Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
226 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 220 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2022

Today:

Today a upper trough and surface low will drift to the north of our
area. A warm front has gradually pushed north of the area today and
has brought southerly winds up to 25 mph. We will remain in the warm
sector through the afternoon with temps rising to near 70. While
significant clearing is unlikely by this afternoon ML CAPE will
increase to 500-1000 J/KG across the area as temperatures warm
and gulf moisture streams north. Additionally ample bulk shear of
50+ knots will be in place today. By the mid afternoon, the
surface low will track to the northeast of the area dragging a
cold front behind. As the cold front slides into the area, expect
scattered thunderstorms activity to develop along the front.
Expect this to remain to the east of the Kansas City Metro and
primarily impact our far south and eastern counties in the
CWA.These storms have the potential to be strong to severe. While
severe weather will remain isolated, some could see hail, strong
winds, or even an isolated brief tornado. Outside of the severe
weather threat, scattered showers are still possible for the
remainder of the area lagging behind the cold front. All this
activity will shift out of the area overnight.

Wednesday:

Quiet weather will return for the remainder of the week, but the low
will be very slow to relinquish impacts on the area. Cooler air
will continue pushing south on Wednesday with temperatures
expected to be mainly in the upper 50s. Dry air is expected to
push into the area on Wednesday. We will also see winds out of the
northwest increase during the day as the gradient tightens at the
base of the trough. Winds could gust as high as 35 to 40 mph
during the afternoon. This will create elevated fire conditions,
especially in our far western area where dewpoints will be lower.
Fire weather concerns will diminish overnight as winds slacken and
relative humidity increases Wednesday night.

Thursday:

A secondary cold front is expected to push through the area late
Wednesday that will bring and additional shot of cold air to the
area. Overnight, expect temperatures to fall into the upper 30s
by Thursday morning. Temperatures will only rise to around 50
during the day and winds will remain quite breezy through the
afternoon. Gusts up to 30 to 35 mph will be possible. This will
make for a fairly unpleasant day for those with outdoor plans
Thursday.

Friday and beyond:

Cold air will continue pushing into the area Thursday night and
Friday. Early Friday morning will see low temperatures near
freezing. Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 40s during
the day Friday. Another cold night is expected as we head into
Saturday morning with temperatures dipping into the mid to upper 20s
across the area.

We will more seasonal temperatures return by with weekend as ridging
moves over the area and the low finally pushes toward the east
coast. Temperatures Saturday should be near 60. 70s are expected
to return for Sunday and continue into the start of next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2022

MVFR ceilings will push into the TAF sites over the next few
hours. Expect winds out of the south to turn toward the northwest
this afternoon as a cold front moves through the area. Winds could
gust up to 25 knots before decreasing after sunset. As the front
passes, showers are expect to develop across the TAF sites. A few
thunderstorms will be possible, especially at IXD. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will move out of the area after sunset and
dry weather will return.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Issued at 430 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2022

With persistent strong and gusty winds on Wednesday and Thursday
and dry conditions, fire weather concerns will be elevated on
these days. However, minimum RH values are only expected to dip
into the upper 20s and lower 30 percent range on Wednesday. This
remains above Red Flag criteria. Additionally, with green up
happening around the area, fuel conditions will likely be less
favorable for fire and this is confirmed by ERC values across the
region. Thursday minimum RH values will be higher, as a slug of
boundary layer moisture advects into the region with the influence
of the upper low. No headline decisions will be made at this time,
but Wednesday will need to be watched, especially across far
eastern KS and far western MO.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...HB
Aviation...HB
Fire Weather...Kurtz/BMW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
553 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-061100-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
553 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Scattered showers with some isolated thunderstorms possible this
afternoon. Better chance for scattered strong thunderstorms in
central Missouri, with small hail and 30 to 50 mph winds possible
with these storms.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

 Dry and gusty northwest winds are expected Wednesday and Thursday.
The humidity will drop to around 20 to 25 percent on Wednesday with
northwest winds around 25 to 35 mph. Similar conditions are expected
Thursday with slightly higher humidity in the 30 to 40 percent range.
The dry and gusty conditions will bring some fire weather concerns
both days. Outdoor burning is discouraged Wednesday and Thursday.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
507 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

KSZ105-MOZ037-043-052230-
Johnson KS-Cass MO-Jackson MO-
507 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Johnson, northwestern Cass and southwestern Jackson Counties through
530 PM CDT...

At 507 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Overland Park, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kansas City, Overland Park, Olathe, Independence, Lee's Summit, Blue
Springs, Leawood, Raytown, Grandview, Belton, Raymore, Pleasant Hill,
Greenwood, Lake Winnebago, Baldwin Park, Unity Village, Stillwell and
Stanley.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Missouri near mile marker 17.
 Interstate 470 between mile markers 0 and 15.
 Interstate 435 between mile markers 68 and 79.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3874 9474 3890 9479 3904 9433 3878 9424
      3873 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 254DEG 25KT 3884 9467

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

BT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
530 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

MOZ037-038-043-044-052300-
Cass MO-Johnson MO-Lafayette MO-Jackson MO-
530 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Cass,
southwestern Lafayette, southern Jackson and northwestern Johnson
Counties through 600 PM CDT...

At 530 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lee's Summit, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kansas City, Independence, Lee's Summit, Blue Springs, Raytown,
Grandview, Belton, Raymore, Grain Valley, Oak Grove, Odessa,
Greenwood, Lake Lotawana, Lake Winnebago, Lone Jack, Lake Tapawingo,
Lake Lafayette, Bates City, Unity Village and Tarsney Lakes.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 16 and 41.
 Interstate 470 between mile markers 3 and 16.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3882 9457 3903 9444 3911 9390 3884 9387
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 265DEG 31KT 3895 9433

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
532 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

MOZ037-038-043-044-052300-
Cass MO-Johnson MO-Lafayette MO-Jackson MO-
532 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Cass,
southwestern Lafayette, southern Jackson and northwestern Johnson
Counties through 600 PM CDT...

At 530 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lee's Summit, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kansas City, Independence, Lee's Summit, Blue Springs, Raytown,
Grandview, Belton, Raymore, Grain Valley, Oak Grove, Odessa,
Greenwood, Lake Lotawana, Lake Winnebago, Lone Jack, Lake Tapawingo,
Lake Lafayette, Bates City, Unity Village and Tarsney Lakes.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 16 and 41.
 Interstate 470 between mile markers 3 and 16.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3882 9457 3903 9444 3911 9390 3884 9387
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 265DEG 31KT 3895 9433

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
557 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

MOZ037-038-044-052330-
Johnson MO-Lafayette MO-Jackson MO-
557 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Lafayette, southeastern Jackson and northwestern Johnson Counties
through 630 PM CDT...

At 557 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lone Jack, or 8 miles east of Lake Lotawana, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Warrensburg, Oak Grove, Odessa, Higginsville, Lone Jack, Lake
Lafayette, Bates City, Aullville, Fayetteville, Tarsney Lakes and
Pittsville.

This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 36 and
52.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3879 9412 3883 9412 3883 9417 3884 9420
      3898 9421 3905 9368 3878 9365
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 265DEG 30KT 3890 9411

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BT