Alert archive / Colorado / Red Flag Warnings in 2022

Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Pueblo, CO

February 20, 20229 counties in Colorado

NWS Pueblo, CO issued this red flag warning at Feb 20, 2022, 3:03 PM MST for 9 counties in Colorado. It took effect at Feb 21, 2022, 10:00 AM MST. It was in force for 9 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 20, 2022, 3:03 PM MST (22:03 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 21, 2022, 10:00 AM MST
Expired
Feb 21, 2022, 7:00 PM MST
In force
9 hr
Issued by
NWS Pueblo, CO

Counties Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Crowley County, CO, El Paso County, CO, Huerfano County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Otero County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Pueblo County, CO

The radar

The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 219 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Denver, CO at 12:00Z on 2022-02-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Denver, CO at 12:00Z on 2022-02-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -3 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
3590 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-3 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-61 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

931 
WWUS85 KPUB 202203
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
303 PM MST Sun Feb 20 2022

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 6 PM today for 
gusty winds and low relative humidity values for fire weather 
zones 227...228...229 and 230 which includes southern El Paso, 
Pueblo, Huerfano, and western Las Animas Counties...

...A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Monday from 10 AM
through 7 PM for gusty winds and low relative humidity for Fire 
Weather Zones 228...229...230...232...233...and 235 through 237 
which includes Pueblo, Huerfano, Las Animas, Otero, Bent, Prowers 
and Baca Counties...

COZ228>230-211415-
/O.UPG.KPUB.FW.A.0003.220221T1700Z-220222T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0003.220221T1700Z-220222T0200Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220221T0100Z/
Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
303 PM MST Sun Feb 20 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 228...229 AND 230... 
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MST MONDAY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 228...229 AND 230...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity values, which 
is in effect from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Monday. The Fire Weather Watch
is no longer in effect.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 228...229 and 230.

* Winds...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 4 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ232-233-235>237-211415-
/O.UPG.KPUB.FW.A.0003.220221T1700Z-220222T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0003.220221T1700Z-220222T0200Z/
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Bent County Including Las Animas-Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
303 PM MST Sun Feb 20 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MST MONDAY FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 232...233...235... 236 AND 237...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity values, which 
is in effect from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Monday. The Fire Weather Watch
is no longer in effect.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 232...233...235...236 and 
  237.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 9 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ227-210100-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220221T0100Z/
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-
303 PM MST Sun Feb 20 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 227...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 227.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 6 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
6 follow-up statements
673 
WWUS85 KPUB 210045
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
545 PM MST Sun Feb 20 2022

...The Red Flag Warning will expire at 6 PM today for gusty winds
and low relative humidity values for fire weather zones 
227...228...229 and 230 which includes southern El Paso, Pueblo, 
Huerfano, and western Las Animas Counties...

...A Red Flag Warning has been issued for 10 AM through 7 PM
Monday for gusty winds and low relative humidity for Fire Weather
Zones 227...228...229...230...231...232...233...and 235 through 
237 which includes Southern El Paso, Pueblo, Huerfano, Las 
Animas, Crowley, Otero, Bent, Prowers, and Baca Counties...

COZ228>230-211645-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220221T0100Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0003.220221T1700Z-220222T0200Z/
Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
545 PM MST Sun Feb 20 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MST
MONDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 228...229 AND 230...
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
228...229 AND 230...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 228...229 and 230.

* Winds...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 5 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread again Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ227-211645-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220221T0100Z/
/O.EXA.KPUB.FW.W.0003.220221T1700Z-220222T0200Z/
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-
545 PM MST Sun Feb 20 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MST MONDAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 227...
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 227...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Monday.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 227.

* Winds...West 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 4 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread again Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ231-211645-
/O.EXA.KPUB.FW.W.0003.220221T1700Z-220222T0200Z/
Crowley County Including Ordway-
545 PM MST Sun Feb 20 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MST MONDAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 231...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Monday.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 231.

* Winds...Southwest 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 11 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread on Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ232-233-235>237-211645-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0003.220221T1700Z-220222T0200Z/
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Bent County Including Las Animas-Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
545 PM MST Sun Feb 20 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MST
MONDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 232...233...235...236 AND 237...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 232...233...235...236 and 
  237.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 9 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread on Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
285 
WWUS85 KPUB 210105
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
605 PM MST Sun Feb 20 2022

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for 10 AM through 7 PM 
Monday for gusty winds and low relative humidity for Fire Weather 
Zones 227...228...229...230...231...232...233...and 235 through 
237 which includes Southern El Paso, Pueblo, Huerfano, Las Animas,
Crowley, Otero, Bent, Prowers, and Baca Counties...

COZ227>233-235>237-211715-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0003.220221T1700Z-220222T0200Z/
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Bent County Including Las Animas-Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
605 PM MST Sun Feb 20 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MST
MONDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 227...228...229...230...231...232...233...235...236 AND
237...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 227...228...229...230... 
  231...232...233...235...236 and 237.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 9 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread on Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
746 
WWUS85 KPUB 211041
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
341 AM MST Mon Feb 21 2022

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 10 AM through 7 PM 
Today for gusty winds and low relative humidity for Fire Weather 
Zones 227...228...229...230...231...232...233...and 235 through 
237 which includes Southern El Paso, Pueblo, Huerfano, Las Animas,
Crowley, Otero, Bent, Prowers, and Baca Counties...

COZ227>233-235>237-220200-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0003.220221T1700Z-220222T0200Z/
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Bent County Including Las Animas-Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
341 AM MST Mon Feb 21 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 
227...228...229...230...231...232...233...235... 236 AND 237...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 227...228...229...230... 
  231...232...233...235...236 and 237.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 9 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread on Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
136 
WWUS85 KPUB 212120
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
220 PM MST Mon Feb 21 2022

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 7 PM Today for 
gusty winds and low relative humidity for Fire Weather Zones 
227...228...229...230...231...232...233...and 235 through 237 
which includes Southern El Paso, Pueblo, Huerfano, Las Animas, 
Crowley, Otero, Bent, Prowers, and Baca Counties...

COZ227>233-235>237-220200-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220222T0200Z/
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Bent County Including Las Animas-Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
220 PM MST Mon Feb 21 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 227...228...229...230...231...232...233...
235...236 AND 237...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 227...228...229...230... 
  231...232...233...235...236 and 237.

* Winds...West southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 8 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
756 
WWUS85 KPUB 220039
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
539 PM MST Mon Feb 21 2022

...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 7 PM Today for
gusty winds and low relative humidity for Fire Weather Zones
229...230...233 Huerfano and Las Animas Counties...

COZ227-228-231-232-235>237-220145-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220222T0200Z/
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Bent County Including Las Animas-Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
539 PM MST Mon Feb 21 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 227...
228...231...232...235...236 AND 237...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has cancelled the Red Flag
Warning.

Passing cold front has allow for temperatures to drop and humidity
levels to rise, with critical fire weather conditions no longer 
expected. 

$$

COZ229-230-233-220200-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220222T0200Z/
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
539 PM MST Mon Feb 21 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 229...230 and 233...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 229...230 and 233.

* Winds...West 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 7 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
618 
WWUS85 KPUB 220156
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
656 PM MST Mon Feb 21 2022

...Red Flag Warning allowed to expire at 7 pm...

COZ229-230-233-220300-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220222T0200Z/
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
656 PM MST Mon Feb 21 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR  
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 229...230 AND 233...

A cold front has pushed through Las Animas County and into Huerfano
County, allowing for temperatures to cool and humidity levels to 
rise. With critical fire weather conditions no longer anticipated,
the Red Flag Warning will be allowed to expire at 7 pm mst. 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Feb 20, 11:19 AM MST, 3 hours 44 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 20, 11:19 AM MST, 3 hours 44 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1119 AM MST Sun Feb 20 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1103 AM MST Sun Feb 20 2022

No real big changes to the forecast for today, other than to raise
high temps a degree or two in a couple of locations as well as to
lower dewpoints along the I-25 corridor. With temps quickly
increasing this morning, still anticipate many locations to rise
well into the 60s. This warmth coupled with dewpoints near or
below zero along the I-25 corridor are supporting RH values of
5-10 percent. The gusty winds which have been in place in this
location today are still expected to expand, with the current Red
Flag Warning still on track today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 405 AM MST Sun Feb 20 2022

Key Messages...

1) Critical Fire Weather conditions likely today along the I-25
corridor from Colorado Springs to the NM border.

Currently...

Strong wly gap-flow winds blowing through the Arkansas Valley and La
Veta Pass down to Walsenburg, with some gusts 30-40 kts noted at
both locations. Less windy elsewhere, though still some occasional
downslope gusts to 30 kts over and near most ern mt slopes.

Today, main concern is fire weather, as lee surface trough deepens
and shifts eastward across the plains this afternoon. RH already
near 15 percent in spots where winds have been the strongest this
morning, so air mass should be dry enough to reach critical
thresholds at many lower elevation locations this afternoon.
Forecast winds look somewhat erratic through the day, though general
message of most models is periods of strong/gusty winds will
continue through La Veta Pass downstream to Walsenburg, and through
the Arkansas Valley from Canon City east to Pueblo. HRRR suggests
winds may diminish around the city of Pueblo after 18z, as band of
stronger winds shifts northward into El Paso County, though wrn/srn
edges of Pueblo County may remain windy. Bottom line is current Red
Flag Warning will be kept for the srn I-25 corridor, with a
northward expansion into srn El Paso County where winds will
increase mid-late afternoon. Could see some spotty near critical
conditons elsewhere, but stronger winds currently look to remain
erratic enough to preclude highlights. Wly downslope and 700 mb
thermal ridge over the plains will lead to very warm max temps along
and east of the mountains, and a few 70 degf readings will appear on
the plains in the afternoon. Tonight, winds die off somewhat in the
evening, though still some downslope breezy/wind conditions possible
over ern mt slopes as wly mid level flow continues to increase.
Fairly mild min temps expected at most locations due to
winds/mixing, warmest along/west of I-25.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 405 AM MST Sun Feb 20 2022

Key Messages:

1) Critical Fire Weather conditions will likely materialize across
parts of the southern I25 corridor and eastern plains Monday
afternoon.

2) Winter weather arrives during the week, with multiple systems
bringing chances of snow to the forecast area, especially Wednesday
into Thursday morning.

3) Frigid temperatures will overspread much of the forecast area
during the week, as cold air spills in behind an Arctic cold front.

Monday... Staring off the long term period, a trough will begin
digging to the west of Colorado and pushing eastward during the day.
As this feature begins approaching the southern Colorado region, mid
and upper level winds will increase, and in response to that,
synoptic divergence will also increase. This increase in divergence
will aid in the development of a surface lee cyclone across the
eastern plains during the afternoon. As the lee cyclone develops and
meanders to the southeast during the day, the pressure gradient
force (PGF) along the western and southern edges of this feature
will tighten and allow for stronger surface winds to materialize.
This tighter PGF will be along the southern I25 corridor and
southern plains, along the Colorado and New Mexico border. These
stronger surface winds will aid in better downward mixing of drier
air aloft to the surface, leading to lower relative humidity (RH)
values given the warm daytime temperatures. With the stronger winds
and lower moisture content, fire weather conditions will likely
develop in the aforementioned areas where the tighter PGF will set
up. Heading into the overnight hours, the previously mentioned
trough will still be pushing over the region. This will continue to
allow for more robust mid and upper level winds to stream over the
area, and induce better orographic forcing over the higher terrain.
Mid and upper level moisture content will also begin increasing as
the trough moves overhead. With the better moisture aloft and more
focused orographics, stratiform snow is expected to develop along
the Continental Divide late during the overnight hours. At the
surface, an Arctic cold front will race southward late during the
evening; temperatures behind this front will plummet, and frigid
temperatures are expected during the week. As this takes place, the
lee cyclone will be pushed out the area and fire weather conditions
will no longer be an issue as RH rises behind the front. Winds
behind this front will likely develop an easterly component,
especially along and west of the I25 corridor. These surface wind
will aid in the development of weak surface upsloping. Given the
orographics from the upper level winds and modest surface upsloping,
isolated to scattered pockets of stratiform snow are likely along
the eastern mountains overnight.

Tuesday - Saturday... The rest of the long term period stays active
weather wise across southern Colorado. The GEFS and EPS models are
in strong agreement about this active pattern, which increases
confidence in the overall forecast. As the first wave leaves the
area early Tuesday, the rest of the day Tuesday is left in strong
westerly flow aloft. This strong flow aloft will allow for
orographic forcing to maintain a presence, especially over the
central and western mountains. Given this, light stratiform snow
will likely remain present over those areas during the day Tuesday.
Weak surface easterly winds will also still be present, and will
help to maintain modest surface upsloping along the eastern
mountains, where more isolated pockets of light stratiform snow are
likely. Heading into Wednesday, a larger and more robust trough is
expected to begin digging southward across Colorado. As this takes
place, synoptic level support and dynamics will increase over the
region. Given the slow nature of this system, and the better
dynamics in place, snow is expected to become more widespread and
intense over the forecast area, especially for the mountains.
Continuing into Thursday, the system from Wednesday will begin
exiting the Colorado region during the day. Precipitation will
slowly decrease in coverage and intensity as the better synoptic
support pushes eastward. Scattered pockets of light precipitation
will likely still be present during the day Thursday though, as
another system starts to approach the area (for those counting at
home, that's three storm systems in one week!). This next system
will begin to dig southward across southern Colorado during the day
Friday. As this feature passes over the area, again, synoptic
support and dynamics will increase. The difference with this system
is that it may be more moisture starved coming in so quickly behind
the other systems. Regardless though, the increased synoptics will
aid in the development of isolated pockets of light precipitation
along the mountains, especially the central and western mountains.
This third wave will start to race out of the forecast area during
the day Saturday, and a more ridge like pattern begins to develop.
As this take place, any lingering precipitation will dissipate
during the day Saturday, before drying out late in the evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1103 AM MST Sun Feb 20 2022

VFR conditions with dry weather are expected across the TAF sites
this period. High clouds in place over COS will depart early this
afternoon, though anticipate returning high clouds over all of
the sites later this evening. Gusty winds still expected at all
sites this afternoon. PUB currently the only location noting these
stronger winds, and still anticipate the lighter winds at COS and
ALS to increase over the next couple of hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for COZ228>230-232-233-235>237.

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ227>230.

&&

UPDATE...RODRIGUEZ
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 20, 4:47 AM MST, 10 hours 16 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
447 AM MST Sun Feb 20 2022

COZ058>089-093>099-211200-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
447 AM MST Sun Feb 20 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Critical fire weather conditions are likely from late morning into
early evening today along the I-25 corridor from Colorado Springs
south to the New Mexico border, where winds will gust over 25 mph
and relative humidity will fall below 15 percent.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Critical Fire weather conditions are likely Monday afternoon along
the southern I25 corridor and eastern plains, as low humidity and
strong winds overspread the area.

Beginning late Monday, an Arctic airmass will start to overspread
the area. This will bring frigid temperatures to southern Colorado.
This will also bring multiple chances for accumulating snow across
southern Colorado. The first will likely be light snow Monday night
and through Tuesday. Then another chance of more widespread and
heavier snow is likely late Tuesday into early Thursday. The last
chance for wintry weather will be Friday into Saturday, when another
shot of light snow is possible across the mountains. The highest
snowfall totals will be along the mountains, where several feet of
snow will be possible.

Frigid temperatures will also overspread much of the forecast area
during the week behind the cold front. Temperatures will likely be
25 to 35°F below seasonal averages. Wind chills will also be
bitterly cold, likely well be 0°F for most of the forecast area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will not be needed today or tonight.

10/SIMCOE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Pueblo, CO issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 19, 9:04 PM MSTRed Flag WarningPUBEl Paso, Huerfano, Las Animas, Pueblo21 hr
Feb 20, 4:11 AM MSTFire Weather WatchPUBBaca, Bent, Huerfano, Las Animas, Otero, Prowers and 1 more11 hr
Feb 20, 2:55 PM MSTWinter Storm WatchPUBChaffee, Conejos, Lake, Mineral, Rio Grande, Saguache7 hr

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in Colorado, 2022Every red flag warning in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.