High Wind Warning 5, NWS Anchorage, AK

156 
WWAK71 PAFC 260123
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
423 PM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

AKZ101-260230-
/O.CAN.PAFC.HW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220226T0200Z/
Anchorage-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, 
and Eklutna
423 PM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

High winds are no longer expected.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/afc

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
507 AM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level ridge axis continues to make slow eastward
progress, now stretching between the Alaska Panhandle out to the
North Slope. Out west, an upper level trough is beginning to fill
in and weaken in the western Bering as smaller waves rotating
around it begin to shear out. The most notable feature is moving
up from the North Pacific in between the eastern ridge and Bering
trough, now visible as a potent low pressure moving just to the
southwest of Kodiak Island on satellite products. A strong front
extends out from the center across the Gulf, with strong southeast
winds increasing to as high as storm force near the Barrens, St
Augustine Island and Middleton Island as a barrier jet develops
over the northern Gulf. Near Anchorage, the strong southeast flow
continues to stay clear of the lower elevations and even most of
the hillside with the strongest winds staying a few thousand feet
above sea level. A strong down-inlet pressure gradient is also
drawing ongoing Turnagain Arm winds south away from the Anchorage
Bowl, while gusts meanwhile up to 60 mph continue along the
Turnagain Arm itself. Strong and gusty easterly winds are
likewise ramping up again over Bristol Bay as the north to south
pressure gradient tightens back up ahead of the approaching
low/front. Moderate rainfall and mountain snow continue to stream
into the Prince William Sound and western Kenai Peninsula ahead of
the front, and to the west over Kodiak and the northern Alaska
Peninsula.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models have come into better agreement with the progression of the
strong low expected to cross over the Alaska Peninsula and track
northwest along the Southwest coast. There are still some
difference for the magnitude of winds expected to develop with
rapid pressure rises on the backside of the low. There are some
models (including the GFS) that hint at the formation of a "sting
jet" that could result in winds higher than what raw model
guidance suggests along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast early on
Saturday morning. There is also some uncertainty for how strong
winds will get on the upper Anchorage hillside today, with
possible formation of mountain waves keeping the potential for
sudden spikes in wind gusts in play through this afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...A shallow deck of fog has developed near the terminal this
morning, but is expected to be transient with increasing north
winds likely to mix it out within the next couple hours this
morning. Increasing southeast winds between 2,000 and 3,000 ft
above the surface is expected to lead to periods of low level wind
shear that will last up until winds blowing out of the Turnagain
Arm begin to bend into Anchorage later this afternoon. It does not
look likely for the winds to be particularly strong, with gusts
around 25 kts possible before the winds subside again by this
evening. There is also once again a slight possibility of a wintry
mix of rain, snow and sleet for a short time early this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Friday through Sunday
night)...

The third in a series of surface fronts is lifting toward the
northern Gulf this morning as its associated surface low deepens
south of the AKPen. This feature is tapping into a slug of
tropical moisture from the central Pacific, and with the
south to southeasterly steering flow ahead of the front, is
advecting this moisture straight toward the Southcentral coast.
The result is yet another round of moderate to heavy precipitation
developing across the northern Gulf, as evident on the Middleton
Island radar, and moving north-northwest toward the eastern Kenai
Peninsula and Prince William Sound. The precipitation is expected
to stay all rain near the coast, with temperatures hovering in
the upper 30s to lower 40s throughout the day. Farther inland, for
places like Turnagain Pass and Valdez, the precipitation should
fall as a rain/snow mix with temperates in the mid 30s. Given the
east-southeasterly flow in the lower levels, Portage Valley and
Whittier should see the highest rain amounts, with an additional
1.5 to 3.5 inches through late Friday evening. A light mix of
precipitation is possible along the lee of the Kenai and Chugach
Mountains today, as well; however, the strong cross-barrier flow
will act to limit the overall amount of precipitation due to
downsloping.

In addition to the precipitation, southeasterly gap winds through
Turnagain Arm and the Knik River Valley will again be on the
increase this morning as the front approaches, the low deepens,
and the pressure gradient tightens. The winds look to peak around
late this morning or early this afternoon as the front moves
onshore, peaking around 60 to 70 mph through Turnagain Arm and
along the Upper Hillside of Anchorage. Gusts to 45 mph are not
out of the question for Palmer. As the front, and an associated
upper-level shortwave, both move north this afternoon, winds and
precipitation will begin to diminish, with showers lingering along
the coastal mountains by Saturday morning.

A weak upper-level wave moving up Cook Inlet may bring another
round of showers to the Anchorage Bowl and Western Kenai Peninsula
for Saturday afternoon. Overall, though, conditions look to
settle down as we see a brief respite from the active weather
pattern.

By Sunday, an area of low pressure will begin to move northwest
from the eastern Gulf. While model guidance has yet to resolve the
timing and placement of this feature, there is the potential for
this low to track to the northern Gulf by late Sunday with
precipitation once again overspreading the Southcentral coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3 - Today
through Sunday night)...

A windy day is anticipated across Southwest on Friday and into
Friday night with the passage of the next upper trough. Latest
satellite imagery currently shows the trough slowly lifting into
the Alaska Peninsula with widespread cloud cover overspreading
Bristol Bay, the Kuskokwim Delta and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley.
This trough will track to the northwest and move into the eastern
Bering through early Saturday with a cooler and moister airmass
wrapping around the backside of the trough. Preceding the axis of
the trough, strong easterly winds are forecast to push into
interior Bristol Bay where gusts to up to 60 mph may be
experienced from Iliamna to Koliganek. Of particular interest will
be winds on the backside of the trough as it lifts northward
across the eastern Bering. A cold and moist airmass will encounter
increasingly drier air inland of the Kuskokwim Delta coast, which
should result in evaporative cooling and an acceleration of
southwesterly winds as the trough deepens further. A high wind
watch is in effect from Friday evening through early Saturday
morning for potential gusts up to 70 mph. Low pressure will exit
the region over the latter half of the day on Saturday. Sunday
will see milder conditions and break from any substantial winds or
precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3 -
Today through Sunday night)...

The northward progression of a trough over the eastern Bering
will bring near-gale to gale force southwesterly winds through
much of the day on Friday into Friday night. Snow is falling
across portions of the Alaska Peninsula as the trough advects in
cooler temperatures aloft. Cold Bay, Sand Point and King Cove are
all reporting snow this morning and light accumulations of perhaps
an inch are forecast, while the higher elevations will see higher
amounts. The western half of the Bering and Aleutian Chain should
prove much calmer on Friday. High pressure will move into the
Bering over the weekend with little in the way of precipitation or
significant winds expected.

&&
.Marine (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday)...

Expect an active storm track across the central to western Bering
Sea and Aleutians, with a series of deep surface lows tracking out
of the northwest Pacific and into the Bering Sea. Right now, it
looks like gale force winds will be the most common condition with
these storms, but there is a chance for small areas of storm force
winds. Conditions look much quieter from the eastern Bering Sea and
Southwest Alaska coast to the Gulf of Alaska waters. There is some
uncertainty in track of lows over the northeast Pacific. One of
these systems could track into the Gulf, but if so it would most
likely be over the eastern Gulf, closer to Southeast Alaska.

&&

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

The longwave pattern will feature a broad trough over the Bering
Sea and Northwest Pacific. For the Bering, the negative height
anomalies at 500 mb persist through March 3rd. However the
situation is a little more mild for the Southcentral at 500 mb
as they transition from negative to positive. The Bering and the
North Pacific will be major areas of cyclogenesis this forecast
period. The models spin up a number of lows at the surface,
however there is some divergence regarding the tracks of the
surface lows and the intensities. However, all the models are
advertising an active period for the Northwest Pacific and the
Bering Sea. And some of this activity will move into the Gulf of
Alaska. For Southcentral high temperatures for the Anchorage Bowl
and Mat-Su Valleys will be slightly above freezing ranging from
33F-39F. For Southwest Alaska high temperatures along the coast
will be slightly above freezing ranging from 34F-40F but interior
locations will dip below freezing.

&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch 155.
MARINE...Storm Warning 119 130 131.
		 Gale Warning 120 125 132 139-141 150 155 160 165 180
					  181 185 351 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BL
MARINE/LONG TERM...SB/PS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
329 AM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

AKZ125-260100-
Western Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Whittier, Seward, Girdwood,
and Moose Pass
329 AM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

...LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION EVENT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

A series of surface fronts will impact parts of Southcentral
through Saturday morning with rain along the coast, a mix of
rain/snow for parts of interior Kenai Peninsula, and snow at
higher elevations. Precipitation is expected to increase in
intensity Friday morning with moderate to heavy precipitation
continuing through Friday evening before gradually tapering off
Saturday morning. Additional rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 3.5
inches are possible for Whittier and Portage Valley with up to 1
inch of rain possible for Seward.

Heavy rainfall, combined with melting snow, may create standing
water on roadways where poor drainage exists, particularly in
Portage Valley and Turnagain Pass. Motorists are urged to use
caution while traveling.

In addition to the precipitation, gusty southeasterly winds of up
to 60 mph will continue across Portage Valley and Turnagain Arm
through early Friday afternoon before diminishing Friday evening.

For the latest forecast, visit www.weather.gov/afc.

For the latest road conditions, call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
442 AM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

AKZ125-260100-
Western Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Whittier, Seward, Girdwood,
and Moose Pass
442 AM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

...LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION EVENT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

A series of surface fronts will impact parts of Southcentral
through Saturday morning with rain along the coast, a mix of
rain/snow for parts of interior Kenai Peninsula, and snow at
higher elevations. Precipitation is expected to increase in
intensity Friday morning with moderate to heavy precipitation
continuing through Friday evening before gradually tapering off
Saturday morning. Additional rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 3.5
inches are possible for Whittier and Portage Valley with up to 1
inch of rain possible for Seward.

Heavy rainfall, combined with melting snow, may create standing
water on roadways where poor drainage exists, particularly in
Portage Valley and Turnagain Pass. Motorists are urged to use
caution while traveling.

In addition to the precipitation, gusty southeasterly winds of up
to 70 mph will continue across Portage Valley and Turnagain Arm
through early Friday afternoon before diminishing Friday evening.

For the latest forecast, visit www.weather.gov/afc.

For the latest road conditions, call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
805 AM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

AKZ161-261200-
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek,
and Pilot Point
805 AM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

...STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY REGION THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

Easterly winds will increase across the Bristol Bay region this
morning as an area of intensifying low pressure moves north over
the Alaska Peninsula. Wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph are possible
across an area from Iliamna to Koliganek and New Stuyahok
decreasing by this evening. Easterly wind gusts to 55 mph are
also possible along the northern Bristol Bay coast today becoming
southerly with gusts up to 65 mph this afternoon through the
overnight hours, including the communities of King Salmon,
Dillingham, Togiak, and Cape Newenham. Winds along the coast are
expected to peak in the evening hours to near midnight and then
rapidly decrease by early Saturday morning.