Gale Warning 21, NWS Anchorage, AK

901 
FZAK62 PAFC 262344
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
244 PM AKST Thu Jan 26 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-271345-
244 PM AKST Thu Jan 26 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1007 mb low at 50N 172W dissipates Fri morning. Its front moves 
into Western Alaska and dissipates Sat morning. A Northern Bering 
front moves into the Chukchi Sea for Fri afternoon. A 976 mb North 
Pacific low Fri afternoon approaches the Western Aleutians at 951 mb 
by Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-271345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
244 PM AKST Thu Jan 26 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 18 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ412-271345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
244 PM AKST Thu Jan 26 2023

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ413-271345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
244 PM AKST Thu Jan 26 2023

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ414-271345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
244 PM AKST Thu Jan 26 2023

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

254 
FZAK62 PAFC 271248
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
348 AM AKST Fri Jan 27 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-280145-
348 AM AKST Fri Jan 27 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A weak front in the eastern Bering Sea pushes into Western Alaska
through Sat morning. A 975 mb North Pacific low Fri afternoon 
reaches 50N 166E at 950 mb Sat afternoon, then moves to 54N 166E 
at 952 mb Sun morning. Its front pushes through the western 
Aleutians Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-280145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
348 AM AKST Fri Jan 27 2023

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 25 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 29 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-280145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
348 AM AKST Fri Jan 27 2023

.TODAY...SE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 10
to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ413-280145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
348 AM AKST Fri Jan 27 2023

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ414-280145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
348 AM AKST Fri Jan 27 2023

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

152 
FZAK62 PAFC 272352
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
252 PM AKST Fri Jan 27 2023

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-281415-
252 PM AKST Fri Jan 27 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A weak front moves into Western Alaska through Sun afternoon. A 
second front crosses the Central Aleutians and dissipates in the 
Central Bering for Sun morning. A 973 mb North Pacific low moves 
to 50N 166E at 948 mb by Sat afternoon, then shifts to the Central
Kamchatka Coast at 954 mb for Sun afternoon. Its front extends 
across the central Aleutians and Bering through Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-281415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
252 PM AKST Fri Jan 27 2023

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 to 55 kt diminishing to 35 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 27 ft. Snow.
.SUN...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 27 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 20 to 27 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 26 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.WED...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-281415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
252 PM AKST Fri Jan 27 2023

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-281415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
252 PM AKST Fri Jan 27 2023

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind up to 15 kt becoming S 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Snow.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ414-281415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
252 PM AKST Fri Jan 27 2023

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
438 PM AKST Wed Jan 25 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The general pattern over Southern Alaska is very cold
temperatures over the eastern Bering Sea with quite warm
temperatures over Southcentral Alaska and warmer air approaching
the Western Aleutians from the southwest. In Southcentral, there
is a low over Prince William Sound early this afternoon tracking
quickly to the northeast which is the source of the rain along the
coast and wintery mix in the Copper River Basin. Another surface
low is over the land near Bristol Bay and heading to the northeast
as well. This low will bring in a quick bout of rain/snow for the
Cook Inlet and Susitna region this afternoon into early evening
with good pressure rises increasing southerly winds behind it.
These southerly winds have already kicked in early this afternoon
in Dillingham and King Salmon. The Kuskokwim Delta is on the far
side of a cold front and Bethel again remained below zero most of
the day.
Even with cold air over the Bering Sea, the CIMSS MIMIC satellite imagery
is showing large amounts of precipitable water associated with
warm air heading into the western Aleutians. This is the system
that will bring the precipitation type challenges into Southwest
Alaska later this week as the ridge, currently south of the Gulf
of Alaska, amplifies.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good synoptic agreement into the weekend and then
some meaningful upper level differences begin to show up early
next week. In the smaller-scale and nearer term, the low in
Southcentral seems to have a common solution that is working out
today. The bigger question is in Southwest Alaska on Friday where
the infusion of warm air above the surface will bring in a
freezing rain profile for much of Southwest, but models are still
differing a bit on where the precipitation will fall on Friday so
that is the most impactful model question at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist. Southerly winds
gusting 20-30 kt are likely this evening through tomorrow morning
and then diminish.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Saturday)...

A surface front weakens along the northeast Gulf coast this
afternoon, and most of the associated precipitation has moved
inland north of Prince William Sound. Various upper-level
shortwaves will soon track northeast across Southcentral and
promote a quick round of rain/snow tonight through Thursday
morning. Most of the precipitation will be focused over
northeastern Prince William Sound, the northern Susitna Valley,
the mountains surrounding the Copper River Basin, and the
Talkeetna Mountains/Hatcher Pass. Precipitation tapers off across
Southcentral by Thursday afternoon as a ridge of high pressure
builds northward from the Gulf, blanketing the region through at
least Saturday. While overall conditions under the ridge will be
dry, clear, and cold, areas of fog and low stratus will not be out
of the question. There is a chance for Kodiak Island to see some
light rain on Friday as a front clips the southern part of the
island.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An active weather pattern is expected over the next couple of
days. A warm front will move across Southwest Alaska and bring
much warmer temperatures as well as a mix of wintry precipitation.
on Friday. Precipitation will begin as a mix of snow and sleet
across the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay Friday morning. This
mix of snow and sleet will then turnover to freezing rain Friday
afternoon. The highest ice accumulations are expected to be around
0.10" and will be located across Bristol Bay. Ice accumulations
are expected to be lower across the Kuskokwim Delta since colder
temperatures will help the precipitation type remain as snow
longer than in Bristol Bay.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

An active weather pattern continues for the Bering/Aleutians over
the next couple of days as low pressure moves through the area.
Widespread gale force winds with localized areas of storm force
winds are expected. Blowing snow will reduce visibility to around
one half of a mile at times in the Pribilof Islands tonight into
tomorrow morning. Winds will then gradually ease on Friday as this
low exits the region.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

An amplified pattern persists through the weekend and into the
beginning of the workweek. Model confidence regarding the synoptic
flow for this period is high with lower confidence regarding
timing and intensity of upcoming trough passages. A strong ridge
over the Mainland will aide in keeping sensible weather relatively
low impacts for the majority of southern Alaska, with the
exception of the Aleutians. A front will enter the western
Aleutians Saturday afternoon and advance eastward, reaching Atka
by Sunday afternoon. The northern edge of a weak North Pacific low
looks to supplement the disturbed pattern across the central and
eastern Aleutians for the remainder of the weekend. Abnormally
higher temperatures, due to the ridge overhead, will persist
through the weekend with cooler temperatures looking to work their
way back in early in the workweek. The GFS continues to suggest a
slower breakdown of the ridge which will aide in holding off the
northward progression of the North Pacific low and stalling the
aforementioned front to lose its structural integrity by Tuesday
morning. The Euro breaks down the ridge much faster which allows
for the progression of the front moving eastward across the Chain
to merge with the northward pushing North Pacific low, creating a
widespread precipitation event across Southern Alaska Tuesday
afternoon. The main focus will be on when the ridge truly begins
to breakdown to know for sure what kind of sensible weather to
expect for the region. Typically, a strong ridge like the one that
will set up over the region, takes longer to breakdown than what
the Euro is suggesting. However, details will become more clear
with later model runs. Stay tuned to our latest forecast to obtain
the most up-to-date expectations.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY: 195.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 160 180 185.
         Gale Warning: 165 170 172-181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ED
LONG TERM...NS