Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Atlanta, GA

310 
WGUS72 KFFC 031548
FFSFFC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1148 AM EDT Sat Sep 3 2022

GAC187-291-031558-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-220903T1830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lumpkin GA-Union GA-
1148 AM EDT Sat Sep 3 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL LUMPKIN AND 
SOUTHWESTERN UNION COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3473 8410 3473 8409 3474 8409 3484 8407
      3482 8390 3455 8397 3459 8418

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
731 AM EDT Sat Sep 3 2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 411 AM EDT Sat Sep 3 2022/

..Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...

500mb analysis shows a weak mid level low pressure system still
across far SE GA. This low is expected to fill and weaken later
today as a longwave trough approaches from the west. At the surface,
a weak frontal boundary remains stationary across portions of
central GA.

500mb longwave trough currently west of the Mississippi River will
shear out (sw to ne) through Saturday and never really makes it to
the CWA. The main energy associated with this trough remains well to
the north and east. The surface front will remain stationary through
Saturday. Models are spinning up a wave of low pressure along the
boundary later tonight into Sunday which moves east across the CWA
through the period. This wave and approaching trough will provide
enough broad scale lift for more widespread precipitation on Sunday.
For today, isolated to numerous afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will prevail.

Severe weather is not anticipated for today or Sunday, but a few
strong storms will be possible...especially where clouds break and
surface instability increases. Locally heavy rainfall will also be
likely.

NListemaa

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

A bit more agreement in the long term when compared to last night in
the operational models, but ensemble spread still highlights
challenges in correctly handling the evolution of the upper level
pattern. The current upper level low to the west will continue to
slowly meander to the northeast through Sunday night into Monday.
The upper level portion of this will mostly stall keeping the area
under the influence of southwesterly flow aloft over the coming
days. Sharp shortwave is expected to dive into the southern US from
the northern Great Plains going into Tuesday as a result of several
Rossby wave breaks, and this is once again where things get
uncertain. How this interacts and merges with the upper level
low/weakness to the NW of the CWA will be important, and may be the
difference between a washout and not much on the backside of the
week.

Forecast PWATs are still quite high Sunday into Monday, and with
favorable upper level pattern still in place bringing moisture and
some isentropic lift across the area, rain is on the menu. Honestly
may not see much in the way of thunder, though won't rule it out,
but these are going to be more tropical in nature given very high
PWATs and warm temps aloft. Will need to keep an eye on flooding
potential, especially across far north GA, where current forecast
QPF certainly does not represent the higher end of the possible QPF
ensemble spread. Tropical airmass means more efficient warm rain
processes and the potential for higher rainfall rates.

Going forward, while things get a bit messier in the forecast,
signal is beginning to lean towards keeping the CWA on the tropical
side of the moisture axis - but do want to emphasize that there is a
still a contingent of the ensembles that don't, as shown by WPC
cluster analysis, which would dry us out few at least a day or two.
But, if we stay on the moist side of things, expect afternoon
showers and storms to continue unabated Tuesday into Wednesday and
beyond.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Some patchy sct IFR around the northern terminal sites this
morning, but think the prevailing conditions will be sct MVFR with
bkn/ovc mid and high clouds. For the afternoon, bkn cu with ovc
high clouds. IFR likely again overnight. Convective timing remains
challenging and didn't make any changes to the tempo group at this
time. Winds will remain out of the east.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Med confidence.
NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          84  70  83  69 /  50  40  60  60
Atlanta         83  71  81  70 /  70  40  70  60
Blairsville     78  66  77  65 /  50  50  70  70
Cartersville    84  71  82  70 /  70  40  80  70
Columbus        87  72  85  71 /  70  40  80  50
Gainesville     82  70  80  69 /  50  40  70  60
Macon           87  72  85  71 /  70  40  60  50
Rome            86  72  82  71 /  70  50  80  70
Peachtree City  85  70  82  70 /  70  40  70  60
Vidalia         87  71  87  71 /  70  40  60  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
458 AM EDT Sat Sep 3 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-040900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
458 AM EDT Sat Sep 3 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
evening. Thunderstorms are expected to remain below severe limits,
but an isolated strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Primary
hazards will be heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible area-wide from Sunday
through Thursday. A few storms could become strong each day with
frequent lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and gusty winds
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.