Beach Hazards Statement 1, NWS Green Bay, WI

043 
WHUS43 KGRB 251518
CFWGRB

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1018 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

WIZ022-040-050-252330-
/O.CON.KGRB.BH.S.0001.220525T1700Z-220526T1100Z/
Door-Kewaunee-Manitowoc-
1018 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Considerable wave action and dangerous currents 
  expected.

* WHERE...Beaches along Lake Michigan in Door, Kewaunee and 
  Manitowoc Counties.

* WHEN...From noon CDT today through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming conditions are expected. Strong 
  currents can pull swimmers into deeper water and high waves 
  can sweep people off piers.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Several beaches that will be most 
  susceptible to the dangerous swimming conditions include... 
  Rock Island State Beach, Baileys Harbor beaches and Whitefish 
  Dunes Beach in Door County. Cresent Beach and City of Kewaunee 
  Beach in Kewaunee County. Point Beach, Neshotah Beach and Red 
  Arrow Beach in Manitowoc County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

915 
WHUS43 KGRB 252030
CFWGRB

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
330 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

WIZ022-040-050-260430-
/O.CON.KGRB.BH.S.0001.000000T0000Z-220526T1100Z/
Door-Kewaunee-Manitowoc-
330 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...High waves and dangerous currents. 

* WHERE...Beaches along Lake Michigan in Door, Kewaunee and 
  Manitowoc Counties.

* WHEN...Through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming conditions are expected. Strong 
  currents can pull swimmers into deeper water and high waves 
  can sweep people off piers.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Several beaches that will be most 
  susceptible to the dangerous swimming conditions include... 
  Rock Island State Beach, Baileys Harbor beaches and Whitefish 
  Dunes Beach in Door County. Cresent Beach and City of Kewaunee 
  Beach in Kewaunee County. Point Beach, Neshotah Beach and Red 
  Arrow Beach in Manitowoc County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

543 
WHUS43 KGRB 260154
CFWGRB

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
854 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

WIZ022-040-050-261000-
/O.CON.KGRB.BH.S.0001.000000T0000Z-220526T1100Z/
Door-Kewaunee-Manitowoc-
854 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...High waves and dangerous currents.

* WHERE...Beaches along Lake Michigan in Door, Kewaunee and 
  Manitowoc Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming conditions are expected. Strong 
  currents can pull swimmers into deeper water and high waves 
  can sweep people off piers.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Several beaches that will be most 
  susceptible to the dangerous swimming conditions include... 
  Rock Island State Beach, Baileys Harbor beaches and Whitefish 
  Dunes Beach in Door County. Cresent Beach and City of Kewaunee 
  Beach in Kewaunee County. Point Beach, Neshotah Beach and Red 
  Arrow Beach in Manitowoc County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

703 
WHUS43 KGRB 260807
CFWGRB

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
307 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022

WIZ022-040-050-260915-
/O.CAN.KGRB.BH.S.0001.000000T0000Z-220526T1100Z/
Door-Kewaunee-Manitowoc-
307 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS CANCELLED...

Winds have diminished and waves subsided, so the hazardous
swimming conditions have abated.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
413 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 409 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

Cool and showery today, but turning much warmer for the upcoming
holiday weekend.

A seasonably strong primary band of westerlies will remain across
the CONUS and southern Canada throughout the forecast period,
while a weaker secondary branch of the flow persists at higher
latitudes. The primary band of westerlies will initially be
progressive, allowing an upper trough and attendant cyclone to
shift from the central Plains at the start of the period to the
eastern U.S. by the start of the holiday weekend. Progression will
then slow as major amplification occurs. A strong trough is
expected to deepen over the West, with strong ridging developing
over the eastern CONUS, resulting in strong southwest flow from
the Desert Southwest to Ontario. Continued amplification will
result in a very blocky pattern by the end of the period.

Precipitation amounts for the period are more in question than
was apparent yesterday. The slow passage of a cyclone and upper
trough through the region will still bring a significant rainfall
the next couple days. But the location of the mean features later
in the period has shifted west since yesterday, so it is possible
the block may keep the bulk of the rain in later periods west of
the area. Temperatures will be very cool today, warm some during
the latter part of the week, then rise to considerably above
normal by the latter part of the Memorial Day weekend.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Thursday
Issued at 409 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

Precipitation trends for today into tonight are clearer than they
appeared yesterday. The lead band of rain will shift northward
across mainly the western part of the forecast area today. Then a
more E-W band of showers driven by low-level isentropic lift and a
weak mid-level shortwave will develop across northern IL and
southern WI and sweep north across the rest of the area during the
mid-day hours. The coverage of the showers will decrease during
the late afternoon and evening as the strongest forcing shifts off
to the northeast, but at least scattered showers are likely to
continue through tonight. Trends beyond that point are less clear,
but it appears there may be an uptick in coverage over the NE
early Thursday, and possibly in E-C WI as a weak boundary exits
the area Thursday afternoon. Some thunder is possible in mainly
the SE part of the area, but the widespread showers will limit
destabilization so severe storms are not expected.

Clouds, rain, and east winds will keep temperatures nearly steady
today. A developing warm front may shift at least partially into
the area tonight, probably resulting in the calendar-day high
occurring during the evening over E-C WI. If the front makes it
into the area, it will probably be slow to depart Thursday. So
highs across E-C WI tomorrow may be considerably warmer than to
the N and W where cool NE flow will persist all day.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 409 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

Focus of this forecast continues to revolve around rain and storm
chances through early next week.  Temperatures will be trending
above normal by late in the weekend and likely feel mid-summer like
by early next week.

Thursday night through Friday night...850mb thermal gradient will be
lingering across northeast Wisconsin on Thursday night at the same
time as upper troughing moves across the region.  Forecast soundings
remain nearly saturated over northeast WI through the evening and
will therefore continue with a chance of light rain.  Eventually by
late in the night, north winds will push precip chances offshore of
northeast WI which will bring precip chances to an end.  Then weak
high pressure builds into the region for Friday and Friday night.
Some clouds may linger over northeast WI on Friday, but most areas
should see mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.

Rest of the forecast...Warm advection then takes shape on Saturday
with increasing return flow.  This incoming, warmer airmass will be
considerably more unstable and wouldn't be surprised if a chance of
storms develop on the leading edge of the steeper mid-level lapse
rates.  Thereafter, a mid-summer airmass will be present through the
middle of next week.  Timing thunderstorm chances remains difficult.
Ensemble means indicate that the upper trough becomes stationary
further west than the past several runs.  This would place
northeast WI firmly in the warmer airmass, and further east from the
upstream cold front.  As a result, think storm chances have
diminished late in the weekend into early next week across the
region.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 409 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

In general, the aviation guidance for cigs and vsbys was very
aggressive in lowering those parameters to IFR/LIFR today. The
significant lowering of the vsby during the day seemed
questionable given the relatively low sfc dew points (~35-45F) to
the east. So leaned toward the HREF vsby forecast which was
considerably more optimistic. Although a downward trend in cigs
will occur, the min values seemed a bit too low and adjusted those
up a bit. The coverage of TSRA is expected to be too limited for
explicit inclusion in the TAFs.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Beach Hazards Statement from noon CDT today through late tonight
for WIZ022-040-050.
&&

SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....Skowronski
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......Skowronski

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
415 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-261100-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
415 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and
tonight across east central and far northeast Wisconsin. Severe
storms are not expected.

High waves and dangerous currents will pose a threat to swimmers
on Lake Michigan beaches this afternoon through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There will be a chance of thunderstorms at times from Saturday
into early next week. Severe weather looks unlikely at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-261100-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
415 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Winds and waves hazardous to small craft are expected on the Bay
of Green Bay from mid-day through this evening, and on Lake
Michigan from mid-day through tonight. Thunderstorms will also be
possible at times, which could pose a hazard to boaters. Patchy
dense fog may also restrict visibilities on the Lake tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There will be a chance of thunderstorms at times from Saturday
into early next week. Severe weather looks unlikely at this time.

Winds and waves hazardous to small craft will again be possible
from Sunday into early next week. Dense marine fog will also be
possible at times.

Skowronski/MPC