High Wind Warning 3, NWS North Platte, NE

637 
WWUS73 KLBF 110005
NPWLBF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service North Platte NE
705 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022

NEZ056>058-069-110115-
/O.EXP.KLBF.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220411T0000Z/
Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Chase-
Including the cities of Chappell, Big Springs, Ogallala, Paxton, 
Grant, Champion, Enders, Imperial, and Wauneta
605 PM MDT Sun Apr 10 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

Northwesterly winds will continue to diminish into the evening
hours. Through mid evening, wind gusts up to 50 MPH are possible
before diminishing to around 20 MPH overnight. 

$$

CLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022

Early morning radar shows a narrow band of precipitation extending from
northeast Colorado, through the Nebraska panhandle and portions of
the sandhills, into central South Dakota. This precipitation is being
driven by deformation and frontogenetical forcing in the northwest
quadrant of the surface low moving through north central Kansas. The
magic surface temperature for rain to snow looks to be around 34F so
will use this as an anchor when developing ptype and snow
accumulations. Expect this band of snow will only make a bit more
eastward progress before pulling off to our north. Expect accumulations
will generally be around an inch or so from the northern sandhills into
the Pine Ridge with maybe a slushy coating eastward to about Route 83
and north of Highway 2. However, expect some showers will linger north
of Route 2 through this afternoon as the upper trof shears off
through the High Plains and swings a ribbon of short wave energy
through northern Nebraska. The boundary layer will become well mixed
again later today with another round of blustery winds expected
especially south of Route 2 where gusts over 40mph are possible.
Temperatures on the back side of the departing low today will be
notably cooler than readings yesterday. Expect highs to range from the
middle 40s across the Pine Ridge to around 60 across south central
Nebraska.

Any lingering precipitation across northern Nebraska ends early tonight
with dry conditions expected through Monday. Lows tonight generally in
the low to mid 20s, with highs on Monday ranging from the low/mid 50s
along the SD/NE border to the lower 60s south of Interstate 80.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022

Guidance solutions are starting to converge toward a solution that will
ultimately have a more northern track for the impactful spring storm
expected for the middle of next week. Vigorous short wave energy
entering the PacNW will carve out a trof over the western US that will
close off and slowly move through the upper midwest. On Tuesday the
developing low will traverse southern Nebraska and bring a big surge of
warm air into the southern part of the state with highs ranging from
around 80 degrees south central Nebraska to the middle 60s along the
SD/NE border and a bit cooler toward the Pine Ridge.

Highest confidence regarding impacts from this storm will be strong
winds as the surface low deepens considerably during its track toward
Minnesota by Thursday morning. This will tighten the pressure gradient
and crank up the wind machine again. The period Tuesday through Thursday
looks to be quite blustery with Wednesday looking to feature the most
widespread potential for wind gusts occasionally over 60mph. By
Thursday as with system slowly pulls off to the northeast the
strongest gusts will be more confined to northeast Nebraska up around
the Niobrara valley.

The expected evolution and track of the low looks to place the heaviest
precipitation and significant snowfall up into the Dakotas with perhaps
accumulations of a couple of inches across central and western Nebraska
with a transition from rain to snow occurring Tuesday night.
Precipitation amounts have trended down as ensemble plumes now cluster
toward lower amounts though the spread in ensemble members is still
great enough to make overall confidence in expected precipitation low.
Median liquid equivalent amounts in the Tue-Wed timeframe range from
around 0.50 inch to the north along the SD/NE border to around one
tenth of an inch along and south of Interstate 80. The best chance for
accumulating snow looks to be north of Route 2 and along/east of Route
83. Precipitation ends rapidly Wednesday as the low continues moving
slowly off to the northeast.

There may be another opportunity for precipitation heading into next
weekend though it remains to be seen how significant the precipitation
may be.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022

MVFR CIGs over north central Nebraska will move out of the area
over the next few hours, with VFR expected to prevail into
tomorrow afternoon. The lone exception will be this evening for
terminals near the Pine Ridge, where some low clouds/precip could
lead to MVFR/locally IFR. Otherwise, expect showers and isolated
TS across north central Nebraska this afternoon, with CIGs
remaining lower-end VFR. Winds remain gusty from the northwest
today, with gusts around 20 to 35kts expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022

Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected
today. A Red Flag warning has been issued for southwest Nebraska as
afternoon humidity dips as low as 11 percent and winds out of the
northwest gust up to 45 mph. In areas north of Interstate 80 and
south of Highway 2, minimum humidity will be in the low 20s with
wind gusts up to 40 mph. Fire weather concerns are low north of
Highway 2 as there is a possibility of precipitation across that
area for much of the day.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible tomorrow as minimum
humidity is between 15 and 22 percent for most of western and north
central Nebraska. However, winds will decrease tomorrow with peak
gusts between 25 and 30 mph in the afternoon. Near critical
conditions may return on Tuesday in parts of southwest Nebraska with
minimum humidity in the upper teens and southwesterly to westerly
wind gusts up to 40 mph.

Temperatures decrease on Wednesday with highs ranging from the low
30s in northern Nebraska to mid 40s in far southwest Nebraska. Winds
will strengthen out of the northwest with gusts possibly reaching 50
mph, but minimum humidity increases to 25 to 50 percent and
precipitation is possible across most of the forecast area.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ210-219.

&&

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Brown
FIRE WEATHER...Meltzer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1059 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-111600-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
1059 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022 /959 AM MDT Sun Apr 10 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected
today due to low humidity and gusty northwesterly winds. A Red
Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon for areas south of
Interstate 80.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible
again both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. The area of greatest
concern is primarily along and south of Interstate 80.

A powerful spring storm will likely affect the Great Plains
Tuesday through Thursday. The storm has the potential to produce
snow and high winds across western and north central Nebraska.
Please continue to check for forecast updates over the next few
days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte