Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Tulsa, OK

718 
WWUS54 KTSA 300359
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1059 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

OKC113-300430-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-220330T0430Z/
Osage OK-
1059 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY...

At 1057 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 10 miles southwest of Dexter to 2 miles south of Hardy
to 4 miles north of Kaw Lake, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations in or near the path include...
Shidler...                        Grainola...
Foraker...                        Webb City...

At 10:55 PM...the Newkirk Oklahoma Mesonet reported a 67 mph wind 
gust from the line of storms.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9629 3681 9639 3676 9682 3677 9682
      3677 9679 3678 9679 3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0357Z 248DEG 46KT 3707 9685 3694 9681 3685 9685 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
928 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 916 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

Currently keeping a watchful eye on the strong/severe convection
stretching from south central KS into northern OK (which is
coincident with the main axis of surface-based instability).
Instability drops off considerably to the east of this activity,
so there is some question of storm strength over the next few
hours as the convection nears portions of northeast OK.

Of more concern may be the activity currently across parts of
southwest OK into TX. HRRR has remained consistent in showing a
modest increase in instability later tonight (generally after
07-08Z) across southeast OK into western/northwestern AR as
low/mid 60s surface dewpoints surge north. Thus, expect this
convection to continue to organize as it tracks east, with a band
of storms eventually sweeping through the area later tonight into
early Wednesday morning. Low-level helicity values will be
maximized later tonight from southeast OK into western AR, likely
increasing the QLCS tornado/damaging wind threat at least for a
few hours.

Have made ongoing tweaks to PoPs based on current radar trends.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

Tonight's strong to severe thunderstorms may linger into the
daylight hours tomorrow morning, but they are expected to
transition east of the area by mid to late morning. With the cold
front still to our west tomorrow morning, another round of showers
and thunderstorms may develop and sweep through the region during
the day, although severe weather is not expected. Expect strong
and gusty northwesterly winds to move in behind the front, in
addition to falling temperatures. Current forecast wind gusts are
right at Wind Advisory criteria for portions of eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas but will let later shifts have another look
at it, especially given the multiple watch/warning/advisory
products we currently have out today.

Temperatures behind the front for Wednesday night through Thursday
night will be chillier than what we've seen the last few days.
Things will warm up some for Friday, in advance of an upper level
system that will move through late Friday and Friday night. Expect
some showers and thunderstorms through early Saturday, with little
to no severe weather threat.

Much of the upcoming weekend should be fairly quiet, with
temperatures just above normal and dry conditions. Another storm
system early next week will bring more shower and thunderstorm
chances, including some severe weather potential.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

VFR cigs will prevail tonight outside of expected storm activity.
A cold front will bring MVFR cigs with it on Wednesday. Tempo
groups were used to define the most likely time windows for
convection at each site. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected
briefly with the storms. Strong S winds will lessen late tonight
before switching to NW Wednesday behind cold fropa. Gusts 25 to 35
kts possible outside of storms, with 40 to 50 kt gusts possible
with the storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  64  35  59 /  90  50   0   0
FSM   58  69  38  59 /  90  90   0   0
MLC   56  69  38  60 / 100  40   0   0
BVO   51  60  33  57 /  90  70   0   0
FYV   56  66  32  55 / 100  90   0   0
BYV   56  66  36  52 /  90 100   0   0
MKO   56  67  35  56 / 100  60   0   0
MIO   54  63  33  52 / 100  80   0   0
F10   55  65  36  58 / 100  40   0   0
HHW   57  74  40  62 / 100  80   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
450 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
450 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 10 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 10 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 10 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...

Unseasonably warm and windy conditions will persist the remainder
of the afternoon ahead of strong upper level storm system. Southerly
winds gusting in the 35 to 45 mph will increase the risk of
aggressively spreading grassland fires.

Thunderstorm chances will increase across across portions of
northeast Oklahoma late this evening as the storm system approaches.
A line of strong storms will likely develop, spreading east across
the remainder of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas overnight
through early Wednesday morning. The line of storms will be capable
of locally damaging winds and quickly developing tornadoes through
the late night hours.

Initial storms should move into portions of northeast Oklahoma northwest
of Tulsa between 10 pm and midnight, with a line of storms eventually
spreading across the remainder of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
after 3 to 4 am.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY and MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing Wednesday morning across
portions of western Arkansas, but will shift east of the region by
mid morning. Additional scattered storms may develop Wednesday
afternoon and may produce brief instances of small hail.

The next chance of storms arrives late Friday but severe weather
appears unlikely at this time. A stronger storm system will begin to
impact the region by Monday with another round of strong
thunderstorms, including the potential for more widespread heavy
rainfall. Severe weather chances will also begin to increase into
early next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.