Alert archive / New York / Freeze Warnings in 2023

Freeze Warning 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

May 17, 202314 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this freeze warning at May 17, 2023, 10:57 AM EDT for 14 counties in New York. It took effect at May 17, 2023, 11:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 9 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 17, 2023, 10:57 AM EDT (14:57 UTC)
In effect from
May 17, 2023, 11:00 PM EDT
Expired
May 18, 2023, 8:00 AM EDT
In force
9 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 3.0 hours before the alert went out and 96 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2023-05-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2023-05-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -32 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
882 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
70 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-32 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
81 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

358 
WWUS71 KBUF 171457
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1057 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023

NYZ012>014-019>021-085-180000-
/O.UPG.KBUF.FZ.A.0002.230518T0300Z-230518T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.FZ.W.0002.230518T0300Z-230518T1200Z/
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, 
Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville
1057 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...A hard freeze and widespread frost with sub-freezing
  temperatures in the lower 20s expected. Temperatures near the
  Lake Erie shore will be in the middle 30s with patchy frost. 

* WHERE...Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, 
  Allegany, and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-180000-
/O.UPG.KBUF.FZ.A.0002.230518T0300Z-230518T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.FZ.W.0002.230518T0300Z-230518T1200Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1057 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...A hard freeze and widespread frost with sub-freezing
  temperatures in the mid 20s expected. Temperatures near the Lake
  Ontario shore will be in the lower to middle 30s with patchy
  frost.
 
* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-010-011-180000-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FZ.W.0002.230518T0300Z-230518T1200Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Buffalo, 
and Batavia
1057 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Widespread frost with sub-freezing temperatures in the
  lower 30s expected, including in outlying areas of Buffalo and
  Rochester. Temperatures near the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario  
  shores will be in the middle 30s with patchy frost. 

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Northern Erie, and 
  Genesee counties.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-180000-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FR.Y.0003.230518T0300Z-230518T1200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls and Medina
1057 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures in the lower to middle 30s will result in frost
  formation.

* WHERE...Niagara and Orleans counties.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if 
  left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

JLA
4 follow-up statements
391 
WWUS71 KBUF 172006
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
406 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

NYZ012>014-019>021-085-180415-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0002.230518T0300Z-230518T1200Z/
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, 
Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville
406 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
8 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...A hard freeze and widespread frost with sub-freezing 
  temperatures in the lower 20s expected. Temperatures near the 
  Lake Erie shore will be in the middle 30s with patchy frost.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, 
  Allegany, and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-010-011-180415-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0002.230518T0300Z-230518T1200Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Buffalo, 
and Batavia
406 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
8 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Widespread frost with sub-freezing temperatures in the 
  lower 30s expected, including in outlying areas of Buffalo and 
  Rochester. Temperatures near the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario 
  shores will be in the middle 30s with patchy frost.

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Northern Erie, and 
  Genesee counties.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-180415-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0002.230518T0300Z-230518T1200Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
406 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
8 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...A hard freeze and widespread frost with sub-freezing 
  temperatures in the mid 20s expected. Temperatures near the 
  Lake Ontario shore will be in the lower to middle 30s with 
  patchy frost.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-180415-
/O.CON.KBUF.FR.Y.0003.230518T0300Z-230518T1200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls and Medina
406 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
8 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures in the lower to middle 30s will result in 
  frost formation.

* WHERE...Niagara and Orleans counties.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if 
  left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

Apffel
259 
WWUS71 KBUF 180201
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1001 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

NYZ012>014-019>021-085-181200-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0002.230518T0300Z-230518T1200Z/
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, 
Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville
1001 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...A hard freeze and widespread frost with sub-freezing 
  temperatures in the lower 20s expected. Temperatures near the 
  Lake Erie shore will be in the middle 30s with patchy frost.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, 
  Allegany, and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-010-011-181200-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0002.230518T0300Z-230518T1200Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Buffalo, 
and Batavia
1001 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Widespread frost with sub-freezing temperatures in the 
  lower 30s expected, including in outlying areas of Buffalo and 
  Rochester. Temperatures near the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario 
  shores will be in the middle 30s with patchy frost.

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Northern Erie, and 
  Genesee counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-181200-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0002.230518T0300Z-230518T1200Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1001 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...A hard freeze and widespread frost with sub-freezing 
  temperatures in the mid 20s expected. Temperatures near the 
  Lake Ontario shore will be in the lower to middle 30s with 
  patchy frost.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-181200-
/O.CON.KBUF.FR.Y.0003.230518T0300Z-230518T1200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls and Medina
1001 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures in the lower to middle 30s will result in 
  frost formation.

* WHERE...Niagara and Orleans counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if 
  left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

Apffel
049 
WWUS71 KBUF 180835
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
435 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023

NYZ012>014-019>021-085-181200-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230518T1200Z/
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, 
Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville
435 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...A hard freeze and widespread frost with sub-freezing 
  temperatures in the lower 20s expected. Temperatures near the 
  Lake Erie shore will be in the middle 30s with patchy frost.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, 
  Allegany, and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-010-011-181200-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230518T1200Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Buffalo, 
and Batavia
435 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Widespread frost with sub-freezing temperatures in the
  lower 30s expected, including in outlying areas of Buffalo and 
  Rochester. Temperatures near the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario 
  shores will be in the middle 30s with patchy frost.

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Northern Erie, and 
  Genesee counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-181200-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230518T1200Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
435 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...A hard freeze and widespread frost with sub-freezing 
  temperatures in the mid 20s expected. Temperatures near the 
  Lake Ontario shore will be in the lower to middle 30s with 
  patchy frost.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other 
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-181200-
/O.CON.KBUF.FR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-230518T1200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls and Medina
435 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Temperatures in the lower to middle 30s will result in 
  frost formation.

* WHERE...Niagara and Orleans counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if 
  left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$
430 
WWUS71 KBUF 181155
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
755 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023

NYZ012>014-019>021-085-181300-
/O.EXP.KBUF.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230518T1200Z/
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, 
Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville
755 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023

...FREEZE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

Temperatures will quickly warm through the 40s and 50s this
morning.  

$$

NYZ003>005-010-011-181300-
/O.EXP.KBUF.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230518T1200Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Buffalo, 
and Batavia
755 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023

...FREEZE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

Temperatures will quickly warm through the 40s and 50s this
morning.  

$$

NYZ006>008-181300-
/O.EXP.KBUF.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230518T1200Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
755 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023

...FREEZE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

Temperatures will quickly warm through the 40s and 50s this
morning.  

$$

NYZ001-002-181300-
/O.EXP.KBUF.FR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-230518T1200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls and Medina
755 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023

...FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

Temperatures will quickly warm through the 40s and 50s this
morning.  

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this freeze warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this freeze warning went out at May 17, 6:49 AM EDT, 4 hours 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 17, 6:49 AM EDT, 4 hours 8 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
649 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is expected today, but it will be chilly behind a
departing cold front, with widespread a frost and freeze expected
tonight into early Thursday morning. The next chance of rain will
not arrive until Friday night or Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface cold front has moved well south of the area early this
morning. Stubborn cloud cover holding across most of the area this
morning in wake of the cold front. A very dry air mass will continue
to make its way into the region, but may have to wait until midday
before substantial clearing is realized. Despite increasing
sunshine by afternoon a deep thermal trough over the area with 850
mb temperatures around -5C will keep high temperatures in the
50s, with even some higher terrain remaining in the upper 40s. A
northerly breeze will make it feel a bit cooler.

High pressure will continue to settle into the region tonight. This
will result is clear skies and light winds. This will result in
temperatures falling to below freezing inland from the lakes with a
widespread frost. A Freeze Watch will be issued accordingly for
areas inland from the lakes. A frost advisory may eventually be
needed for areas closer to the lakes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather will continue into Thursday as high pressure persists
across the eastern Great Lakes. Chilly conditions will start
Thursday but with cold air retreating to the east, temperatures will
rebound with highs reaching the low 60s by afternoon. The surface
high will move east and a southerly flow will increase Thursday
night. Dry conditions persist with lows in the mid to upper 50s.

Warm air advection will ramp up ahead of an approaching cold front
Thursday night through Friday. In fact, 850mb temperatures will
reach +10C by Friday afternoon. Breezy, southerly winds and warmer
air aloft will relate to highs in the upper 70s to near 80 across
the lake plains and the 70s across the higher terrain. The warm air
aloft will cap convection Friday with mostly dry conditions. The one
exception will be across far western NY where a pre-frontal trough
moves near the Lake Erie region. There is a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms near Lake Erie by late Friday afternoon. It's
important to note that confidence remains low due to the timing
differences in the approaching cold front. Showers are possible
Friday night, however coverage and timing remain in question.
Breezy, southerly winds continue with low in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface low pressure will move across the eastern Great Lakes into
Ontario Saturday. The associated cold front will likely cross the
region, however as mentioned in the Short Term Discussion above,
there remains timing differences in the model guidance. Consensus
shows showers moving across the region Saturday and ending from west
to east by Saturday night. A dry airmass from Canada will move into
the region Sunday through Tuesday with dry weather expected.

Temperatures will be near to above normal Saturday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR or VFR cloud cover will scatter out by midday as drier air
builds in. Widespread sunny skies and VFR flight conditions for the
afternoon. Northerly component winds will to around 20 kts through
this afternoon and become calm around sunset this evening. Clear
skies will continue tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR.
Saturday...MVFR to VFR. Chance of showers.
Sunday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Northerly winds behind the passage of a cold front will support
small craft advisory conditions on the lakes and the Lower Niagara
River this morning. High pressure building south into the region
today will weaken winds through the day with winds eventually
become light by this evening.

High pressure will gradually shift off the East Coast Thursday and
Friday. Winds will become southerly by Friday with west-southwest
winds becoming established this weekend. At this time it looks
as if speeds will remain generally 15 knots or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
There will continue to be an increased risk for increased fire
behavior today. It will be dry areawide today, but considerably
cooler. Minimum relative humidity values will drop to near 20
percent while north winds will gust to 20 to 25 mph at times.

Some spotty very light rain Tuesday only managing a few
hundredths of an inch, so this keeps many areas very dry with
little to no rainfall for over a week. Per our fire weather
partners most areas are continuing to progress through green up.
This will limit the need for any fire weather products,
including fire weather watches or red flag warnings. A special
weather statement is in effect to highlight the dry and gusty
conditions today which could contribute to wildfire spread.

Relative humidity values will recovery tonight, with widespread
frost. Thursday will again be dry with minimum relative
humidity values dropping to near 20 percent, but winds will be
light.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Freeze Watch from this evening through Thursday morning for
     NYZ006>008-012>014-019>021-085.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ007-008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ040.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
         LEZ041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon
         for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
         LOZ030-042-045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/JLA/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
FIRE WEATHER...TMA
Hazardous weather outlook, May 17, 9:10 AM EDT, 1 hour 47 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
910 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023

NYZ001>005-010-011-181315-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee-
910 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The combination of dry conditions and gusty winds will create an
elevated risk for wildfire spread today.

Widespread frost is expected tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-181315-
Jefferson-Lewis-
910 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Freeze Watch.

The combination of dry conditions and gusty winds will create an
elevated risk for wildfire spread today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Freeze Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012>014-019>021-085-181315-
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
910 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Freeze Watch.

The combination of dry conditions and gusty winds will create an
elevated risk for wildfire spread today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Freeze Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-181315-
Oswego-
910 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Freeze Watch.

The combination of dry conditions and gusty winds will create an
elevated risk for wildfire spread today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Freeze Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-181315-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
910 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

JLA

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 17, 4:57 AM EDT, 6 hours before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
457 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-172200-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, Lowville, Buffalo, Batavia,
Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville,
Orchard Park, and Springville
457 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023

...ELEVATED RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD TODAY...

A combination of dry conditions and wind today will create an
elevated risk of wildfire spread across western and north central
New York. Relative humidity values will drop to as low as 20
percent, with winds gusting up to 20 to 25 mph at times. Despite
the recent green-up, these conditions may allow for rapid spread
of fires if ignition occurs.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 17, 3:53 AM EDTFreeze WatchBUFAllegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Jefferson, Lewis and 4 more7 hr
May 17, 10:57 AM EDTFrost AdvisoryBUFNiagara, Orleans21 hr

Nearby

Freeze Warnings in New York, 2023Every freeze warning in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.