Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Buffalo, NY

021 
WWUS51 KBUF 161914
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
314 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

NYC009-013-029-161930-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-220616T1930Z/
Cattaraugus NY-Erie NY-Chautauqua NY-
314 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CATTARAUGUS...SOUTH CENTRAL ERIE AND CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTIES...

At 314 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 9 miles north of Falconer to near Wattsburg, moving
east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind damage to 
         trees and power lines.

Locations impacted include...
Jamestown, Lakewood, Gowanda, Falconer, Ashford, Mayville, Clymer,
Long Point State Park, Jamestown West and Frewsburg.

This includes Interstate 86 between exits 4 and 16.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for western New
York.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

If on or near Chautauqua Lake, get away from the water and move 
indoors or inside a vehicle. remember, lightning can strike out to 
15 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you 
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter 
now!  Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4232 7943 4252 7884 4234 7852 4200 7910
      4200 7976 4219 7976
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 254DEG 34KT 4226 7918 4200 7988 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Mitchell

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
139 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and humid airmass remains across western and north
central NY today. Heat indices in the mid to upper 90s are
likely across much of the area. Strong to severe thunderstorms
will develop ahead of a cold front and move across the area this
afternoon into early evening. Much cooler conditions will return
for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
...ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...

The entirety of our forecast area has now entered the warm
sector as a warm front has largely cleared the North Country and
a trailing cold front is currently trudging through southwestern
Ontario as of 1 PM. Sultry conditions reside within the warm
sector with widespread mid 70s (yes, you read that
correctly...mid 70s!) for dewpoints with surface temperatures
largely in the mid 80s to lower 90s across the area. This is
already resulting in heat index values of 90 to over 100 degrees
in a few spots.

The 12z KBUF sounding already had about 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and
regional mesoanalysis indicates roughly 50 kts of bulk shear in
the air mass ahead of the front. Further, PWATs were over an
inch and a half as of 12z, and model projections indicate they
should surpass 2 inches this afternoon. Additionally, visible
satellite imagery shows well developed lake breeze cumulus has
developed to the east of Lake Erie and confluently-enhanced
cumulus is developing through the Finger Lakes, where
southeasterly flow laden with Atlantic moisture is meeting the
sultry air mass encroaching from the west. A dual threat of
convective initiation exists in the immediate term in these
areas. Further, water vapor imagery reveals a deep PV anomaly as
associated mid-level drying advancing eastward from southeastern
lower Michigan. This will both work to further destabilize the
mid-levels and enhance ascent ahead of it. With this in mind,
within the next couple of hours, it would seem convective
activity along the Lake Erie lake breeze should really take off.

Given the aforementioned parameters, and hodographs that should
be extending, sustained rotating updrafts are a threat over the
next several hours and into the evening. This yields a very real
risk of damaging wind, large hail, and even a tornado with
supercellular thunderstorm development. Eventually, the cold
front will move eastward across the area as well. This may will
bring an additional secondary threat of another round of
damaging wind gusts as it moves through. All in all, this is
setting up to be one of the more impressive convective days we
are likely to see in any given year in WNY.

Behind the cold front, gusty conditions will persist into
Friday. Flow will become increasingly northerly and mid-level
cold pooling combined with diurnal heating will lead to
scattered showers in the North Country and south of Lake Ontario
by Friday afternoon in a drastically changing boundary layer
environment.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Deep trough digs across eastern Canada and the northeast this
weekend. As the saying goes, what go up must come down. That will be
the main impact from the trough as our brief spell of hot and humid
conditions comes to an end. Temps this weekend flip with readings
well below normal for highs and lows, especially Saturday. Bulk
of larger scale lift and deep moisture with the trough will be
east of the lower Great Lakes, so generally conditions look dry
for the upcoming weekend.

Friday serves as a transition day to the cooler conditions this
weekend. Main sfc low tied to the mid-level trough shifts across
Quebec with cold front reaching the east coast through the day.
Showers and some thunder especially North Country and likely more in
the afternoon with peak heating ahead ahead of arrival of stronger
shortwave within the mean trough. A few showers and storms could
also occur south of Lake Ontario farther inland toward Finger Lakes.
A bit of warmth lingers with highs still in the mid to upper in the
70s. Noticeably less humid though. Otherwise plan for breezy
conditions Friday with wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible from the
west-northwest. This will result in choppy conditions on the Great
Lakes and an increased swim risk for Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

Friday night into Saturday H85 temps drop further as cold air
deepens. H85 temps may lower to 2-3C on Saturday over much of our
area. Given lake temps 17-19C, there will be over-water instability.
Don't expect any rain, but models hint at decent amount of clouds
south and east of both the lakes. This is especially true later
Friday night into Saturday morning. Under a mix of sun and clouds,
Saturday will be pretty chilly with highs maybe not making 60 for
higher terrain east of Lake Ontario and across Southern Tier. Mid
60s otherwise. Normal highs are in the mid to upper 70s. Chill
continues Saturday night into Sunday morning. Lows Saturday night
could drop to around 40 east of Lake Ontario and will be in the 40s
elsewhere, though the immediate lake plains will stay just above 50.
Normal lows are in the 50s all areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An elongated high pressure centered over the Eastern Great Lakes and
the Appalachians Monday morning will provide dry weather through
most of the day on Monday. There is still some model split on the
potential for showers the second half of Monday with an approaching
warm front and the timing of the front. So for now going with the
chance for showers Monday evening.

Increased ridging along with a passing warm front will cause day to
day warming through Wednesday. By Wednesday, temperatures will reach
into the mid 70s to mid 80s for most areas. A passing cold front
midweek, most likely Wednesday night will cool temperatures slightly
for Thursday.

Similar to the pattern that is currently occuring with the ridge, a
convectively enhanced shortwave/MCS is expected to drop southeast
along the warm front between Monday night and Tuesday night,
depending on the model. Placement for this feature will be reliant
as to where the warm front will be in place, and whether this
feature will be over the forecast area or not. If the warm front
moves through quickly earlier in the week, then it will be a warmer,
but drier long term period. But if the front is a bit slower, then
the warm-up will be slower, with the increased chance at the
convective shortwave tracking over the area. Thursday will start to
dry out behind the passing cold front, though some lingering showers
will be possible, especially early.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cumulus has begun to develop across the area this afternoon with
KIAG and KBUF in the most stable of air to this point.
Thunderstorms will develop along the lake breezes within the
next couple of hours and track eastward with a real +RA/GR/wind
gust potential. A secondary line of showers and storms will
approach along the cold front later this evening. Timing for
these is still a bit uncertain, however IFR conditions will be
possible in heavier TS with VFR conditions otherwise. Behind the
front, as the air mass stabilizes, a lot of momentum off the
ground will yield overnight LLWS threats that will diminish as
wind gusts again become more common on Friday

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers east of Lake Ontario.
Saturday and Sunday...VFR.
Monday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A southwest wind will increase today and build waves into this
evening. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for Lake Erie through
8PM tonight. There is the potential for strong thunderstorms with
gusty winds this afternoon into early evening.

Winds and waves lessen tonight but increase again Friday behind a
cold front across Lake Erie and Lake Ontario and small craft
advisories are likely into Saturday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ001>005-
     010>014-019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
         LEZ020.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HSK/TMA
NEAR TERM...Fries
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...Fries
MARINE...Fries/HSK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
812 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

NYZ001>005-010>014-019-085-171215-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
812 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

There is a slight to enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon. The main hazards will be damaging winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-020-021-171215-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
812 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon
into this evening. The main hazards will be damaging winds and large
hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-171215-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
812 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon
into evening. The greatest chances will be for Lake Ontario and the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

EAJ