle Creek (Hancock)...including Findlay...Moderate 
flooding is forecast.
For the Eagle Creek (Trumbull)...including Phalanx Station...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued this evening at 1015 PM EST.

&&


OHC093-050330-
/O.EXT.KCLE.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-230305T1040Z/
/ELRO1.1.ER.230304T0918Z.230304T1800Z.230305T0440Z.NO/
1218 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Black River At Elyria.

* WHEN...Until late tonight.

* IMPACTS...At 9.5 feet, Flooding begins south of Elyria in Carlisle 
  Township along Woodside Drive.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:15 AM EST Saturday the stage was 10.3 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 11:15 AM EST Saturday was 10.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 10.3
    feet this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage late
    tonight.
  - Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    12.2 feet on 04/09/2000.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4146 8219 4148 8212 4139 8207 4127 8215
      4128 8220 4140 8212


$$

OHC063-050330-
/O.EXT.KCLE.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-230305T0402Z/
/FECO1.2.ER.230304T0216Z.230304T1545Z.230304T2202Z.UU/
1218 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Eagle Creek Above Findlay.

* WHEN...Moderate flooding through late this afternoon and minor 
  flooding until late this evening.

* IMPACTS...At 10.0 feet, water from the Eagle Creek will impact 
  portions of Southern Blanchard Street, Brookside Drive, Fremont 
  and Graceland Streets. The intersections of Beechmont Drive with 
  Fairmont and Rosemont Drives flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:00 AM EST Saturday the stage was 10.6 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 11:00 AM EST Saturday was 10.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    this evening and continue falling to 4.8 feet late Monday
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    10.9 feet on 04/11/2013.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4104 8366 4104 8363 4087 8366 4087 8370


$$

OHC075-169-050330-
/O.EXT.KCLE.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-230306T0000Z/
/KILO1.1.ER.230304T0918Z.230305T0000Z.230305T1800Z.NO/
1218 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Killbuck Creek Near Killbuck.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow evening.

* IMPACTS...At 16.0 feet, Flooded roads in and near Killbuck include 
  Water Street, County Road 621, State Route 60 south, State Route 
  520, as well as local low lying roads.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:00 AM EST Saturday the stage was 15.6 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 11:00 AM EST Saturday was 15.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 15.8
    feet this evening. It will then fall below flood stage early
    tomorrow afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    16.0 feet on 07/15/2006.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4099 8203 4099 8193 4067 8190 4045 8191
      4045 8202 4067 8202


$$

OHC155-050330-
/O.EXT.KCLE.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230305T2206Z/
/PHAO1.1.ER.230304T1000Z.230305T0000Z.230305T1606Z.UU/
1218 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Eagle Creek At Phalanx Station.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 11.0 feet, Barclay Messerly Road, McConnell East, and 
  Knowlton Roads will be flooded and impassable.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:00 AM EST Saturday the stage was 10.6 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 11:00 AM EST Saturday was 10.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 11.9
    feet this evening. It will then fall below flood stage late
    tomorrow morning.
  - Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    11.9 feet on 02/23/2022.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4133 8100 4129 8093 4128 8087 4124 8092
      4124 8095 4125 8100


$$

OHC143-173-050330-
/O.CON.KCLE.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-230305T1800Z/
/WDVO1.1.ER.230304T1013Z.230304T1800Z.230305T1200Z.NO/
1218 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Portage River At Woodville.

* WHEN...Until early tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 10.5 feet, Water is encroaching on State Route 105 in 
  Sandusky County northeast of U.S. 23. Water is in the backyard of 
  residents on Bierley, Bridge, and Water Streets in Pemberville.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:30 AM EST Saturday the stage was 9.9 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 11:30 AM EST Saturday was 9.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 10.0
    feet this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage
    tomorrow morning.
  - Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    10.1 feet on 03/09/1995.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4136 8354 4148 8334 4143 8334 4135 8349


$$

Saunders

872 
WGUS81 KCLE 050308
FLSCLE

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1008 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Ohio...

  Portage River At Woodville affecting Wood and Sandusky Counties.

  Black River At Elyria affecting Lorain County.

  Maumee River At Waterville affecting Lucas and Wood Counties.

  Scioto River Near Larue affecting Marion County.

  Killbuck Creek Near Killbuck affecting Wayne and Holmes Counties.

  Eagle Creek At Phalanx Station affecting Trumbull County.

For the Portage River...including Woodville...Minor flooding is 
forecast.
For the Black River...including Elyria...Minor flooding is forecast.
For the Maumee River...including Grand Rapids, Waterville...Minor 
flooding is forecast.
For the Killbuck Creek...including Killbuck...Minor flooding is 
forecast.
For the Eagle Creek (Trumbull)...including Phalanx Station...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Sunday morning at 815 AM EST.

&&


OHC095-173-051315-
/O.EXT.KCLE.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-230306T1000Z/
/WTVO1.1.ER.230304T2125Z.230305T0600Z.230306T0300Z.NO/
1008 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Maumee River At Waterville.

* WHEN...Until early Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 11.0 feet, A few riverside cabins in Waterville 
  become threatened. Lowland flooding occurs along with some water 
  inundation on River Road.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 PM EST Saturday the stage was 11.2 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 6:00 PM EST Saturday was 11.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 11.4
    feet just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below
    flood stage late tomorrow evening.
  - Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    11.4 feet on 02/28/1929.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4148 8376 4171 8348 4167 8345 4147 8371
      4145 8374


$$

OHC101-051315-
/O.EXT.KCLE.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-230306T1000Z/
/LARO1.1.ER.230304T1130Z.230304T1930Z.230305T2200Z.NO/
1008 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Scioto River Near Larue.

* WHEN...Until early Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 13.0 feet, River at bankfull in the Village of La 
  Rue. Widespread flooding on area roads including School Street.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 PM EST Saturday the stage was 12.8 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:00 PM EST Saturday was 13.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    tomorrow afternoon and continue falling to 5.4 feet Thursday
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    12.8 feet on 12/06/2011.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4061 8342 4055 8318 4052 8324 4055 8342


$$

OHC093-051315-
/O.EXT.KCLE.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-230305T1800Z/
/ELRO1.1.ER.230304T0918Z.230305T0215Z.230305T1200Z.NO/
1008 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Black River At Elyria.

* WHEN...Until early tomorrow afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 9.5 feet, Flooding begins south of Elyria in Carlisle 
  Township along Woodside Drive.
  At 11.0 feet, Flooding along the East Branch of the Black River on 
  Foster Road in Penfield Township.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:15 PM EST Saturday the stage was 10.6 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:15 PM EST Saturday was 10.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    tomorrow morning and continue falling to 6.5 feet Monday
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    12.2 feet on 04/09/2000.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4146 8219 4148 8212 4139 8207 4127 8215
      4128 8220 4140 8212


$$

OHC143-173-051315-
/O.EXT.KCLE.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-230306T2100Z/
/WDVO1.1.ER.230304T1013Z.230305T1200Z.230306T1500Z.NO/
1008 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Portage River At Woodville.

* WHEN...Until Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 11.0 feet, Water over State Route 105 in Sandusky 
  County. Water near homes on Water, Bierley, and Bridge Streets in 
  Pemberville. The river floods Trail Marker Park up to Erie Street 
  in Woodville.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:30 PM EST Saturday the stage was 10.9 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:30 PM EST Saturday was 10.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 11.2
    feet tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage
    late Monday morning.
  - Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    11.3 feet on 07/17/1972.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4136 8354 4148 8334 4143 8334 4135 8349


$$

OHC075-169-051315-
/O.EXT.KCLE.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-230306T1000Z/
/KILO1.1.ER.230304T0918Z.230305T0200Z.230306T0200Z.NO/
1008 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Killbuck Creek Near Killbuck.

* WHEN...Until early Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 16.0 feet, Flooded roads in and near Killbuck include 
  Water Street, County Road 621, State Route 60 south, State Route 
  520, as well as local low lying roads.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 PM EST Saturday the stage was 15.9 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:00 PM EST Saturday was 15.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late tomorrow evening and continue falling to 11.3 feet
    Thursday evening.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    16.0 feet on 07/15/2006.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4099 8203 4099 8193 4067 8190 4045 8191
      4045 8202 4067 8202


$$

OHC155-051315-
/O.EXT.KCLE.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230306T1600Z/
/PHAO1.1.ER.230304T1000Z.230305T0130Z.230305T1606Z.UU/
1008 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Eagle Creek At Phalanx Station.

* WHEN...Until late Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 11.0 feet, Barclay Messerly Road, McConnell East, and 
  Knowlton Roads will be flooded and impassable.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 PM EST Saturday the stage was 11.9 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:00 PM EST Saturday was 11.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late tomorrow morning and continue falling to 6.3 feet late
    Monday evening.
  - Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    11.9 feet on 02/23/2022.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4133 8100 4129 8093 4128 8087 4124 8092
      4124 8095 4125 8100


$$

Lombardy

892 
WGUS81 KCLE 051227
FLSCLE

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
727 AM EST Sun Mar 5 2023

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Ohio...

  Black River At Elyria affecting Lorain County.

For the Black River...including Elyria...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued this afternoon at 530 PM EST.

&&


OHC093-052230-
/O.EXT.KCLE.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-230306T0300Z/
/ELRO1.1.ER.230304T0918Z.230305T0915Z.230305T2100Z.NO/
727 AM EST Sun Mar 5 2023

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Black River At Elyria.

* WHEN...Until late this evening.

* IMPACTS...At 9.5 feet, Flooding begins south of Elyria in Carlisle 
  Township along Woodside Drive.
  At 11.0 feet, Flooding along the East Branch of the Black River on 
  Foster Road in Penfield Township.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 6:15 AM EST Sunday the stage was 10.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late this afternoon and continue falling to 6.2 feet tomorrow
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4146 8219 4148 8212 4139 8207 4127 8215
      4128 8220 4140 8212


$$

Garuckas

043 
WGUS81 KCLE 051655
FLSCLE

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1155 AM EST Sun Mar 5 2023

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Ohio...

  Black River At Elyria affecting Lorain County.

OHC093-051800-
/O.CAN.KCLE.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-230305T1655Z/
/ELRO1.1.ER.230304T0918Z.230305T0915Z.230305T2100Z.NO/
1155 AM EST Sun Mar 5 2023

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Black River At Elyria.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:15 AM EST Sunday the stage was 9.25 feet. Flood stage
    is 9.50 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 6:15 AM EST Sunday was 10.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river has fallen below flood stage late this
    morning and will continue falling to 6.2 feet by tomorrow
    evening.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4146 8219 4148 8212 4139 8207 4127 8215
      4128 8220 4140 8212


$$

Saunders

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Cleveland, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Mar 4, 1:23 AM EST, 1 hour 3 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 4, 1:23 AM EST, 1 hour 3 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
123 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over northeast Ohio early this morning will continue
to move eastward through the day. High pressure gradually
builds over the area Saturday night into Sunday. However a weak
upper level trough crosses the region Saturday night. The next
area of low pressure impacts the region Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low pressure over NE OH will continue to move east through the
morning. Significant pressure rises are moving in behind the are
area of low pressure which should assist with keeping winds
elevated. However stronger winds are struggling to reach the
surface, likely due to the lack of cold advection in the wake of
the low. Will leave the wind advisory going for now but think
the only place that has a chance will be along the lakeshore.

There may be a little bit of snow in the wake of the low this
morning. Maybe some weak enhancement across the hills of NW PA
but worst case is that this area gets a dusting to inch.
Otherwise only flurries across NE OH into NW PA through late
morning. Not all that cold in the wake of the storm system
today. Highs should range from the mid 30's to upper 40's.

A weak upper level trough moves across the region tonight with
the possibility of some scattered showers. These likely struggle
with minimal moisture to lift. The only thing that looks certain
is that the cloud cover persists through the overnight. This
should keep lows a bit warmer with them only dipping to the
lower to mid 30's.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather is anticipated for the start of the short term period as
a ridge builds east across the Great Lakes region. Temps will
recover further Sunday, with highs reaching the 40s across the
majority of the area and approaching the lower 50s in the south. On
Sunday night, an upper-level trough and deepening surface low will
advance from the west. A weak disturbance ahead of the system may
allow a few showers to sneak into northern zones as early as Sunday
night, but the next decent chance of rain arrives as a warm front
lifts across the CWA during the day Monday and low pressure and a
surface cold front follow Monday night into Tuesday. Warm air
advection will allow temps to rise into the mild mid to upper 50s to
lower 60s Monday. The best chance of precip will lie across NE OH
and NW PA Monday evening and can't rule out a few rumbles of thunder
depending on how much the atmosphere destabilizes in the warm
sector. Expect Monday night's lows to fall into the mid to upper
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure and its associated cold front will exit to the east by
Tuesday morning and cool northwest flow may result in scattered lake
effect snow showers across the snowbelt through Tuesday. A few
models are hinting at periodic snow showers persisting through
Thursday, but not a ton of confidence in instability/fetch at this
point. The next system will approach from the southwest on Friday,
but still a lot of spread in guidance to get too deep into details -
at this point, have chance PoPs Friday.

Generally expect highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s Tuesday
through Friday with lows in the mid to upper 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Low pressure was located over NE OH at 06Z and will continue to
move eastward through sunrise. The occluded front was located
across eastern Ohio and should be east of the region by 09Z.
Winds have had a difficult time increasing in the wake of the
occluded front with the lack of cold advection. Winds may still
gusts to 35 knots neat the lakeshore but should not exceed 30
knots elsewhere.

IFR ceilings should be only persist for a few hours in the wake
of the occluded front, likely with the remaining showers.
Otherwise MVFR ceilings should spread across the area but lift
through early afternoon. A weak upper level trough moves across
the region tonight with some scattered showers possible, mainly
closer to Lake Erie. In the wake of the showers we may need to
monitor for some fog across NW OH.

Winds should become northwest everywhere by 09Z at 15 to 20
knots. Gusts may reach 35 knots along the lakeshore. Winds
decrease through the day becoming light and variable by sunset.

Outlook...Non-VFR may persist across NE OH through Sunday in
lower ceilings. Non-VFR is possible in rain Monday into Monday
night.

&&

.MARINE...
East to northeast winds are ramping up this afternoon as deepening
low pressure advances from the southwest. The forecast through this
evening remains unchanged - northeast gales are still anticipated
with the tightening pressure gradient. A brief lull in gales is
anticipated as the center of the low moves northeast along the
central lakeshore near and/or shortly after midnight tonight, but
anticipate winds to quickly shift to the northwest and ramp back up
to gales on the backside of the low through Saturday morning. As a
result, have extended the Gale Warning several hours with an
eastward expansion to include all nearshore and open water zones to
as far east as Geneva-on-the-Lake.

Overall, not much has changed with the lakeshore flooding threat. As
of 345 PM EST, the water level at Toledo was 60 inches, which is 12
inches below lakeshore flood criteria. Still anticipate at least
minor lakeshore flooding in Ottawa and Lucas counties, although
confidence has decreased for Erie County (OH). Opted to cancel the
watch for Erie County, but hoisted a Special Weather Statement to
cover the low-end threat - most concerned about Kelleys Island and
perhaps the western tip of Cedar Point this evening.

To the east, Small Craft Advisories remain in place through Saturday
and the Gale Warnings will likely downgrade to Small Craft
Advisories on the tail end of this event.

Largely expect quiet marine conditions through Monday. The next
round of Small Craft Advisories may be needed as a cold front
crosses the lake Monday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for OHZ003-006>009-
     017-018.
     Wind Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for OHZ010>013-
     019>022-032-033.
     Wind Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for OHZ027>031-
     036>038-047.
PA...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ145>147-
     165>167.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ148-
     149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...MM
SHORT TERM...Maines
LONG TERM...Maines
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...Maines

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 3, 2:56 PM EST, 11 hours 30 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
256 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

OHZ009-042000-
Erie-
256 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ006-008-017-018-042000-
Wood-Sandusky-Hancock-Seneca-
256 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ007-042000-
Ottawa-
256 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Warning.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ019-027>030-036>038-047-042000-
Huron-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
256 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ003-042000-
Lucas-
256 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ014-023-089-042000-
Ashtabula Inland-Trumbull-Ashtabula Lakeshore-
256 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Winds may gust in excess of 40 mph today into tonight. Locally heavy
rainfall of around an inch may cause rises on area creeks and
rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ010>013-020>022-031>033-042000-
Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Medina-Summit-Portage-Wayne-Stark-
Mahoning-
256 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Locally heavy rainfall of around an inch may cause rises on area
creeks and rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ001>003-042000-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
256 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Winds may gusts in excess of 40 mph today into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ142>144-162>164-042000-
Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
256 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ145>147-165>167-042000-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
256 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-148-149-168-169-042000-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
256 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Mar 3, 10:04 PM EST, 4 hours 22 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1004 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

OHZ009-040900-
Erie-
Including the cities of Sandusky and Huron
1004 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE IN ERIE COUNTY, OHIO
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

Easterly to northerly winds up to 25 to 35 knots this evening will
shift to northwesterly early Saturday morning. Simultaneously,
waves as large as 5 to 11 feet are expected in the western basin
of Lake Erie. Water levels will remain elevated. Minor flooding
remains possible along the lakeshore in Erie County, especially
along the shore of Kelleys Island.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Cleveland, OH issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 3, 7:56 PM EST	Areal Flood Warning	CLE	Stark	26 hr
Mar 3, 8:42 PM EST	River Flood Warning	CLE	Hancock	25 hr
Mar 4, 1:02 AM EST	Areal Flood Advisory	CLE	Ashland, Crawford, Knox, Marion, Morrow, Richland	4 hr
Mar 4, 5:34 AM EST	River Flood Warning	CLE	Marion	28 hr
Mar 4, 11:50 AM EST	Areal Flood Warning	CLE	Ashland	7 hr
Mar 4, 5:39 PM EST	River Flood Warning	CLE	Lucas, Wood	37 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Ohio, 2023 Every river flood warning in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.