Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Pueblo, CO

137 
WWUS85 KPUB 022147
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
247 PM MST Wed Mar 2 2022

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for 12 PM through 8 PM 
MST Thursday for gusty winds and low relative humidity for Fire 
Weather Zone 237 which includes Baca County...

...A Fire Weather Watch has been issued from Friday morning
through Friday evening for gusty winds and low relative humidity 
for Fire Weather Zones 228...229...230...233...236...and 237 
which includes Pueblo, Huerfano, Las Animas, Prowers, and Baca 
counties...

COZ237-031400-
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.A.0004.220304T1800Z-220305T0300Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0004.220303T1900Z-220304T0300Z/
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
247 PM MST Wed Mar 2 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST
THURSDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 237...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 237...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Fire Weather
Watch for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from Friday morning through Friday evening.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 237.

* Winds...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 5 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ228>230-233-236-031400-
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.A.0004.220304T1800Z-220305T0300Z/
Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Prowers County Including Lamar-
247 PM MST Wed Mar 2 2022

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 228...229...230...233 AND 236...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Fire Weather
Watch for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from Friday morning through Friday evening.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 228...229...230...233 and 
  236.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 11 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions may be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

826 
WWUS85 KPUB 031112
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
412 AM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 12 PM through 8 PM 
MST today for gusty winds and low relative humidity for Fire 
Weather Zones 233...235...236...and 237 which includes eastern 
Las Animas, Bent, Prowers, and Baca Counties...

...A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect from Friday morning 
through Friday evening for gusty winds and low relative humidity 
for Fire Weather Zones 226...227...228...229...230...231...232
...233...234...235...236...and 237 which includes all of the
southeast plains...

COZ233-236-040315-
/O.EXA.KPUB.FW.W.0004.220303T1900Z-220304T0300Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.A.0004.220304T1800Z-220305T0300Z/
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Prowers County Including Lamar-
412 AM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 233 AND 236... 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING 
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 233 AND 236...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in 
effect from noon today to 8 PM MST this evening.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 233 and 236.

* Winds...Today, south southeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35
  mph. Friday, southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 4 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions may be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ235-040315-
/O.EXA.KPUB.FW.W.0004.220303T1900Z-220304T0300Z/
/O.EXA.KPUB.FW.A.0004.220304T1800Z-220305T0300Z/
Bent County Including Las Animas-
412 AM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 235... 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 
FRIDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 235...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in 
effect from noon today to 8 PM MST this evening.

A Fire Weather Watch has also been issued. This Fire Weather 
Watch for gusty winds and low relative humidity is in effect from
Friday morning through Friday evening.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 235.

* Winds...Today, south southeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35
  mph. Friday,southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 5 percent.

* Temperatures...In the lower 60s.

* Impacts...Conditions may be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ237-040315-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0004.220303T1900Z-220304T0300Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.A.0004.220304T1800Z-220305T0300Z/
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
412 AM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST
THIS EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 237...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING 
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 237...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 237.

* Winds...Today, south southeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35
  mph. Friday, southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 4 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ226-227-231-232-234-040315-
/O.EXA.KPUB.FW.A.0004.220304T1800Z-220305T0300Z/
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Kiowa County Including Eads-
412 AM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 226...227...231...232 AND 
234...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Fire Weather
Watch for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in 
effect from Friday morning through Friday evening.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 226...227...231...232 and 
  234.

* Winds...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 11 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions may be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ228>230-040315-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.A.0004.220304T1800Z-220305T0300Z/
Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
412 AM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 228...229 AND 
230...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 228...229 and 230.

* Winds...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 10 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions may be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

580 
WWUS85 KPUB 031649
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URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
949 AM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 12 PM through 8 PM
MST today for gusty winds and low relative humidity for Fire
Weather Zones 233...235...236...and 237 which includes eastern
Las Animas, Bent, Prowers, and Baca Counties...

...A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect from Friday morning
through Friday evening for gusty winds and low relative humidity
for Fire Weather Zones 226 through 237, which includes all of the
southeast plains...

COZ233-235>237-040900-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0004.220303T1900Z-220304T0300Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.A.0004.220304T1800Z-220305T0300Z/
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Bent County Including Las Animas-Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
949 AM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 233 AND 236...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 233 AND 236...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 233...235...236 and 237.

* Winds...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 4 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions may be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ226>232-234-040900-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.A.0004.220304T1800Z-220305T0300Z/
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Kiowa County Including Eads-
949 AM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 226...227...231...
232 AND 234...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 226...227...228...229... 
  230...231...232 and 234.

* Winds...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 10 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions may be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

524 
WWUS85 KPUB 032149
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
249 PM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 8 PM MST this
evening for gusty winds and low relative humidity for Fire 
Weather Zones 233...235...236...and 237, which includes eastern 
Las Animas, Bent, Prowers, and Baca counties...

...A Red Flag Warning has been issued from 11 AM to 8 PM MST 
Friday for gusty winds and low relative humidity for Fire Weather 
Zones 226 through 237, which includes all of the southeast 
plains...

COZ233-235>237-041400-
/O.UPG.KPUB.FW.A.0004.220304T1800Z-220305T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0005.220304T1800Z-220305T0300Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220304T0300Z/
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Bent County Including Las Animas-Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
249 PM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
233...235...236 AND 237...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
233...235...236 AND 237...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Friday. The Fire Weather Watch is
no longer in effect.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 233...235...236 and 237.

* Winds...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 4 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ226>232-234-041400-
/O.UPG.KPUB.FW.A.0004.220304T1800Z-220305T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0005.220304T1800Z-220305T0300Z/
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Kiowa County Including Eads-
249 PM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
226...227...228...229...230...231...232 AND 234...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Friday. The Fire Weather Watch is
no longer in effect.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 226...227...228...229... 
  230...231...232 and 234.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 11 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

166 
WWUS85 KPUB 040253
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
753 PM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

...A Red Flag Warning expires at 8 PM MST this evening for Fire 
Weather Zones 233...235...236...and 237, which includes eastern 
Las Animas, Bent, Prowers, and Baca counties...

...A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Friday 
for gusty winds and low relative humidity for Fire Weather Zones 
226 through 237, which includes all of the southeast plains...

COZ233-235>237-041900-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220304T0300Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0005.220304T1800Z-220305T0300Z/
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Bent County Including Las Animas-Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
753 PM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 233... 235...236 AND 237... 
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 233...235...236 AND 237...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 233...235...236 and 237.

* Winds for Friday...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 
  mph.

* Relative Humidity Friday...As low as 4 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ226>232-234-041900-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0005.220304T1800Z-220305T0300Z/
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Kiowa County Including Eads-
753 PM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 226...227...228...229...230...231...232
AND 234...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 226...227...228...229... 
  230...231...232 and 234.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 11 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Hodanish

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
948 AM MST Wed Mar 2 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 AM MST Wed Mar 2 2022

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Baca County for tomorrow
afternoon. Extremely dry conditions and increasing winds,
especially during the afternoon, will become supportive of
critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 414 AM MST Wed Mar 2 2022

Key Messages:

1) Well above normal temperatures continue across southern Colorado
today, with record breaking max temps possible at COS and PUB.

2) Really low RH values of 5 to 10 percent are once again expected
over the plains this afternoon, though winds will remain on the
lighter side.

With another relatively mild start to the morning across southern
Colorado along with a building upper level ridge and mostly sunny
skies today, expect another day of well above normal temperatures.
No real big changes to the current high temps, only to make some
slight upward adjustments in places. With additional warming to the
air mass, expect temps in the mid to upper 70s over much of the
plains with low to mid 60s across the mountain valleys. In this
setup, do think some 80 degree temps are possible over portions of
the eastern plains, and did adjust the temps to reflect this
thinking. Additionally, the record high temps for COS and PUB will
be within reach today, see the Climate section below with this
information. ALS may be a few degrees under the record today, but
given recent trends, wouldn't be surprised to see ALS see slighter
higher temps than currently forecast. Similar to previous days,
really low RH values of 5 to 10 percent are expected over the plains
this afternoon. Setup still not favoring any stronger winds/gusts
though.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 414 AM MST Wed Mar 2 2022

Key messages:

1) A strong ridge will remain over the region through Thursday and
allow for max temperatures to be well above the seasonal average for
most locations, possibly record breaking for certain locations on
Thursday and Friday.

2) Fire weather conditions will be a concern for Thursday over the
southern and eastern plains, and spotty over the Palmer Divide,
ahead of the next trough as southerly winds become strong with low
relative humidity values, coupled with very warm temperatures. There
will also be fire weather concerns for Friday across many areas over
the plains, east of the I-25 corridor.

3) Strong downsloping westerly winds on Saturday after passage of a
trough will also result in critical fire weather conditions being
possible over many areas over the plains, east of the I-25 corridor,
although temperatures will be much cooler.

4) A broad longwave trough will move in over the region by Friday
and going into the early part of next week, which will allow for
several major shortwave troughs to impact southeast Colorado with
colder temperatures, snow, and gusty winds from Friday through
Monday.

Detailed discussion:

Thursday...

The ridge that is currently in place is going to further strengthen
by Thursday ahead of the longwave trough moving in by the end of the
week. The well amplified ridge will allow for temperatures to be
well above the seasonal average for most locations, especially by
Thursday. Temperatures at the 700mb level will be approaching close
to 10C for some locations over the plains, along with 1000-500mb
thickness values between 576dm and 578cm over much of the CWA, and
values approaching close to 579dm at the KS/OK tri-state point. Due
to this, it is likely that there will temperatures in the low 80s
over much of the the southeastern plains and Lower Arkansas River
Valley by Thursday. EPS and GEFS ensembles continue to show higher
values above the 75th percentile with max temperatures on Thursday,
and given the synoptic situation with a well-amplified ridge and
southerly flow with mixing at the 850mb, it is possible to see
record high temperatures on Thursday. An example would be the San
Luis Valley, where Alamosa could break their daily record max
temperature of 62 set in 2009, as their forecast high at this moment
looks to be around 65. The only component that could inhibit this
could be cloud coverage, although this appears to be more scattered
in nature now than earlier with the most recent NBM data. However,
given the dynamic processes in place, there is enough confidence to
have allowed the NBM temperatures to be adjusted up slightly with a
blend of BCONSALL and the NBM 90th percentile. Winds have also been
adjusted upwards with a NBM 90th percentile blend and the ADJMAV for
the afternoon on Thursday. Given the low RH values in place, along
with stronger and gusty southerly winds, critical fire weather
conditions could be possible for southern and eastern plains, as
well some spotty areas over the Palmer Divide. Confidence of the
winds at this time is not high with them being at criteria, however,
some of the model guidance does suggest that there could be winds at
or above criteria for several hours, especially for Baca County
between noon and 7pm.

Friday through Saturday...

As the trough continues to propagate eastward from the western CONUS
and the associated low begins to approach the region, all models
have continued to be in generally good agreement that the position
of the first low pressure center will eject out somewhere over
northeastern Colorado, although now the ECMWF shows it being even
further north along the Wyoming border. Depending on the position of
the low as it moves out over the plains will determine how much the
winds will be influenced over the plains. On Friday, they are
looking to become rather strong and gusty, and the downsloping
nature of them could possibly heat up areas of the plains well into
the 80s and even approaching close to 90 for the Lower Arkansas
River Valley, although this is in the 95th percentile of NBM and
therefore a low percentage of occurrence. Winds have also been
increased during the afternoon with a NBM 90th percentile blend and
the ADJMAV due to a dry slot and jet maxima located at the 500mb and
700mb level moving over the southern CWA during the afternoon on
Friday. Snow showers will begin over the San Juan Mountains by early
morning on Friday, and then spread out over the CWA by later in the
evening as the trough passes over. In terms of the plains, the wrap
around moisture will provide a much better chance of snow over the
Palmer Divide by early morning on Saturday, and only a slight chance
of snow over most of the plains from the Lower Arkansas River Valley
and southward, while the better chance of snow remains to the north
of the US-50. Most of the higher snowfall amounts will be confined
to the higher elevations though Saturday. Cold frontal passage will
bring much cooler high temperatures for Saturday and post-frontal
winds will become rather strong and gusty out of the west during the
afternoon, which would result in critical fire weather conditions
being possible again for many areas of the plains east of the I-25
corridor.

Sunday through Monday...

Models have tightened up a bit on the position of the upper level
closed low that is going to propagate just to the south of the CWA
on Sunday, following the passage of the first wave. The GFS and
ECMWF are a little more in sync with the position of the low being
over northern Arizona on the morning at 5am, while the Canadian has
this position being directly over the Four Corners area with a
slightly faster propagation. This will allow for more snow showers
to move over and a reinforcement of even colder air with a better
chance of snow for the plains as this will have more of an upsloping
wind component with it, as well as better isentropic upgliding. If
this follows the speed of the Canadian and moves out quicker, it
would allow for less in the way of snowfall totals over the region.
A third trough waiting in the heels will also transition down from
the north behind the trough exiting on Sunday and provide another
chance of snow yet again for Monday, mainly over the mountains by
this time as the position of the low is further to the west over
western Colorado. High temperatures will also remain cool and below
the seasonal average on Monday.

Tuesday...

High pressure will subsequently build in with a return to more
tranquil weather conditions, although remaining cool as the longwave
trough will still be in place overhead. Overall temperatures will
still be slightly below the seasonal average for this time of year.
-Stewey

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 414 AM MST Wed Mar 2 2022

VFR conditions, dry weather, and light winds are expected across all
of the TAF sites this period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 431 AM MST Tue Mar 1 2022

With a strong ridge of high pressure developing, record high
temperatures will be possible across southern Colorado today through
Friday. Below is a list of the record high daily temperatures, as
well as the forecasted high temperatures for Alamosa, Colorado
Springs, and Pueblo.

Record high temperature (year set), and forecast highs:

Alamosa:

March 2...record high: 66 (2009), forecast high for Wednesday: 63
March 3...record high: 62 (2009), forecast high for Thursday: 65
March 4...record high: 64 (2016), forecast high for Friday: 65

Colorado Springs:

March 2...record high: 72 (2009), forecast high for Wednesday: 72
March 3...record high: 71 (2009), forecast high for Thursday: 72
March 4...record high: 70 (2009), forecast high for Friday: 74

Pueblo:

March 2...record high: 80 (2009), forecast high for Wednesday: 79
March 3...record high: 77 (2009), forecast high for Thursday: 79
March 4...record high: 77 (2009), forecast high for Friday: 80

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MST Thursday for COZ237.

&&

UPDATE...SIMCOE
SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...STEWARD
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ
CLIMATE...RODRIGUEZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
448 AM MST Wed Mar 2 2022

COZ058>089-093>099-031200-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
448 AM MST Wed Mar 2 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Spotty near critical fire weather conditions are possible across the
plains this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

On Thursday, above normal temperatures with low relative humidity
values and gusty winds will result in critical fire weather
conditions over the southern and eastern plains, as well as spotty
conditions for the Palmer Divide. Critical fire weather
conditions will be likely over most of the plains east of the I-25
corridor for both Friday and Saturday.

Snow showers will begin over the Central Mountains on Friday
morning and spread eastward throughout the day. Some show showers
will occur over the Palmer Divide later in the evening. Snow
showers will continue throughout the weekend and into Monday with
some snow over the plains on Sunday and along the west of the I-25
corridor on Monday. Light snowfall totals will occur over the
plains and more moderate snowfall totals will occur over the
mountains from Friday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will not be needed today or tonight.

RODRIGUEZ/STEWARD