Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2022

Mesoscale Discussion 21

January 2, 202239 counties in Georgia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 2, 2022, 4:50 PM EST for 39 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 85 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 2, 2022, 4:50 PM EST (21:50 UTC)
Expired
Jan 2, 2022, 6:15 PM EST
In force
85 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 9
All 39 counties

Appling County, GA, Atkinson County, GA, Bacon County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brantley County, GA, Bryan County, GA, Bulloch County, GA, Candler County, GA, Clinch County, GA, Coffee County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Crisp County, GA, Dodge County, GA, Effingham County, GA, Emanuel County, GA, Evans County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Jeff Davis County, GA, Jenkins County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Laurens County, GA, Liberty County, GA, Long County, GA, Montgomery County, GA, Pierce County, GA, Screven County, GA, Tattnall County, GA, Telfair County, GA, Tift County, GA, Toombs County, GA, Treutlen County, GA, Turner County, GA, Ware County, GA, Wayne County, GA, Wheeler County, GA, Wilcox County, GA, Worth County, GA

The radar

The Robins AFB radar (KJGX), 118 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Jacksonville, FL (KJAX), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 175 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jacksonville, FL at 12:00Z on 2022-01-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 19 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jacksonville, FL at 12:00Z on 2022-01-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 260 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
19 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-713 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
715 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
260 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
264 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

977 
ACUS11 KWNS 022151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022150 
SCZ000-GAZ000-022315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0021
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CST Sun Jan 02 2022

Areas affected...South-Central/Southeast GA....Far Southwest SC

Concerning...Tornado Watch 9...

Valid 022150Z - 022315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 9 continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing storm cluster as well as the cells ahead of it
will continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and/or brief
tornadoes. This risk may extent past the edge of Tornado Watch 9 and
trends will be monitored for potential downstream watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing thunderstorm cluster in southwest GA continue
to move northeastward at 35-40 kt, with the cells out ahead of the
cluster exhibiting similar motion. Damaging wind gusts are the
primary risk, but a brief tornado is also possible. This storm
motion will likely bring the cells ahead of the cluster in Dodge and
Wilcox counties to the northeast edge of Tornado Watch 9 near 23Z.
The main cluster may move a bit slower, but could still reach the
east-central edge of Tornado Watch 9 in the 2300Z to 0000Z time
frame. 

The downstream air mass across southeast GA and adjacent far
southwest SC is split by an outflow boundary stretching from near
CHS southwestward to about 25 miles north of ABY. Mid 60s dewpoints
are in place on both sides of the boundary, but temperatures are in
the upper 60s/low 70s on north side and the low 80s on the south
side. As a result, buoyancy increases from north to south, with
MLCAPE near 500 J/kg near the GA/SC border to near 1000 J/kg over
southeast GA. Bulk vertical shear is strong throughout the region,
with low-level shear maximized across southeast GA. 

Given the current trends and this downstream environment, some
threat for additional severe may exist east of Tornado Watch 9,
particularly if the outflow boundary begins to move back northward
as a warm front. Convective trends will be monitored for potential
downstream watch issuance.

..Mosier/Grams.. 01/02/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   32628289 32828218 32848140 32638112 32078128 31338163
            30828227 30868302 31028423 31708404 32628289

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 1, 7:53 PM ESTTornado WatchSPCCatoosa, Chattooga, Dade, Fannin, Gilmer, Gordon and 6 more7 hr
Jan 1, 9:30 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCatoosa, Dade, Walker, Whitfield60 min
Jan 1, 11:07 PM ESTTornado WatchSPCBartow, Carroll, Cherokee, Cobb, Douglas, Floyd and 5 more6 hr
Jan 2, 12:19 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCatoosa, Chattooga, Dade, Floyd, Polk, Walker116 min
Jan 2, 3:19 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarroll, Haralson, Heard, Troup116 min
Jan 2, 1:53 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaker, Brooks, Calhoun, Clay, Colquitt, Cook and 23 more2 hr
Jan 2, 2:17 PM ESTTornado WatchSPCBaker, Ben Hill, Berrien, Bleckley, Brooks, Calhoun and 42 more9 hr
Jan 2, 3:48 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaker, Ben Hill, Berrien, Bleckley, Brooks, Calhoun and 32 more117 min
Jan 2, 5:01 PM ESTTornado WatchSPCAppling, Atkinson, Bacon, Brantley, Bryan, Bulloch and 20 more5 hr
Jan 2, 6:52 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppling, Atkinson, Bacon, Ben Hill, Berrien, Brantley and 32 more113 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2022Every mesoscale discussion in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.