Wind Advisory 6, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

787 
WWUS71 KBOX 220923
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
423 AM EST Tue Feb 22 2022

MAZ017>021-023-RIZ002>007-222230-
/O.NEW.KBOX.FG.Y.0005.220222T0923Z-220222T1400Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0006.220223T0100Z-220223T1000Z/
Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-
Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-Dukes MA-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-
Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-
Including the cities of Taunton, Brockton, Plymouth, Fall River, 
New Bedford, Mattapoisett, Vineyard Haven, Providence, Coventry, 
West Greenwich, East Greenwich, Warwick, West Warwick, Bristol, 
Narragansett, Westerly, and Newport
423 AM EST Tue Feb 22 2022

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Dense Fog Advisory, visibility one quarter mile
  or less in dense fog. For the Wind Advisory, south winds 15 to
  25 mph with gusts between 40 and 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southeastern Massachusetts as well as
  central and southern Rhode Island.

* WHEN...For the Dense Fog Advisory, until 9 AM EST this 
  morning. For the Wind Advisory, from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM 
  EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
  Hazardous driving conditions due to low visibility. Below
  temperatures may also result in areas of freezing fog and
  patches of black ice early this morning.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of
distance ahead of you.

&&

$$

RIZ001-221400-
/O.NEW.KBOX.FG.Y.0005.220222T0923Z-220222T1400Z/
Northwest Providence RI-
Including the cities of Foster and Smithfield
423 AM EST Tue Feb 22 2022

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.

* WHERE...Northwest Providence RI County.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to low visibility.
  Below temperatures may also result in areas of freezing fog and
  patches of black ice early this morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of
distance ahead of you.

&&

$$

MAZ005>007-013>016-022-024-RIZ008-222230-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0006.220223T0100Z-220223T1000Z/
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-
Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-
Eastern Norfolk MA-Barnstable MA-Nantucket MA-Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Gloucester,
Foxborough, Norwood, Cambridge, Boston, Quincy, Chatham, 
Falmouth, Provincetown, Nantucket, and New Shoreham
423 AM EST Tue Feb 22 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts between 40 and 50 mph.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts, Suffolk MA, Southeast Middlesex MA, 
  Eastern Norfolk MA, Western Norfolk MA, Central Middlesex MA, 
  Western Essex MA, Eastern Essex MA, Barnstable MA and 
  Nantucket MA Counties. In Rhode Island, Block Island RI County.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Frank

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/box

029 
WWUS71 KBOX 221404
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
904 AM EST Tue Feb 22 2022

MAZ017>021-023-RIZ002>007-230315-
/O.EXP.KBOX.FG.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-220222T1400Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0006.220223T0100Z-220223T1000Z/
Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-
Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-Dukes MA-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-
Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-
Including the cities of Taunton, Brockton, Plymouth, Fall River, 
New Bedford, Mattapoisett, Vineyard Haven, Providence, Coventry, 
West Greenwich, East Greenwich, Warwick, West Warwick, Bristol, 
Narragansett, Westerly, and Newport
904 AM EST Tue Feb 22 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southeastern Massachusetts and northern 
  and southern Rhode Island.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

RIZ001-221515-
/O.EXP.KBOX.FG.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-220222T1400Z/
Northwest Providence RI-
Including the cities of Foster and Smithfield
904 AM EST Tue Feb 22 2022

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Visibilities have improved in most locations above Dense Fog
Advisory criteria. Visibilities will continue to improve, but
there may be localized spots of dense fog into late morning. If
traveling, allow extra time to reach your destination and take it
slow.

$$

MAZ005>007-013>016-022-024-RIZ008-230315-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0006.220223T0100Z-220223T1000Z/
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-
Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-
Eastern Norfolk MA-Barnstable MA-Nantucket MA-Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Gloucester,
Foxborough, Norwood, Cambridge, Boston, Quincy, Chatham, 
Falmouth, Provincetown, Nantucket, and New Shoreham
904 AM EST Tue Feb 22 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts, Suffolk MA, Southeast Middlesex MA, 
  Eastern Norfolk MA, Western Norfolk MA, Central Middlesex MA, 
  Western Essex MA, Eastern Essex MA, Barnstable MA and 
  Nantucket MA Counties. In Rhode Island, Block Island RI County.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/box

696 
WWUS71 KBOX 222016
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
316 PM EST Tue Feb 22 2022

MAZ005>007-013>024-RIZ002>008-230930-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0006.220223T0100Z-220223T1000Z/
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-
Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-
Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-
Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-Southeast Providence RI-
Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-Washington RI-
Newport RI-Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Gloucester,
Foxborough, Norwood, Cambridge, Boston, Quincy, Taunton, 
Brockton, Plymouth, Fall River, New Bedford, Mattapoisett, 
Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, Vineyard Haven, Nantucket, 
Providence, Coventry, West Greenwich, East Greenwich, Warwick, 
West Warwick, Bristol, Narragansett, Westerly, Newport, 
and New Shoreham
316 PM EST Tue Feb 22 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of eastern, northeastern and southeastern 
  Massachusetts and northern and southern Rhode Island.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/box

964 
WWUS71 KBOX 230746
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
246 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

MAZ005>007-013>017-020-RIZ002>008-230900-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-220223T1000Z/
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-
Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-
Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-Southern Bristol MA-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-
Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Gloucester,
Foxborough, Norwood, Cambridge, Boston, Quincy, Taunton, 
Fall River, New Bedford, Providence, Coventry, West Greenwich, 
East Greenwich, Warwick, West Warwick, Bristol, Narragansett, 
Westerly, Newport, and New Shoreham
246 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Wind speeds have diminished below wind advisory criteria.
Therefore, the wind advisory has been cancelled.

$$

MAZ002-008-009-232100-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WI.Y.0007.220223T1600Z-220224T0400Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Chesterfield, and Blandford
246 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Western Franklin MA, Western Hampshire MA and Western 
  Hampden MA Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MAZ018-019-021>024-231000-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-220223T1000Z/
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Including the cities of Brockton, Plymouth, Mattapoisett, 
Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, Vineyard Haven, and Nantucket
246 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts between 40 and 50
  mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Plymouth MA, Western Plymouth MA, Nantucket 
  MA, Southern Plymouth MA, Barnstable MA and Dukes MA Counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EST early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Frank

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/box

165 
WWUS71 KBOX 230907
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
407 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

MAZ018-019-021>024-231015-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-220223T1000Z/
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Including the cities of Brockton, Plymouth, Mattapoisett, 
Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, Vineyard Haven, and Nantucket
407 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Wind speeds have diminished below wind advisory criteria.
Therefore, the wind advisory has been cancelled.

$$

MAZ002-008-009-232215-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0007.220223T1600Z-220224T0400Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Chesterfield, and Blandford
407 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
11 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Western Hampshire MA, Western Hampden MA and Western 
  Franklin MA Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Frank

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/box

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
941 PM EST Mon Feb 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild with dry and quiet weather tonight with increasing mid to
high clouds late. Still mild, but a non-diurnal temperature
trend Tuesday and Tuesday night. Temperatures rising throughout
this period. Rain and gusty winds move in late Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Rain diminishes with decreasing cloudiness and quite mild
temperatures Wednesday then precedes a cold front that will bring
breezy conditions and falling temperatures for the second half of
Wednesday. High pressure supports seasonable conditions Thursday. A
complex low pressure area may bring accumulations of snow and ice to
Southern New England Friday into early Friday night. Colder than
normal temperatures for the weekend in a continued active weather
pattern.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

940 PM Update...

* Dry Weather persists overnight, but expect areas of fog to
  develop across RI/SE MA toward daybreak

A ridge of high pressure off the coast will maintain dry weather
overnight. We will begin to see south-southwest flow aloft
develop after midnight as low pressure over the southern plains
lifts northeast towards the western Great Lakes. The flow at the
surface though will remain rather light...so expect low temps to
drop into the 20s to around 30 in most locations. However, the
urban heat islands of BOS/PVD, some of the elevated areas
around the Worcester Hills will only drop into the 30s. As the
prior forecast mentioned the light southerly flow will also keep
temps milder along the immediate south coast. In fact, higher
dewpoints working northward into the cooling boundary layer will
likely result in areas of fog developing across RI/SE MA toward
daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights

* Filtered sunshine to start on Tuesday, but will see increasing
  cloud cover with rain showers spreading in. Steady
  precipitation most likely late Tuesday into early Wednesday.
  Gusty winds Tuesday evening into early Wednesday.

* Non-diurnal temperature trend on Tuesday due to cold air
  damming.

Shortwave trough over the Mid Mississippi River Valley early on
Tuesday lifts into the eastern Great Lakes by late Tuesday and
into/through Northern New England/Quebec by late Tuesday. A
warm front lifts into and through southern New England on
Tuesday. The surface low slides across the eastern Great Lakes
late on Tuesday, which keeps us within the warm sector. Does not
appear that the cold front moves through until Wednesday.

Main changes in the latest update was to slow down the
increasing PoPs a bit, increase wind speeds/gusts and introduce
a non-diurnal temp trend. Anticipate that the day will start off
with filtered sunshine with increasing cloud cover. There may be
some light showers as the warm front is lifting thru earlier in
the day, but precip becomes more widespread during the afternoon
and Tuesday night. This is in response to a strengthening low
level jet. During the day will have roughly a 40-60 kt 925 hPa
SSW/S jet. The jet strengthens to 40-70+ kts Tuesday night,
which coincides with when the heaviest precip is anticipated.
Given the flow will see PWATs getting up to roughly 1-1.25
inches, which is approaching the max values per SPC Sounding
Climatology for CHH. Have held off from a thunder mention as
there is little instability and a fairly strong inversion in
place. Suspect if there are any rumbles of thunder it would be
along the south coast. When all is said and done should see
roughly 0.25-1 inches of rain with the highest amounts across
western portions of the CWA and lowest over the Cape/Islands.
Blended the precip toward the WPC/NAM and GFS.

Focusing on the winds/gusts. A bit of a tricky forecast as there
is an impressive low level jet moving through Tuesday night.
Forecast soundings show that there will be a strong inversion in
place with strong warm air advection, so it will be difficult
for these winds to mix down. The only exception is late Tuesday
as the heavier precipitation is moving in. This may help bring
down some of the stronger gusts. For now have 30-40 mph gusts
with the highest values over the Cape/Islands. If we can mix a
bit better then it is not out of the question some spots will
need a Wind Advisory in future updates.

Lastly, introduced a non-diurnal temp trend in the latest
update. Appears there are some hints of cold air damming across
the region on Tuesday per sea level pressure pattern extending
from ME/NH into southern New England. This is shown well by high
resolution guidance, but blended toward the latest NAM/GFS/HREF
from the previous forecast. This is not as cold as the latest
NAMNest/ARW guidance, which may be a bit too cold. Think much of
the interior will struggle to get out of the 40s, but especially
the Merrimack and CT River Valleys until Tuesday night. Should
see the warmest temperatures of the day Tuesday evening.
Temperatures will continue to warm Tuesday night into early
Wednesday due to the strong warm air advection.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights:

* Decreasing clouds with potential for mid 60s highs Wed, then
  turning gusty with falling temps for later Wed and Wed night.

* Seasonable but very dry Thursday.

* Complex storm system Fri into early Fri night may bring
  accumulations of snow and/or ice to the area; details and
  accumulation amounts are still not clear due to uncertainties in
  storm track and mixed precip type transitions. Stay tuned!

* Colder than normal for the weekend and remains unsettled.

Details:

Wednesday into Wednesday Night:

Sfc cyclone to move thru the St. Lawrence River thru most of the
daytime hrs on Wed; mid-level warm front to have moved offshore by
the mid-AM with decreasing PoP and anomalously mild low-level temps
for late-Feb left behind (NAM-based 925 mb temps are in the positive
mid teens Celsius range!). However mixing may prove limited given
isothermal to weakly stable low-level profiles and residual low-
level cloudiness both hanging around. This mixing also looks to keep
stronger SW flow from mixing down with SW daytime gusts around 25 to
40 mph. While much of the day should be dry, these described mixing
effects leads to lowered confidence in the high temperature forecast
for Wed. Kept temps closer to NBM guidance which shows highs in the
low to mid 60s as it won't take much mixing to realize those temps;
but if more clouds do stick around these highs could be several degs
too warm.

Toward late in the day into the before-midnight period, it turns
increasingly breezy/gusty from the WNW with sharply falling temps as
cold front surges SE through SNE. NW gusts could approach Advisory
levels across the terrain in northern Worcester County and the
Berkshires; possible we could have some minor tree damage across
these two locations given wettened ground but overall impact looks
quite limited. Gusts 30-45 mph should be common given the strong
cold advection steepening lapse rates, perhaps up to 50 mph in the
Berkshires, Worcester and Tolland Hills. Do have to watch for freeze-
up of any standing water but should have good evaporation given
falling dewpoints, clearing skies and the gusts as mentioned in the
post-cold frontal air mass for the overnight. Lows fall into the
upper teens to mid 20s.

Thursday:

Strong ridge of high pressure remains established over SNE during
the daytime hrs Thurs. This high pressure will bring lots of sun
with seasonable high temps reaching into the 30s; but the
atmospheric column is exceedingly dry with single digit to mid teens
dewpoints. This will set the stage for potential for wet-bulb
cooling effects looking into the nighttime hrs (to be discussed
below). An initial wave of low pressure will be tracking from the
southern Plains into the mid-MS Valley, a system that we'll be
watching into late Thurs night into Fri, but looking at dry weather
for Thurs.

Thursday Night through Friday Night:

Low pressure then moves through the OH Valley and Appalachians, with
its surface warm front approaching our southern coastal waters
toward the overnight/pre-dawn Fri hrs. Some indication in
deterministic model guidance and ensemble members of secondary low
pressure development near or over our southern waters on Fri, then
moving eastward into later Fri or Fri night.

Growing confidence on a complex storm system that looks to bring the
potential for wintry weather to SNE, centered roughly around the pre-
dawn hours Fri through later Fri or Fri night period. Initial warm
frontal precip from Thurs night should cool temperatures through wet-
bulb effects, especially given potential for strong lift due to
frontogenesis. The so-called "front end thump" tied to the warm
front Fri AM should force initial p-type as snow, perhaps at
moderate to heavy rates for a time. Current indications are for a
snow to wintry-mix scenario; however there remain uncertainties
regarding placement of secondary low development and its track, the
northward advance of warmer air aloft, and timing how long any
wintry-mixed precip may last. Each of these effects will heavily
dictate p-types and accumulations of snow and ice. Thus still
prudent to take a probabilistic approach, with ensemble
probabilities showing strong percentage probabilities for 24-hour
snow of 6 inches along and north of the Mass Pike, with lesser
probabilities further south where wintry mix could take shape. NBM
snow probs also support these probabilities as well; ultimately snow
and ice accumulations will depend on storm track and how far north
the warmer air aloft makes it. Prospects for coastal flooding
however appear low to nil however as Fri AM's high tide is only
around 10 ft MLLW for Boston Harbor with low wave action and modest
onshore winds. We encourage everyone to keep attuned to the latest
forecasts as snow and ice accumulations will likely fluctuate/be
adjusted as we move through the mid to late week period.

The Weekend into Monday:

Colder than normal weather for late-Feb then returns for the weekend
with initial high pressure Sat weakening. However weather pattern
still looks fairly active with possible coastal storminess to
monitor into the later Sunday night or Monday timeframe. Plenty of
time to monitor these details especially given one to two storms
ahead of it in the pipeline for this week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight: High confidence, trends to moderate on timing of fog
near the South Coast.

VFR for most with light and variable winds. Should become light
E/SE toward daybreak. Highest confidence in MVFR-LIFR radiation
fog at PVD and the Cape airports between 08-14z, though the
start timing could be sooner.

Tuesday...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing.

Ceilings lowering to MVFR/IFR as rain showers spread in. Could
have see some isolated LIFR in any heavier showers. Winds out of
the E/SE increasing to 10-15 kts late. Will have some LLWS
concerns heading into the PM push as a strong low level jet
moves in overhead.

Tuesday night...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing.

MVFR to IFR conditions with rain showers that could be briefly
heavy at times especially across the interior. Winds out of the
S at 10-20 kts with gusts of 30-35 kts with the highest speeds
over the Cape/Islands. On top of this will have LLWS concerns
due to the strong low level jet moving through.

BOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

BDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds
with local gusts up to 45 kt.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to
45 kt.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
SN likely, FZRA.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. PL, RA,
chance SN, FZRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight...High confidence.

S/SW winds shifting to the SE toward daybreak with speeds of
5-10 kts. Seas 1-3 ft.

Tuesday...High confidence.

Winds out of the S/SSE at 5-10 kts increasing to 20 kts by late
generally out of the S. Gusts increase to 25-30 kts Tuesday
afternoon. Seas building 3 to 5 feet with light rain spreading
in.

Tuesday Night...Moderate confidence.

Winds out of the S initially shifting to the SSW/SW at 20-25
kts. Gusts of 30-40 kts, but diminishing toward daybreak.
Hoisted a Gale Watch as there is some uncertainty in how much of
the winds mix down from the low level jet moving through. Rain
showers likely, which may reduce visibility at times as heavier
showers move through. Seas building 7 to 11 feet.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Slight chance of
rain.

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Rain, snow, sleet.

Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Rain, snow, sleet,
freezing rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BL/Loconto
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...BL
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...BL/Loconto
MARINE...BL/Loconto

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
658 PM EST Mon Feb 21 2022

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>008-230000-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-
Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
658 PM EST Mon Feb 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, all of
Massachusetts east of Berkshire County, and Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Gusty southwest winds are possible across Cape Cod and the Islands
Tuesday night.

In addition, there is growing confidence on low pressure that may
bring wintry weather to Southern New England on Friday into early
Friday evening. Accumulating snow and ice are possible. Continue to
monitor the latest forecasts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-230000-
Boston Harbor-Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-
Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
658 PM EST Mon Feb 21 2022

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts and Rhode
Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For more information on upcoming hazardous weather, please see the
Area Forecast Discussion on our webpage for the latest forecast
thinking. There is also our Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook at
www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/nwsboston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
126 AM EST Tue Feb 22 2022

MAZ013-016>021-RIZ001>007-221230-
Western Norfolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-
Southern Plymouth MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-
Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-
Including the cities of Foxborough, Norwood, Quincy, Taunton,
Brockton, Plymouth, Fall River, New Bedford, Mattapoisett,
Foster, Smithfield, Providence, Coventry, West Greenwich,
East Greenwich, Warwick, West Warwick, Bristol, Narragansett,
Westerly, and Newport
126 AM EST Tue Feb 22 2022

...AREAS OF FREEZING FOG MAY RESULT IN PATCHES OF BLACK ICE EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS...

Areas of fog will continue to develop early this morning across
portions of Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts. This coupled
with temperatures below freezing may allow some of this fog to
freeze on roadways; resulting in patches of black ice. This is
particularly true across bridges and overpasses. Motorists are
urged to drive with extra caution early this morning. Temperatures
should rise above freezing by mid morning, alleviating any of
these issues.

Frank