Beach Hazards Statement 12, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
925 PM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022

.UPDATE...

Current-Tonight...Moisture has quickly advected northward with deep
south to southeasterly flow in place throughout the day, with PW
values ranging from 1.10 to 1.30" east to west across the peninsula
this evening. Earlier runs of meso models had shower activity
tapping into this available moisture generally over the western half
of east central FL, but have since backed off over the past few
hours. Thus, updated the forecast to remove even a small chance of
sprinkles over Lake County, with the bulk of shower and storm
activity arriving tomorrow afternoon. Winds will remain breezy
overnight especially along the coast at 10-15 mph from the
southeast. Overnight lows will only reach the mid to upper 60s.

Wednesday...(previous) As we head into the afternoon, moisture will
continue to increase across the region as deep moisture is pulled
from the Gulf and converges over central Florida with moisture
surging from the southeast. Meanwhile, a pre-frontal surface trough
will move through north-central Florida leading to increased
forcing, especially along and west of Cape Canaveral. Guidance
indicates ML CAPE will be in the 1,200-1,500J/kg range, DCAPE of 800
J/kg, steepening lapse rates, and bulk shear around 40kts. For this
reason, strong to marginally severe storms will be possible with a
Marginal Risk for severe storms over the aforementioned areas.
However, any strong storm potential will be conditional on how much
forcing and instability we achieve. The main hazards with any strong
storms that develop will be wind gusts to 60mph, frequent lightning
strikes, and heavy rainfall. Afternoon highs will soar into the mid-
to-upper 80s before rain cooled air arrives.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy south to southeast winds will remain 10-15 knots overnight
with gusts of 18-20 knots possible. Temporarily clear skies will
become broken/overcast towards daybreak as low to mid level moisture
enhances coverage of marine stratocu. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible towards the end of the TAF period,
introducing vicinity mention by the mid afternoon for most
terminals, and maintaining TEMPO vis/cig reductions at MCO due to
thunderstorms coverage. VFR will prevail overnight through mid
morning, with ceiling reductions beginning prior to storm
development.

&&

.MARINE...
Current-Wednesday... South-southeasterly winds at around 12-18kts
will increase to around 20kts overnight. However, seas will
remain below 7 feet with 3-4ft seas nearshore and 4-6ft well
offshore. SCA begins overnight for winds of 20kts with higher
gusts. Chances for showers will increase into the afternoon
Wednesday with scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms
possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  85  67  77 /  10  60  70  90
MCO  68  89  70  80 /  10  60  60  90
MLB  70  86  70  83 /  10  40  50  90
VRB  70  86  70  85 /  10  40  40  80
LEE  68  87  68  76 /  10  60  80  90
SFB  68  87  68  79 /  10  60  70  90
ORL  69  89  70  80 /  10  60  60  90
FPR  70  86  70  85 /  10  30  30  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM....Pendergrast
AVIATION...Smith

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
855 PM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-230700-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
855 PM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
Moderately breezy southeast winds will produce rough surf and a
strong northward flowing longshore current at area beaches.
There will also be a Moderate risk of life- threatening rip
currents at all central FL beaches.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
South to southeast winds will increase overnight becoming 20-25
knots in the offshore marine zones and 15-20 knots nearshore. A
Small Craft Advisory will be in effect tonight through Thursday
afternoon for hazardous marine conditions. Small craft should
exercise caution in the nearshore waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
Isolated to scattered lightning storms are forecast Wednesday and
Thursday as a front slowly approaches and eventually pushes
through central Florida. A few strong to severe storms will be
possible mid to late week. Primary threats include cloud to
ground lightning strikes, torrential downpours with some repeated
rounds leading to minor or nuisance flooding, gusty winds, and
perhaps some small hail.

Winds and seas will remain poor to hazardous for small craft
operation through mid-week, especially away from the coast. The
rip current threat will remain Moderate through mid-week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

Smith