Flash Flood Warning 21, NWS Binghamton, NY

627 
WGUS71 KBGM 130155
FFSBGM

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
955 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

NYC105-130205-
/O.EXP.KBGM.FF.W.0021.000000T0000Z-230813T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sullivan NY-
955 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
NORTHEASTERN SULLIVAN COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 4174 7457 4174 7458 4176 7476 4185 7487
      4198 7472 4199 7472 4198 7470 4190 7451
      4188 7447 4188 7445 4187 7446 4181 7451
      4181 7452 4180 7452 4178 7454 4176 7456
      4175 7457 4175 7458

$$

MWG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
536 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will move through the region Saturday, and is expected
to bring scattered to widespread showers and strong to severe storms
Saturday afternoon and through the evening. Brief high pressure
with pleasant weather expected on Sunday before the next system
moves in late on Monday through Tuesday with widespread rain
showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
530 PM Update...

Storms are currently limited to the Twin Tiers but there are
more storms developing across north-central PA. Some of these
storms are severe with strong winds and hail. Instability and
shear remain high enough to support strong to severe
thunderstorms. All hazards also remain possible, though
significant hail as highlighted by SPC does not seem possible
given lower lapse rates. There is a shortwave in far western
NY/PA that is progressing eastward slower than expected. This
will likely be the feature that brings in additional storms
later this evening as indicated by the CAMs. There is
uncertainty about coverage of the later round of storms. For
this update, PoPs were updated through the early evening, mainly
trying to capture what is currently ongoing.

245 PM Update...

Storms have developed as expected early this afternoon over portions
of CNY. SPC mesoanalysis is showing that instability is beginning to
increase with plenty of shear to help keep organized thunderstorms
active. DCAPE is increasing to 800 to 1000 J/kg and strong low-
level flow will both support strong or even damaging wind gusts.
Large hail is possible given the amount of instability,
steepening lapse rates, and instability through the hail growth
zone. Low-level shear will be between 20 and 30 kts and LCL
heights are below 1000 ft. This would support localized
tornadoes as well. All of this matches up well with SPC's
Outlook and hazards outlined.

As mentioned in previous discussions earlier today, the first round
is what is currently ongoing. The second round of storms will
be a QLCS later this evening as the cold front approaches. The
severe threat for this later round will shift further south from
the Twin Tiers and areas further southward. With the second
round, the main threats will be damaging wind gusts with the
possibility of weak spin ups within the line. By midnight,
storms will diminish though some lingering isolated showers will
be possible. Besides the severe threat today, heavy rain is
also possible. Given the antecedent conditions, isolated flash
flooding cannot be ruled out. The advantage of today is that
storms will be quick moving but if any areas were to observe
more than a couple thunderstorms.

High pressure and drier air move in early Sunday morning. Skies may
scatter out overnight and combined with light winds and added
moisture from the rain showers, patchy fog will be possible,
especially in the valleys. Any fog that develops should clear out by
mid-morning and be followed by a sunny day to finish out the
weekend. Patchy fog or low stratus may be possible again late
Sunday, but some model soundings show limited moisture near the
surface, so confidence was too low to include fog in the
forecast.

Temperatures tonight will fall into the 60s. With cooler air in
place, temperatures will max out a couple degrees cooler than today
but will still be pleasant being in the 70s and low 80s. Sunday's
lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM Update...

There was little change with this update and the previous
forecast discussion remains valid.

     Previous Discussion...

High pressure will gradually give way to another frontal
boundary late Monday night through Tuesday. Enough lift and
moisture look to be present for a few rounds of showers. Brief
heavy downpours are a concern with modeled PW values reaching 2
inches. Some slight instability may allow for a few
thunderstorms as well on Tuesday. Highs should reach 80 Monday
and Tuesday with lows in the 60's Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM Update...

There was little change with this update and the previous
forecast discussion remains valid.

     Previous Discussion...

The cold front and associated low pressure system move east of
the region by Wednesday. However, suspect northwest flow may
keep some clouds around longer than modeled given typical bias
of the NBM. These clouds have the potential to keep high
temperatures in the 70's. High pressure builds into the region
by Thursday with more divergent solutions present with ensemble
guidance by Friday. For now, just added a low chance for a few
showers. Generally lows around 60 and highs getting into the low
and mid 80's to end the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
All terminals will be VFR through this evening. However, there
is a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms, so brief
restrictions will be possible if a shower/storm passes over a
terminal. There is a risk for severe thunderstorms, so strong
wind gusts and hail will be possible. Storm activity winds down
late this evening and all terminals will remain VFR until the
early morning hours. Then low ceilings will bring additional
restrictions to the NY terminals. Fog is also possible at RME
and ELM. The low ceilings may stick around through midday at SYR
and RME. The one uncertainty is that skies may scattered out
early in the morning, leading to VFR conditions earlier than
expected.

Gusty southwest winds will become calmer overnight. Winds become
westerly by Sunday afternoon with some lighter gusts under 15
kts possible at some terminals.

Outlook...

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

Monday night through Tuesday...Restrictions likely in showers
and thunderstorms.

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BTL/KL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...MPK/MWG
LONG TERM...BJT/MPK/MWG
AVIATION...BTL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1255 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-131700-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
1255 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...TORNADO WATCH 634 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
602 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Elmira                  42.09N 76.81W
08/12/2023                   Chemung            NY   911 Call Center

            wires down on Broadway Street time estimated
            from radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
606 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 N Deposit             42.08N 75.42W
08/12/2023                   Delaware           NY   911 Call Center

            trees and wires down across Nelson Frank
            Road time estimated from radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
611 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NW Liberty            41.81N 74.76W
08/12/2023                   Sullivan           NY   911 Call Center

            Tree and wires down near the intersection of
            Buckley St and West St.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
628 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 N White Sulphur Sprin 41.83N 74.84W
08/12/2023                   Sullivan           NY   911 Call Center

            Trees down on Lenape Lake Rd between
            Campbell and Parks Roads.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
630 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSW Beach Haven       41.06N 76.19W
08/12/2023                   Luzerne            PA   Trained Spotter

            Numerous trees down.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
632 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Fishs Eddy              41.96N 75.17W
08/12/2023                   Delaware           NY   Emergency Mngr

            Several trees down State Highway 17, Peas
            Eddy Road. Time estimated from radar.

&&

BJG