Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Twin Cities, MN

946 
WWUS53 KMPX 210007
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
707 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

MNC097-145-153-210030-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0183.000000T0000Z-220621T0030Z/
Todd MN-Stearns MN-Morrison MN-
707 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN TODD...NORTHWESTERN STEARNS AND SOUTHWESTERN
MORRISON COUNTIES...

At 707 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Grey Eagle, or
20 miles west of Little Falls, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Swanville around 710 PM CDT.
  Flensburg around 715 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include St.
Rosa, Long Prairie Airport, Round Prairie, New Munich, Sauk Centre
Airport, Sobieski, Burtrum, North Shore, Little Sauk and Pleasant
Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4560 9471 4571 9507 4613 9480 4601 9438
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 212DEG 47KT 4589 9476 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Borghoff

295 
WWUS53 KMPX 210032
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
732 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

MNC097-145-153-210041-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0183.000000T0000Z-220621T0030Z/
Todd MN-Stearns MN-Morrison MN-
732 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN TODD...
NORTHWESTERN STEARNS AND SOUTHWESTERN MORRISON COUNTIES HAS
EXPIRED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
eastern Todd and western Morrison counties until 800 PM.

LAT...LON 4560 9471 4571 9507 4613 9480 4601 9438
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 212DEG 47KT 4604 9462 

$$

Borghoff

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
631 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

KEY MESSAGES:

- Heat wave peaks today, but above normal temperature to continue
  for the rest of the week.

- Severe thunderstorms with wind as the main threat possible in
  western Minnesota this evening into tonight.

Rest of today... The ridge that has dominated our recent weather
continues to move east and out of the Upper Midwest. On the west
side of this ridge has two impacts: this will be the peak of the
heat wave and storms chances have increased. Continued warm air
advection and continuous sun has pushed temperatures into the 90s
and dew points near 70 leading to heat index values in the 100 to 110
range. A few 100 degree air temperatures remain likely especially in
western Minnesota and in the urban core of the Twin Cities metro.
With all this heat and humidity we will build up significant
instability and CAPE values of 3000 or more are occurring and/or
expected. Storms are expected to fire up along vort maxes to our
southwest and along a cold front slowly moving from the eastern
Dakotas into western Minnesota overnight. This provides us with the
ingredients needed for thunderstorms. The shear is one of the greater
questions though. With this ridge overhead there is not great speed
shear or even much directional shear across much of the forecast
area. Where the shear, especially low level shear will be maximized
will be along the front. That is why the severe threat will be
greatest to the west. The severe threat making it into eastern
Minnesota, the Twin Cities, and Wisconsin is most likely to occur if
the storms this evening grow upscale and we get an MCS tonight moving
across the Upper Midwest. For this reason the main threat will be
damaging winds, although there is a chance for a few discrete cells
earlier in west central Minnesota where some hail could also be a
threat.

Tuesday through Thursday... As the ridge moves out and the cold
front passes through the heat wave and storm threat will come to an
end Tuesday. Western Minnesota will see relief in the morning while
eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin won't see full relief from
the heat until Tuesday night. With a transition to zonal flow don't
expect much relief as temperatures will remain above normal even if
they are not as hot as the current heat wave. Expect temperatures
more in the 80s to around 90 for highs along with more normal dew
points the 50s and low 60s. So more typical summer temperatures for
the start of summer, albeit still a few degrees above normal. Few
chances for precipitation in this period beyond a chance for some air
mass thunderstorms.

Thursday night into the weekend... Precipitation chances return
Thursday night and into the weekend. Thursday night will see a
shortwave pass through the Upper Midwest giving us the next chance
for rain. Previously the best forcing here remained to the north, but
the models have started to shift to the south some. This is most
pronounced within the GFS while the other global models stick closer
to previous runs. There is also quite a spread for locations like
KMSP in ensembles, so little confidence right now in where the best
chance is. Future runs should help make this clearer. The next round
arrives on Saturday as a trough digs into the Upper Midwest. Once
again the GFS is the aggressive and wetter model for us taking the
main forcing farther south than other models. This is once again
reflected in ensembles with a large spread in QPF. So what's the
message for rain chances? Rain possible Thursday night and Saturday,
but location and QPF still uncertain. Hopefully future runs have
less spread between model systems and ensemble members. After these
chances higher pressure moves in and dry weather prevails.
Saturday's trough though does break the flow pattern and return our
temperatures much closer to normal after about a week of heat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Scattered thunderstorms have developed across western MN. They should
impact primarily AXN and STC this evening before dissipating farther
east. Could have some MVFR cigs develop late in those areas as well
before lifting and scattering quickly after sunrise. South southwest
wind will veer west Tuesday.

KMSP...TS should remain to the north and west this evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Chc TS late. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Chc TS. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Excessive Heat Warning until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for Anoka-Benton-Blue
     Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Hennepin-Isanti-
     Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-
     Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-
     Stevens-Swift-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow
     Medicine.

     Heat Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-
     Goodhue-Kanabec-Martin-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Steele-Todd.

WI...Heat Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau
     Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...Borghoff

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
636 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>077-082-083-WIZ014-015-023-212345-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Polk-
Barron-St. Croix-
636 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Dangerous heat indices will continue this evening.

A few severe storms are possible with damaging winds and large
hail, primarily across western Minnesota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this evening.

MNZ078-084-085-091>093-WIZ016-024>028-212345-
Goodhue-Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Rusk-Pierce-Dunn-
Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
636 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Minnesota and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hot heat indices will continue this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Borghoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
617 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

MNZ048-049-055-057-202345-
Kandiyohi MN-Stearns MN-Pope MN-Swift MN-
617 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Pope,
west central Stearns, northeastern Swift and northwestern Kandiyohi
Counties through 645 PM CDT...

At 617 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northeast of Murdock, or 18 miles northwest of Willmar, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Brooten around 635 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Sunburg, Padua and
Elrosa.

This includes U.S. Highway 71 between mile markers 154 and 156.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4526 9522 4533 9538 4564 9517 4556 9491
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 212DEG 41KT 4535 9527

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Borghoff