Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1210 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

.DISCUSSION...

For the 05/22/2022 0600 UTC TAF package.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR is prevailing all but KBPT, where MVFR CIGS have persisted
through the evening. Main challenge is timing showers and
thunderstorms, and confidence in this regard is not high.
Attempted to reconcile radar trends and varying solutions offered
by short range guidance, with the general idea being best
prospects for TSTM impacts will be during the morning hours on
SUN. Should this pan out, then the afternoon will likely be
relatively quiet

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1032 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022/

DISCUSSION...
An eastward moving outflow boundary continues to trigger isolated
showers and thunderstorms across coastal southwest/south central
LA and the adjacent Gulf waters. Rest of the area remains quiet
for now, though that is expected to change during the overnight
period into early SUN as one or more convective clusters pushes
in ahead of and/or along an approaching frontal boundary. Updated
grids based on latest observational trends and short range
guidance, though there is a fair amount of uncertainty/spread
surrounding exactly how convection will evolve overnight.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022/

DISCUSSION...

For the 05/22/2022 0000 UTC TAF package.

AVIATION...
Showers and storms will be possible through the period which may
produce periods of MVFR or lower ceilings and vis. MVFR ceilings
will become predominate during the evening and remain in place
through sunrise. Winds may be erratic near storms, however
southeast winds will generally back northeast during the period
while remaining gusty.

05

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022/

SHORT TERM [Tonight through Monday]...
A weak front is slowly moving through central Texas this afternoon
producing some storm activity ahead of the front while storms are
also developing in eastern Louisiana. All of this activity is
moving to the north and northeast. Tonight will see increasing
clouds with shower and tstm actvty developing across cntrl
Louisiana. The storms will move to the northeast while the area of
storms sags to the southeast. The boundary will become stalled
tomorrow and lose most of it's identity but enough will remain to
be the focus for storms initialization. Further support will come
in the way of the upper level trof and the fact precip water will
be running around 1.8 to 1.9 inches through the column. There is
a marginal chance that a few storm may become severe as CAPE
value's are projected to range around 1800 to 2200 j/kg. The main
threat will be winds and hail.

Afternoon temperatures tomorrow will only climb into the mid 80s
with the chance for storms beginning in the morning and
continuing into the afternoon hours.

19

LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday]...

A few more days of wet, disturbed weather can be expected as we
head into the long term period, followed by a return to dry and
more seasonal weather by the end of the period. On Tuesday, a warm
front will be lifting north out of the region, while aloft the
forecast area will be on the eastern periphery of a deepening trof
over the Rockies/Plains. As the warm front lifts north, plentiful
moisture will be left behind, with forecast soundings depicting
PWATs around 1.5-1.80 in. The nearby front along with the upper
trof will be able to tap into this available moisture resulting
in widespread showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Chances look
greatest through the daytime hours, but some showers will likely
linger overnight as well, especially further north closer to the
front.

Moving into the mid-week, upper trof continues to amplify and
eventually slide eastward Wed into Thu. This will allow the warm
front to continue its northward progression, while the associated
cold front will slide across TX and into the forecast area late
Wed/early Thu. Elevated rain chances continue through this period,
before finally tapering off through the day Thu as the boundary
slides through and brings a drier airmass with it.  High pressure
builds overhead as we head into the weekend, bringing about another
period of dry weather for the end of the period.

Temperature wise, widespread showers and cloud cover will hold
daytime highs in the low to mid 80s Tue-Thu. By the end of the week,
temps begin to gradually creep back into the upper 80s, as more
sunshine allows for a slow warming trend.

17

MARINE...

Elevated southerly winds are expected to last through the weekend
as high pressure remains east of the area and a series of low
pressure systems slip across the Great Plains, maintaining a
tighter pressure gradient over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation chances return later tonight with the approach and
passage of a frontal system. After a brief shift to a more
easterly wind direction behind the boundary, onshore flow is
expected to re-develop as the front lifts back onshore.

19

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution until 8 AM CDT this morning for
     GMZ452-455-470-472-475.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
323 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-222030-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
323 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms, a few could be severe late tonight into
tomorrow morning, ahead of a weak frontal boundary.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Look for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and through the coming
week as the frontal boundary is expected to stall for several days
over the region. This will give the region a much needed shot at some
rains which have been lacking as of late.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-222030-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
323 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Winds are expected to remain elevated tonight with seas around three
to four feet in the coastal waters.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Look for the chance of storms over the coastal waters through the up
coming week and the winds to remain elevated and seas from three to
five feet. No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.