Wind Advisory 7, NWS Gaylord, MI

777 
WWUS73 KAPX 300224
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
924 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

MIZ024-030-035-036-041-042-301130-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0007.221130T0900Z-221201T0300Z/
Alpena-Alcona-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Including the cities of Alpena, Harrisville, West Branch, 
Tawas City, Gladwin, and Standish
924 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Alpena, Alcona, Ogemaw, Iosco, Gladwin and Arenac 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MIZ098-301130-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-221201T0500Z/
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Including the city of St. James
924 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Beaver Island and surrounding islands.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to midnight EST Wednesday night.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

926 
WWUS73 KAPX 300758
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
258 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

MIZ098-301600-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-221201T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WI.Y.0008.221130T0900Z-221201T1200Z/
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Including the city of St. James
258 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Beaver Island and surrounding islands County.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MIZ029-033-034-301600-
/O.EXB.KAPX.WI.Y.0007.221130T0900Z-221201T1200Z/
Oscoda-Missaukee-Roscommon-
Including the cities of Mio, Lake City, and Houghton Lake
258 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Oscoda, Missaukee and Roscommon Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MIZ020-025-026-031-032-301600-
/O.EXB.KAPX.WI.Y.0007.221130T0900Z-221201T1200Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee-Wexford-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, 
Manistee, and Cadillac
258 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie, Grand Traverse, Manistee and Wexford 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MIZ024-030-035-036-041-042-301600-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WI.Y.0007.221130T0900Z-221201T1200Z/
Alpena-Alcona-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Including the cities of Alpena, Harrisville, West Branch, 
Tawas City, Gladwin, and Standish
258 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Alpena, Alcona, Ogemaw, Iosco, Gladwin and Arenac 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

714 
WWUS73 KAPX 301627
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1127 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

MIZ024-030-035-036-041-042-010030-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-221201T1200Z/
Alpena-Alcona-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Including the cities of Alpena, Harrisville, West Branch, 
Tawas City, Gladwin, and Standish
1127 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Alpena, Alcona, Ogemaw, Iosco, Gladwin and Arenac 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MIZ098-010030-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-221201T1200Z/
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Including the city of St. James
1127 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Beaver Island and surrounding islands County.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MIZ029-033-034-010030-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-221201T1200Z/
Oscoda-Missaukee-Roscommon-
Including the cities of Mio, Lake City, and Houghton Lake
1127 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Oscoda, Missaukee and Roscommon Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MIZ020-025-026-031-032-010030-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-221201T1200Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee-Wexford-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, 
Manistee, and Cadillac
1127 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie, Grand Traverse, Manistee and Wexford 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

080 
WWUS73 KAPX 302115
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
415 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

MIZ024-030-035-036-041-042-010515-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-221201T1200Z/
Alpena-Alcona-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Including the cities of Alpena, Harrisville, West Branch, 
Tawas City, Gladwin, and Standish
415 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* WHERE...Alpena, Alcona, Ogemaw, Iosco, Gladwin and Arenac 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MIZ098-010515-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-221201T1200Z/
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Including the city of St. James
415 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Beaver Island and surrounding islands County.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MIZ029-033-034-010515-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-221201T1200Z/
Oscoda-Missaukee-Roscommon-
Including the cities of Mio, Lake City, and Houghton Lake
415 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* WHERE...Oscoda, Missaukee and Roscommon Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MIZ020-025-026-031-032-010515-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-221201T1200Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee-Wexford-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, 
Manistee, and Cadillac
415 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie, Grand Traverse, Manistee and Wexford 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

548 
WWUS73 KAPX 010252
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
952 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

MIZ020-024-026-029-032>034-010400-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-221201T1200Z/
Leelanau-Alpena-Grand Traverse-Oscoda-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-
Including the cities of Northport, Alpena, Traverse City, Mio, 
Cadillac, Lake City, and Houghton Lake
952 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

The wind advisory had been replaced with a winter weather
advisory. Gusts to 45 mph are still expected tonight.

$$

MIZ030-035-036-041-042-011115-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-221201T1200Z/
Alcona-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Including the cities of Harrisville, West Branch, Tawas City, 
Gladwin, and Standish
952 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Alpena, Alcona, Ogemaw, Iosco, Gladwin and Arenac 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MIZ098-011115-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-221201T1200Z/
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Including the city of St. James
952 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Beaver Island and surrounding islands County.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MIZ025-031-011115-
/O.CON.KAPX.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-221201T1200Z/
Benzie-Manistee-
Including the cities of Frankfort and Manistee
952 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie, Grand Traverse, Manistee and Wexford 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

JZ

656 
WWUS73 KAPX 010738
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
238 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

MIZ025-030-031-035-036-041-042-010845-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-221201T1200Z/
Benzie-Alcona-Manistee-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Including the cities of Frankfort, Harrisville, Manistee, 
West Branch, Tawas City, Gladwin, and Standish
238 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

MIZ098-010845-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-221201T1200Z/
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Including the city of St. James
238 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1209 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1209 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

Afternoon Forecast Update...Increasing synoptic and mesoscale
forcing anticipated through the afternoon as the niblet approaches
from the southwest. Strengthening low/mid-level WAA leading to
frontogenetical processes across parts of northern Lower even as
early as this afternoon...with stronger LLJ sliding into the area
ahead of strengthening cold front to our west. Despite WAA...expect
some gusty winds this afternoon...with 925mb jet ramping up around
40kts, not out of the question we could see stronger gusts at times
into this evening ahead of the cold front...though how well we can
mix that down is unclear. Additionally...with some steeper lapse
rates moving in aloft...anticipate some of the showers could produce
decent rates at times...though deeper/better moisture looks to hold
off till this evening...with better precip development anticipated
toward sunset. It should warm up enough for precip to fall as
rain...except for perhaps across the E. UP where it /may/ be cool
enough initially for some frozen precip. That being said...will look
for seeder feeder processes, given current dry layer sandwiched
between a moist layer aloft, and reasonably moist layer in the low
levels...which could lead to frozen precip at times as well.
Anticipate thunder is not out of the question, as we could get some
convective instability going with a dry slot along the backside of
the cold front as it slides through toward midnight...with some
guidance soundings suggesting we could be saturated into the mixed-
phase temp layer.

UPDATE Issued at 1036 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

Southwesterly flow into the Great Lakes this morning...as anomalous
troughing moves through the center of the continent. One vort max
lifting northeast through Manitoba/W. Ontario...and another digging
into the central Plains attm. 100+kt northern stream jet crossing
the Great Lakes this morning in advance of aforementioned
trough...with stronger STJ across the southeastern US...and a 120+kt
jet poking into the back of the trough across the western US. Strong
LLJ ahead of the trough in the Mid-MS Valley...50+kts at 850mb...and
850mb temps beginning to rise past 0C as far north as central Lower
MI...with -20C air behind the trough over Western Canada. Bulk of
the moisture remains along the Gulf Coast...but beginning to poke
northward ahead of the upper trough. A couple noteworthy lower-level
features denoted on the map attm...first of which is a 998mb
occluded low over southern Manitoba beneath the niblet aloft. Cold
front with this extends southwest along the BCZ aloft from a triple
point in western Manitoba down to a 993mb low over northeast
KS...with its front following the BCZ back into the western US.

Warm advection drawing anomalous moisture northward through the flow
into the Great Lakes this morning...with some steeper mid-level
lapse rates floating through as well. Some returns on radar this
morning...but thus far, ASOSs have not reported anything. Somewhat
stronger returns just crossing our southwestern border as of 15z
thanks to what may be a weak warm front...though nothing showing up
at MBL...yet. 12z RAOB at APX shows a decent little dry layer
between about 850-600mb...compared to much more moist RAOB at
GRB...and not surprised to see a lot of low stratus/haze/fog over
in Wisconsin vs. just largely 2000+ft clouds here...though I do
anticipate seeder-feeder processes will come into play as we
saturate from the top down through the morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

...Becoming breezy with increasing chances of precip today and
tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Large area of high pressure remains centered from James Bay thru
much of the Eastern US. Meanwhile...a complex area of low pressure
continues to develop to the lee of the Canadian and US Rockies.
Clouds continue to thicken and lower across the Western Great Lakes
between these two systems. Spotty flurries/sprinkles have begun to
reach the ground across portions of Eastern Upper Michigan in the
vcnty of a weak warm front lifting thru that region.

Upstream low pressure system consists of a northern stream low
centered north of the Dakotas and a southern stream low centered
near the Panhandle of Oklahoma. Southern stream low will quickly
lift NE today...reaching Wisconsin by late afternoon...tracking thru
Lake Superior this evening and into Ontario late tonight. Northern
stream low center will slowly phase with the southern stream low as
it lifts thru the Western Great Lakes over the next 24 hours...
becoming one rather large/deep low pressure system. Pressure
gradient around this deepening low will tighten today and tonight
(and especially on Wednesday...more on this below)...resulting in
strengthening southerly winds ahead of this system. Deep moisture
will surge northward ahead of the approaching low center...resulting
in increasing chances of precip throughout today and tonight.

Precip type will be an issue this morning and late tonight. Temps in
the low to mid 30s early this morning will lend to a mix of light
rain and snow during the onset...with no snow accumulation expected.
Precip type will then become all liquid for this afternoon and much
of tonight as temps warm into the upper 40s to around 50 degrees
thanks to strengthening low level WAA ahead of the low. Strong cold
front will sweep thru our CWA late tonight...quickly dropping temps
into the 20s very late tonight and switching precip type to a brief
rain/snow mix and then over to all snow early Wednesday. Any new
snow accumulation will be minor...well under an inch late tonight.
As mention...wind speeds will strengthen thru tonight...but should
remain below advisory criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulating lake effect snow
and strong winds expected Wednesday through early Thursday morning.

An area of low pressure moving south to north over Wisconsin will
phase with an upper level low just north of Lake Superior Wednesday
morning. This area of low pressure strengthens from 997mb Tuesday
afternoon to 977mb by the afternoon hours Wednesday (close to
bombogenesis criteria). This strengthening low will produce tight
pressure gradients on the southern peripheral of itself against a
building high pressure over the central CONUS. Winds could gust as
high as 45-55mph late Wednesday afternoon through the overnight
hours. Forecast soundings show around 47kts at the top of the
boundary layer. Along with these strong winds, lake effect snow will
fall over portions of northwest lower and the eastern upper
peninsula over favorable westerly to west-southwesterly flow regime
areas. The associated cold front of this low pressure system will
traverse through northern Michigan late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning. With the rain that previously fell from this
system on the WAA side may freeze quickly on roadways as
temperatures drop to below freezing quickly and into the mid to upper
20s by the afternoon. 850mb temperatures continue to drop, producing
delta t/s of nearly 20C by mid-afternoon. This will be ample enough
to produce lake effect snows Wednesday through early Thursday
morning. Advisory level accumulations could be possible for these
areas during that time frame. One concern is the gusty northwesterly
winds that may break the dendrites...creating a lower snow to liquid
ratio and not realizing the forecasted snow amounts. Even if the
snow amount criteria for an advisory is not realized, conditions may
still warrant the issuance with snow, blowing snow, drifting of snow
over roadways, and low visibilities making travel difficult at
times. By coincidence the areas of snowfall with the highest amounts
in the forecast match almost exactly with the CIPS top analogue 72
hour COOP snowfall. Although our totals may not be high enough, as
mentioned before the high winds may reduce SLR and also blow snow.
Current forecast is 2-5" across portions of northwest lower and
around 6-8" across northern Chippewa County. The top analogue had 6-
8" across areas of northwest lower and 8-12" over northern Chippewa
County. Will have to continue to monitor and update the forecast
accordingly. The aforementioned high pressure building over the
central CONUS and ridging into the Great Lakes region early
Thursday, will diminish any lingering showers by early Thursday
afternoon...although lake effect clouds will linger on through the
day. Another area of low pressure begins to develop on the lee side
of the Rockies Friday bringing return flow and increasing moisture
to northern Michigan. This will bring increased cloudiness
throughout the day Friday along with above normal temperatures for
this time of the year (again)...reaching into the low to mid 40s
during the afternoon hours. Winds will remain breezy through the
afternoon hours Friday. Rain chances will increase late Friday
evening and into the overnight hours.

Temperatures will decrease throughout the day Wednesday behind the
departing cold front with near 30 to mid 30s becoming 20s by the
afternoon hours. Thursday will reach into the low to mid 30s and
warm into the low to mid 40s Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal at this time.

The developing system mentioned at the end of the previous forecast
discussion will begin impacting northern Michigan during the
weekend. To what extent the impacts will be is still to be seen.
This system appears to be rather progressive and should move through
quicker than the past storm system. High pressure is then progged to
build over the central CONUS once again, which would provide
precipitation-free weather through the rest of the weekend and into
the next work week with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s for
most areas...which is slightly above normal for this time of the
year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 600 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

Strong low pressure will lift northeastward into Wisconsin by late
today...thru Lake Superior this evening and into Ontario later
tonight. Deep moisture surging northward ahead of this system will
produce widespread rain showers across all of Eastern Upper and
Northern Lower Michigan...especially later tonight and tonight.
Some light snow may mix with the rain late tonight as the
associated cold front sweeps thru our region. Conditions will
deteriorate to MVFR and eventually IFR as this precip develops.
LLWS will impact much of Northern Lower Michigan tonight. Surface
winds will remain from the S/SE at around 10 kts this morning...
and then strengthen to 20 to 30 kts this afternoon with some
higher gusts expected. Winds will begin to shift to the SW later
tonight as the cold front moves thru our area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

Winds and waves will strengthen to gale warning criteria this
afternoon and will continue thru tonight...Wednesday and Wednesday
night as deep low pressure lifts thru the Western Great Lakes and
Ontario. Chances of precip will increase today and tonight...with a
mix of light rain and snow this morning then switching to all rain
this afternoon and much of tonight. Strong cold front will sweep
thru Northern Michigan very late tonight...switching precip to all
snow Wednesday and Wednesday night as over-lake instability
strengthens and provides enhancement to snow production across our
typical snowbelt areas.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Thursday for
     LHZ345>349.
LM...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Thursday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...Gale Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for LSZ321-
     322.
&&

UPDATE...FEF
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1212 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-301715-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
1212 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Winds will strengthen later this evening into tonight as a cold
front passes through the region. Additionally...a rumble of
thunder may be possible this evening into the overnight hours.
Severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Areas of accumulating lake effect snow will develop through the
day Wednesday into Wednesday night across portions of
northwest lower and eastern upper Michigan. Windy conditions are
also expected to develop Wednesday and Wednesday night...causing
blowing and drifting snow.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-301715-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1212 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Gale force wind gusts are expected across Lake Huron and Lake
Michigan this afternoon and tonight. Thunder is possible late this
evening into the overnight hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Gale force winds will continue across all of the nearshore waters
of northern Michigan Wednesday through Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.