Rip Current Statement 11, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
724 AM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

.AVIATION...
Some MVFR cigs prevail this morning and could linger until around 14Z
or so, but then VFR is expected through the rest of the day. South
winds will increase with some higher gusts later this morning and
through the afternoon and will also turn more southwest through the
day.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 345 AM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022/

DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure out in the Atlantic Ocean will continue to
stretch west across the Florida straits with a breezy south to
southwest flow across the area today. Similar to yesterday we'll
see a few showers and thunderstorms pop up, but mainly over the
northern Nature Coast and eastern half of the Florida peninsula,
with most of the forecast area remaining dry into early tonight.

For late tonight and Thursday some upper level energy will be
moving through the trough over the eastern half of the U.S. with
an associated cold front moving across the region. This will lead
to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with a chance
for a few strong to severe storms with damaging winds, hail, and
an isolated tornado/waterspout possible.

Convection will shift south and come to an end Thursday evening
with breezy northwest winds ushering in refreshingly cooler drier
air on Friday. This cooler drier air will hold on through the
weekend as high pressure builds in from the west and moves across
the state on Sunday.

Early next week winds will veer around to the east and then
southeast as the high moves out into the Atlantic Ocean with the
moderating trend getting underway, but dry conditions will prevail
as upper level ridging builds over the Florida peninsula.

AVIATION...
Some areas of MVFR/local IFR conditions are expected early this
morning, otherwise VFR conditions should prevail. Southerly winds
at 5 to 10 knots early this morning will increase to 10 to 15
knots with some higher gusts by late morning and then shift to
southwest this afternoon. South to southwest winds will diminish
during Wednesday evening to around 10 knots.

MARINE...
High pressure over the Atlantic Ocean and extending southwest
across the Florida straits will support south to southwest winds
in the Cautionary range today. On Thursday, a cold front will move
south through the waters with southwest winds ahead of it
shifting to the northwest and north and remaining elevated in the
Cautionary possibly low end Small Craft range in its wake during
Thursday night through Saturday. Ample moisture ahead of the front
will support increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
over the waters late tonight through Thursday as the front moves
through the waters with a few strong to severe storms possible.

FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds
for the next few days with no Red Flag conditions expected. Late
in the week through the weekend cooler drier air moves in with
widespread critical relative humidity values expected on Sunday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  88  76  84  64 /  10  40  80  10
FMY  91  76  89  67 /  10  10  40  30
GIF  91  74  86  61 /  20  30  80  10
SRQ  85  74  83  64 /  10  30  70  10
BKV  88  69  82  54 /  20  50  70   0
SPG  84  75  80  66 /  10  40  80  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

Aviation...05/Carlisle
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