Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1035 PM EDT Sat May 7 2022

.DISCUSSION...

A quiet overnight with mostly clear skies. The gusty west winds
subsided with sunset but a light west breeze will persist overnight.
The weak cool front is across north FL this evening and will only
make slow progress southward. Did not make any changes to forecast
lows in the mid to upper 60s. On Sunday, breezy W/NW flow will
resume but not as windy as today. High pressure building south down
the eastern seaboard will push the frontal boundary into central FL
allowing winds to veer N/NE along the Volusia and Brevard coasts in
the afternoon. An East sea breeze will develop along the Treasure
coast as the offshore pressure gradient eases. Under mostly sunny
skies, temperatures will be very warm but some frier air filtering
down should produce tolerable humidity. And development of onshore
flow along the coast, esp Volusia and Brevard, should be
refreshing, albeit breezy.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. West winds 7-10 knots overnight. On Sunday, W/NW winds will
increase 15 knots and gusty turning N/NE at coastal terminals,
spreading inland to SFB/MCO toward 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Offshore (W/SW) flow 15 knots nearshore and up to 20 knots offshore
will gradually decrease into Sunday morning as pressure gradient
loosens. Winds turn N/NE Sun aftn as high pressure ridge builds
southward east of the Appalachians with speeds 12-15 knots across
the north/central waters. A more E/SE wind flow expected over the
southern waters Sun aftn around 10 knots. Seas 2-4 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Sensitive fire conditions continue as breezy to windy west to
northwest winds are expected Sunday. Min RH values will approach
critical values of 32-37 percent across much of the interior
peninsula west of I-95 on Sunday afternoon. As a result, a Red Flag
Warning may be needed for parts of the area Sunday.

A surge of northeast winds is expected to arrive to the area on
Monday, with breezy conditions, but RH values remain above critical
thresholds due to the marine influence.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  86  67  79 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  68  92  68  85 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  69  89  69  81 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  67  90  67  82 /   0  10   0   0
LEE  68  88  66  84 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  67  90  66  82 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  70  92  69  85 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  67  90  68  82 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter
     Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet
     20-60 nm.

&&

Kelly/Rodriguez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
845 PM EDT Sat May 7 2022

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-080800-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
845 PM EDT Sat May 7 2022

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A Moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at all
central Florida Atlantic beaches. Always swim near a lifeguard and
never swim alone.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the offshore waters for
west to southwest winds around 20 knots. Small craft should exercise
caution nearshore.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
Breezy west to northwest winds on Sunday will turn onshore along the
coast in the afternoon. Afternoon relative humidities are forecast
to fall into the low to mid 30s for much of east central Florida,
especially west of I-95. Heightened fire sensitivity will continue
areawide for these conditions as well as vegetation dryness.

Poor to hazardous boating conditions will return to the local
coastal waters by Monday afternoon into the extended as a low
pressure system over the Atlantic slowly approaches the local area.
North to Northeast winds will increase 15 to 20 knots with seas
building 6 to 8 feet by Monday evening and reaching 10-12 feet in
the Gulf Stream mid week.

Large long period swells will bring a High risk of rip currents at
the beaches Tuesday onward as well as rough surf and some beach
erosion around the times of high tide.

Rain chances will increase by late week including isolated lightning
storms Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

Kelly