Flood Watch 5, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

New Castle County, DE, Atlantic County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Chester County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA

894 
WGUS61 KPHI 051929
FFAPHI

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
329 PM EDT Mon Sep 5 2022

DEZ001-NJZ012>020-026-027-PAZ070-071-101-102-104-106-060730-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.A.0005.220906T0900Z-220907T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New Castle-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Glassboro, Wharton State Forest, 
Morrisville, Wilmington, Camden, Mount Holly, Norristown, Oxford, 
Pennsville, Doylestown, Lansdale, Cherry Hill, Sandy Hook, New 
Brunswick, Freehold, West Chester, Long Beach Island, Trenton, 
Philadelphia, Media, Jackson, Kennett Square, Honey Brook, and 
Moorestown
329 PM EDT Mon Sep 5 2022

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Delaware...New Jersey...and southeast 
  Pennsylvania...including the following areas...in northern 
  Delaware...New Castle. In New Jersey...Camden, Coastal Ocean, 
  Eastern Monmouth, Gloucester, Mercer, Middlesex, Northwestern 
  Burlington, Ocean, Salem, Southeastern Burlington, and Western 
  Monmouth. In southeast Pennsylvania...Delaware, Eastern Chester, 
  Eastern Montgomery, Lower Bucks, Philadelphia, and Western Chester.

* WHEN...From late tonight through Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Heavy rain and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop
    across the watch area from early Tuesday morning and
    persisting into Tuesday afternoon and evening. Rainfall rates
    of 1 to 2 inches per hour on dry ground may initially enhance
    runoff leading to flash flooding of urbanized and low lying
    areas.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NJZ009-010-PAZ103-105-060730-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.A.0005.220906T0900Z-220907T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hunterdon-Somerset-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Somerville, Flemington, Pottstown, 
Collegeville, Chalfont, and Perkasie
329 PM EDT Mon Sep 5 2022

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of New Jersey...and southeast Pennsylvania...
  including the following areas...in New Jersey...Hunterdon and 
  Somerset. In southeast Pennsylvania...Upper Bucks and Western 
  Montgomery.

* WHEN...From late tonight through Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Heavy rain and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop
    across the watch area from early Tuesday morning and
    persisting into Tuesday afternoon and evening. Rainfall rates
    of 1 to 2 inches per hour on dry ground may initially enhance
    runoff leading to flash flooding of urbanized and low lying
    areas.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

$$

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-060730-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.A.0005.220905T2100Z-220906T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Including the cities of Bethlehem, Morristown, Washington, 
Stroudsburg, Easton, Jim Thorpe, Allentown, Newton, and Reading
329 PM EDT Mon Sep 5 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern New Jersey...and Pennsylvania...
  including the following counties...in northern New Jersey...
  Morris, Sussex, and Warren. In Pennsylvania...Berks, Carbon, 
  Lehigh, Monroe, and Northampton.

* WHEN...Through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Heavy rain and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop
    across the watch area from early Tuesday morning and
    persisting into Tuesday afternoon and evening. Rainfall rates
    of 1 to 2 inches per hour on dry ground may initially enhance
    runoff leading to flash flooding of urbanized and low lying
    areas.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

BAH

139 
WGUS61 KPHI 060654
FFAPHI

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
254 AM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022

NJZ021>025-061900-
/O.EXB.KPHI.FA.A.0005.220906T1100Z-220907T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal
Atlantic-
Including the cities of Hammonton, Atlantic City, Ocean City, 
Millville, and Cape May Court House
254 AM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...A portion of southern New Jersey...including the following 
  areas...Atlantic, Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Cape May, Coastal 
  Atlantic, and Cumberland.

* WHEN...From 7 AM EDT this morning through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Heavy rain and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop
    across the watch area this morning and persist into the
    afternoon and evening. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per
    hour on dry ground may initially enhance runoff leading to
    flooding of urbanized and low lying areas.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-061600-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-220906T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Including the cities of Easton, Newton, Stroudsburg, Reading, 
Bethlehem, Morristown, Allentown, Washington, and Jim Thorpe
254 AM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern New Jersey...and Pennsylvania...
  including the following counties...in northern New Jersey...
  Morris, Sussex, and Warren. In Pennsylvania...Berks, Carbon, 
  Lehigh, Monroe, and Northampton.

* WHEN...Until Noon EDT today.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Heavy rain and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop
    across the watch area starting early this morning  Rainfall
    rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour on dry ground may initially
    enhance runoff leading to flooding of urbanized and low lying
    areas.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

$$

DEZ001-NJZ009-010-012>020-026-027-PAZ070-071-101>106-061900-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.A.0005.220906T0900Z-220907T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New Castle-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern
Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-
Ocean-Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern
Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Somerville, West Chester, 
Pennsville, Wharton State Forest, Jackson, New Brunswick, Trenton, 
Norristown, Doylestown, Long Beach Island, Chalfont, Morrisville, 
Honey Brook, Cherry Hill, Freehold, Pottstown, Glassboro, 
Collegeville, Philadelphia, Perkasie, Kennett Square, Mount Holly, 
Camden, Lansdale, Oxford, Moorestown, Flemington, Media, and Sandy 
Hook
254 AM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Delaware...New Jersey...and southeast 
  Pennsylvania...including the following areas...in northern 
  Delaware...New Castle. In New Jersey...Camden, Coastal Ocean, 
  Eastern Monmouth, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, 
  Northwestern Burlington, Ocean, Salem, Somerset, Southeastern 
  Burlington, and Western Monmouth. In southeast Pennsylvania...
  Delaware, Eastern Chester, Eastern Montgomery, Lower Bucks, 
  Philadelphia, Upper Bucks, Western Chester, and Western Montgomery.

* WHEN...Through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Heavy rain and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop
    across the watch area this morning and persist into the
    afternoon and evening. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per
    hour on dry ground may initially enhance runoff leading to
    flooding of urbanized and low lying areas.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

$$

Hoeflich

301 
WGUS61 KPHI 061548
FFAPHI

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1148 AM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-061700-
/O.EXP.KPHI.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-220906T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Including the cities of Washington, Reading, Allentown, Easton, Jim 
Thorpe, Bethlehem, Stroudsburg, Morristown, and Newton
1148 AM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022

...FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT NOON EDT TODAY...

The Flood Watch will expire for portions of northern New Jersey...
and Pennsylvania...including the following counties...in northern 
New Jersey...Morris, Sussex, and Warren. In Pennsylvania...Berks, 
Carbon, Lehigh, Monroe, and Northampton.

The widespread heavy rain and flooding threat has ended. Therefore, 
the Flood Watch will expire at Noon EDT today.

$$

DEZ001-NJZ009-010-012>020-026-027-PAZ070-071-101>106-070000-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-220907T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New Castle-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern
Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-
Ocean-Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern
Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Kennett Square, New Brunswick, Glassboro, 
Freehold, Doylestown, Moorestown, Long Beach Island, Wharton State 
Forest, Jackson, Mount Holly, Cherry Hill, Norristown, Media, 
Perkasie, Honey Brook, Lansdale, Oxford, Somerville, Wilmington, 
Trenton, Camden, West Chester, Pennsville, Collegeville, Chalfont, 
Morrisville, Flemington, Pottstown, Philadelphia, and Sandy Hook
1148 AM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Delaware...New Jersey...and southeast 
  Pennsylvania...including the following areas...in northern 
  Delaware...New Castle. In New Jersey...Camden, Coastal Ocean, 
  Eastern Monmouth, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, 
  Northwestern Burlington, Ocean, Salem, Somerset, Southeastern 
  Burlington, and Western Monmouth. In southeast Pennsylvania...
  Delaware, Eastern Chester, Eastern Montgomery, Lower Bucks, 
  Philadelphia, Upper Bucks, Western Chester, and Western Montgomery.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Storm drains 
  and ditches may become clogged with debris.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Heavy rain across the watch area will persist into the
    afternoon. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour may lead
    to flooding of urbanized and low lying areas.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NJZ021>025-070000-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-220907T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal
Atlantic-
Including the cities of Hammonton, Atlantic City, Cape May Court 
House, Millville, and Ocean City
1148 AM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be 
  possible.

* WHERE...A portion of southern New Jersey...including the following 
  areas...Atlantic, Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Cape May, Coastal 
  Atlantic, and Cumberland.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, 
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. 
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Heavy rain and a few thunderstorms will persist into the
    afternoon. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour may lead
    to flooding of urbanized and low lying areas.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood 
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared 
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

Gorse

880 
WGUS61 KPHI 061736
FFAPHI

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
136 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022

DEZ001-NJZ009-010-012>027-PAZ070-071-101>106-061845-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-220907T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New Castle-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern
Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-
Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal
Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern
Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Kennett Square, New Brunswick, Glassboro, 
Freehold, Doylestown, Moorestown, Millville, Long Beach Island, 
Wharton State Forest, Jackson, Cape May Court House, Mount Holly, 
Cherry Hill, Norristown, Media, Perkasie, Atlantic City, Honey 
Brook, Lansdale, Oxford, Somerville, Wilmington, Trenton, Camden, 
West Chester, Pennsville, Collegeville, Ocean City, Chalfont, 
Morrisville, Hammonton, Flemington, Pottstown, Philadelphia, and 
Sandy Hook
136 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch is cancelled for portions of northern Delaware...New 
Jersey...and southeast Pennsylvania...including the following 
areas...in northern Delaware...New Castle. In New Jersey...Atlantic, 
Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Camden, Cape May, Coastal Atlantic, 
Coastal Ocean, Cumberland, Eastern Monmouth, Gloucester, Hunterdon, 
Mercer, Middlesex, Northwestern Burlington, Ocean, Salem, Somerset, 
Southeastern Burlington, and Western Monmouth. In southeast 
Pennsylvania...Delaware, Eastern Chester, Eastern Montgomery, Lower 
Bucks, Philadelphia, Upper Bucks, Western Chester, and Western 
Montgomery.

The widespread moderate to heavy rain has ended and the lingering 
showers are not expected to cause any additional flooding that would 
pose a threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

$$

Gorse

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
137 AM EDT Mon Sep 5 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will pass from southeastern Canada toward the
Canadian Maritimes through Monday. A slow moving frontal
boundary will push across the area through Tuesday with several
disturbances resulting in an extended period of unsettled and
wet conditions through the beginning of the week. A stronger
front will push into the area Wednesday night with high pressure
settling in its wake bringing drier conditions toward the end
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Complicated weather setup tonight as we have a cold front right
on our doorstep to the northwest with upper level ridging off
the east coast as well as over the inter-mountain west. In
between, there is a weakness in the mid and upper level height
field near the ArkLaTex region. Pieces of upper level energy are
breaking away from this and moving northeast towards the area
in the upper level flow. In addition, the SW flow is streaming
moisture northeastward towards the area. The upshot of all this
is that we've seen some showers and storms develop near and
south of the nearby cold front and some of these have been
affecting the southern Poconos and northern NJ. Storms continue
to gradually move north, with some pockets of heavy rain mixed
in. In areas where rain has moved out, some low stratus has
developed, which could temporarily reduce visibilities through
the morning hours.

For the rest of the area, a quiet night continues as we get into
Labor Day. High clouds continue to stream through, and this has
resulted in limited cooling ongoing. Adjusted hourly
temperatures a bit to reflect the elevated temperatures seen in
the observations. Fog/low stratus developed should remain
limited as dewpoint depressions are still quite wide for this
time of night. Temperatures will get down into the mid 60s/low
70s this morning.

Into Monday, a trough to our north over Canada will slowly
slide east and flatten the upper ridge near the east coast. The
surface cold front will keep slowly pushing its way in from the
west. Lobes of vorticity will continue to stream through the
upper pattern and provide shower and thunderstorm chances for
the first half of the day. In the absence of strong surface
forcing, current thinking is that overall coverage for the first
half of the day will be scattered and confined to the far
northwest portions of the area; further southwest, dry air near
and at the surface will take time to saturate through the
afternoon. Any showers and storms that do affect the area will
have plenty of moisture to work with as PWATs increase to near 2
inches. High temperatures will be largely dependent on where
the rain/thickest cloud cover sets up as locations in the
Poconos may only reach the low-mid 70s while I-95 and south sees
the mid 80s.

For Monday evening, some much needed widespread rain looks
likely to overspread the area. Coverage should begin to expand
as the trough axis and front push closer thus stronger forcing
for ascent exists. Rounds of precipitation will slowly progress
south and east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models continue to show changes to the details in the evolution
of the synoptic flow, which has made for an uptick in forecast
rainfall across the region Monday night through Wednesday.

The synoptic scale flow Monday looks rather similar compared to
yesterdays global guidance with mid-level ridging forecast to be
centered over UT, with a mid-level weakness across MO and the
ArkLaTex. Towards southeastern Ontario and Quebec a mid-level
shortwave will be slowly diving southeast with packets of PVA
continuing to streak east ahead of the approaching wave axis
(originating from the weakness over the ArkLaTex). In the upper
levels of the atmosphere, a strengthening 80 kt jet streak will
form on the diffluent side of the trough axis helping to
provide more than sufficient lift across the region. The sub-
tropical jet is also forecast to strengthen across WV and
southeastern PA. This will allow for some coupled forced ascent
from the two jet streaks (RRQ and LFQ) across eastern PA and
northern NJ. Most of the precipitation Monday night into Tuesday
morning, at least initially, will be northwest of I-95 and
north of I-195. PWATs ahead of the wave are also forecast to
rise to near 2.00" (or around the 95th percentile for this time
of year). Taking a look at the propagation and advection vectors
for storm motion, reveals a LLJ that is close to matching the
cloud bearing mean wind with resultant storm motion around 5 to
10 kts at times. This coupled with an increasing upper level jet
streak, rounds of PVA, and an approaching stronger cold front
all leads to the increasing potential for heavy rainfall Monday
night/ Tuesday morning.

Late Monday night into early Tuesday morning, models are now
indicating that a more substantial piece of PV will break off
from the collapsing low over the ArkLaTex out in front of the
approaching wave from Ontario/ Quebec. As this occurs, the best
forcing for ascent will slowly start to ooze south with the
showers following suite.

By Tuesday morning, the more substantial piece of PV will be
located near central PA, with surface cyclogenesis occurring on
the lee side of the Appalachian Mountains. This will drag a
thermal boundary south helping to focus the rain towards
southeastern PA and central NJ. Given the environmental
conditions, hourly rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches per hour
will be possible where convection trains. WPC has kept the Day 2
Excessive Rainfall Outlook as is, with a slight risk extending
to the I-95 corridor. The current rainfall forecast has
increased to 1.5 to 2.5" with localized amounts above 3". At
least some isolated flooding is anticipated in the region late
Monday through Tuesday, but the confidence in the exact
evolution and placement is too low to issue a Flood Watch at
this time. A Flood Watch might be required with subsequent
forecast packages.

During the day Tuesday, precipitation will be ongoing at daybreak
and likely continue through much of the day as the wave axis
approaches. Latest guidance has the area of low pressure
strengthening with a seasonably strong LLJ forming on the
northern flank. As this occurs, precipitation will pickup in
intensity and increase in easterly speed into the LLJ. Multiple
rounds of precipitation are expected if this setup does indeed
come to pass. The batch of precipitation is forecast to be
further south (close to I-195) and closer to the major
population centers of the I-95 corridor. A Flood Watch might be
required here. Expect high temperatures mostly in the mid 70s
along with east to northeast winds 5-10 mph increasing to 10 to
15 mph by Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday night, the stronger cold front front that was near the
Canadian/ United States border will collapse south towards the
low pressure will precipitation continuing. Expect low
temperatures in the mid 60s Wednesday morning. Latest guidance,
now has the surface low meandering off the coast of NJ Wednesday
with precipitation forecast to continue through the day. Expect
high temperatures in the low to mid 70s Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure builds overhead with mid-level ridging
nudging north across the Mid-Atlantic Thursday through Saturday.
The next system to impact the area with showers moves into the
region Sunday or Monday. Peak afternoon temperatures will rise
a few degrees each day with readings in the mid to upper 80s by
Saturday and Sunday, but cooler in the mountains and at the
beaches.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight... Mainly VFR. Showers could get near KRDG and KABE
later this morning, though any restrictions will be temporary.
For the rest of the terminals, expect VFR conditions. Moderate
confidence in stratus development being limited, so have elected
to leave out of the TAFs.

Monday...Mainly VFR in the morning. Steady rain and
embedded thunderstorm coverage and intensity will increase
after 19z, especially for KRDG and KABE where restrictions are
likely. Terminals at I-95 and south will see likely restrictions
beginning at or around 00z Tuesday as activity reaches the I-95
corridor. Restrictions to MVFR are likely. Southerly winds 5-10
knots. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night...Steady rain and embedded thunderstorms will
begin to impact the I-95 terminals after 00Z. MVFR conditions,
and eventually IFR conditions are likely as ceilings lower
overnight as showers and embedded thunderstorms move through.
Winds south to southeasterly around 5-10 kts will diminish to 5
kts or less after 00Z. The winds will be more easterly for RDG
and ABE. Moderate confidence in prevailing MVFR and IFR
conditions developing.

Tuesday...Showers likely continuing through much of the day
along with prevailing MVFR to IFR conditions. Ceilings may lift
to VFR at times. East to northeast winds around 5 to 10 kts.
Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night...MVFR to IFR ceilings likely with diminishing rain
chances. Winds northeast at 5-10 kts. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday...MVFR to IFR ceilings likely early, then gradually
lifting and scattering out after 18Z. Northeast winds around 10-15
kts. Moderate confidence.

Thursday and Friday...Mostly VFR. Winds east to northeast
around 5-10 kts. Moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight... No marine headlines expected. Fair weather. Southerly
winds 10-15 knots. Seas 2-3 feet.

Monday... No marine headlines expected. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible, especially in the evening. Southerly winds
5-10 knots. Seas 2-3 feet.

Outlook...

Monday night...No marine headlines are expected. Southerly
winds around 5-10 kts and seas around 2 feet. Fair weather
early, but scattered showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
are likely to develop late Monday night.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...No marine headlines are expected.
Winds will shift to the east then northeast and increase to 10-15
kts. Gusts up to 20 kts late. Seas 2-4 feet. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain are likely to continue on Tuesday then
diminishing overnight.

Wednesday...Advisory conditions possible. Northeast winds increasing
to 15-20 kts early with gusts up to 30 kts and seas 4-6 feet.
The winds and seas will slowly diminish overnight. Isolated
showers possible.

Thursday and Friday...Advisory conditions are possible.
Northeast to east winds 10-15 kts with seas 5-6 feet.

Rip Currents...

For Monday, winds will be south to southeast around 10 mph with
breaking waves around 1 to 2 feet with a medium period swell. This
should result in a continuing LOW risk for the development of rip
currents. For Tuesday, there will likely be a slight uptick in both
the wave heights and the S/SE winds but the rip risk still looks to
remain LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Haines/MPS/Staarmann
NEAR TERM...Brudy/Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich
SHORT TERM...Haines/Staarmann
LONG TERM...Franklin/Staarmann
AVIATION...Brudy/Fitzsimmons/Franklin/Haines/Hoeflich/Staarmann
MARINE...Brudy/Fitzsimmons/Franklin/Haines/Hoeflich/Staarmann

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
325 PM EDT Sun Sep 4 2022

NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-051930-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Carbon-
Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
325 PM EDT Sun Sep 4 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern
New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania,
northeast Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a slight risk for excessive rainfall Monday into Monday
night. Visit www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=phi for additional
information

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ013-014-016>027-051930-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD-Queen Annes-
Talbot-Caroline-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Salem-Gloucester-
Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-
325 PM EDT Sun Sep 4 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New Jersey
and southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ430-431-450>455-051930-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
325 PM EDT Sun Sep 4 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.