Gale Warning 113, NWS Anchorage, AK

467 
FZAK62 PAFC 031235
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 AM AKST Thu Feb 3 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-040215-
335 AM AKST Thu Feb 3 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 955 mb low at 54N 171E moves to 51N 169E at 975 mb for Sat 
morning. Its front stretches across the Bering through Fri 
morning. A 978 mb low near 55N 160W moves inland and dissipates 
Fri morning. A 960 mb North Pacific low moves to 53N 163W at 973 
mb Fri morning and then moves near Bristol Bay at 990mb Sat 
morning.

$$

PKZ411-040215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
335 AM AKST Thu Feb 3 2022

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Freezing spray in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ412-040215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
335 AM AKST Thu Feb 3 2022

.TODAY...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.FRI...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-040215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
335 AM AKST Thu Feb 3 2022

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ414-040215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
335 AM AKST Thu Feb 3 2022

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S up to 15 kt after
midnight. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6
ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 0
to 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
528 AM AKST Wed Feb 2 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level shortwave is currently moving east across
Southcentral supporting a surface low over the northeastern Gulf.
Upper level clouds continue to decrease while low level clouds
will linger across much of Southcentral this morning. Radar is
pretty clear across Southcentral. Observations show light snow
over the Copper River Basin near Gulkana with the coldest
temperatures also in this area around -5 to -15 degrees. A
transitory ridge is moving across Southwest Alaska with fog and
stratus reported across the area. A frontal system is moving into
the Kuskokwim Delta with light snow shown on observations and
radar. Also gusty winds reported along Kuskokwim Delta coast up to
40 mph with reduced visibilities near one mile due to snow and
blowing snow. A low pressure system near Adak continues to push
north with gale force winds reported across central Aleutians and
southern Bering as seen by recent ASCAT passes. Temperatures
mainly in the upper 30s to low 40s across the Aleutians with 30s
in Pribilofs and AKPen as well as Bristol Bay. Colder across the
Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley mainly in the teens.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models in good agreement with large scale synoptic features, but
they struggle a bit with the several shortwaves that will bring
light snow inland across the Southern mainland through Friday.
Models are in good agreement as the next front brings snow into
Southwest and Southcentral by Thursday. The biggest challenges
will be timing the shortwaves and how much snow inland and if any
warnings or advisories will be needed, especially for
Southcentral.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions expected through the period, there is a
chance of patchy fog this morning that could reduce visibilities
to IFR conditions mainly between 15z and 18z. Otherwise light
winds expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Wed and
Thu)...
One system will pull away from the area today helping to create a
quick break in the weather. The next system is already queued up
behind it and has many very similar characteristics. A transient
shortwave ridge is developing over the area this morning in the
wake of yesterday's snow event. This is allowing for some weak
offshore flow to develop, primarily near coastal areas. It seems
that the offshore flow is just strong enough thus far to hold any
fog/low stratus in check. We still can't completely rule out that
some may form right around sunrise. However, high clouds
associated with the next system are already racing towards the
Kenai Peninsula. These will further restrict any fog formation as
they will put an end to diurnal cooling this morning.

The next system will move in late this evening into Thu morning.
This system looks very similar to the one that just came through,
so expect much of the same sensible weather. The primary impacts
will once again be widespread light snow for much of the region,
while stronger winds and heavier snow look to create blowing snow
concerns for Thompson and Turnagain Passes. This system is
slightly warmer than it predecessor. Rain should start in earnest
over Kodiak this evening and be steady through Thu morning. As the
front moves into Prince William Sound, expect another round of
moderate precipitation. This will be mostly snow for inland areas
as there is just enough warm air to cause some rain to mix in for
the immediate coast (Whittier, Cordova, etc). Gusty E-NE winds
will accompany the front. However, this should usher in the
slightly warmer air and limit the blowing snow concerns for the
Portage Valley/Seward Highway.

For areas further inland, snow amounts should be similar to Tue.
1-3 inches of snow are generally expect for the interior portions
of the Kenai, up through Anchorage, and into the Mat-Valley. The
higher amounts will once again be along the extreme western Kenai
with upwards of 6 inches possible. There remains some uncertainty
with the exact low track, so there is a possibility for more
blowing snow along Cook Inlet. We will closely monitor the
forecast for this area. The Copper River Basin should see on the
order of 5 to 8 inches with this system by Fri morning as well.
This system exits to the northeast Fri and another one is on its
heels as we remain in an active snow pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A front moving across the Southwest Coast produces active weather
for the region beginning tonight. Precipitation hits the Bristol
Bay coast and up to Kipnuk late tonight, moving inland through
Thursday night. There is a warm airmass pushing with the front,
though not quite as warm as the last, there is still a potential
for a brief period of freezing rain mixed with snow in Dillingham
during the early morning hours on Thursday. Ice accumulations due
to freezing rain are expected to be minimal and snow accumulation
of 4 to 6 inches is possible for Dillingham and surrounding areas
tonight through Thursday night. King Salmon will most likely end
up downsloping out of most of the precipitation, though should any
precipitation fall it will stay as all rain up until late
Thursday evening once colder wraps back in. Otherwise, expect snow
elsewhere across Southwest through the forecast period.

A Blizzard Warning has been issued for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast,
with blowing snow conditions for inland Kuskokwim Delta. The
strongest winds and highest snow accumulation will be from Kipnuk
to Toksook bay (including Nunivak Island) during the overnight
tonight through Thursday afternoon. Sustained winds are expected
to reach up to 35 mph with gusts as high as 45 mph, and snow
accumulations up to 8 inches. Conditions will begin to gradually
improve by Thursday evening for the aforementioned areas as the
front moves northwards towards Hooper Bay. Hooper Bay will see
less snow accumulations (around an inch or less) but will keep the
strong gusty winds for a longer period of time, extending into
the late evening hours. Winds inland kick up tonight around 30 mph
and will see snowfall by Thursday morning. Areas of blowing snow
are expected throughout the day Thursday, with improving
conditions by Thursday evening. Snow accumulations of up to 5
inches are expected for Bethel and surrounding areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A vertically stacked low is moving across Adak and into the
southern Bering this morning. Storm force winds have been observed
this morning over Nikolski, and will continue tracking north and
west on the eastern edge of the low as it tracks towards towards
the northwest Bering. Winds along the Central Aleutians will begin
a downward trend beyond this morning. Winds across the northern
Bering and along the Southwest Coast (especially near the
Kuskokwim Delta) will remain gusty through Thursday night.
Additionally, expect areas of widespread precipitation across the
western and eastern Bering today. Precipitation diminishes along
the western Bering tonight and amplifies along the
northern/eastern portions of the Bering and along the Southern
AKPen tonight through Thursday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Thursday through Saturday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

A well developed low tracks along the North Gulf Coast through
Saturday. Forecast confidence decreases with the low track and
development through the period. Gale force barrier jets through
Lower Cook Inlet, Barren Islands and Shelikof Strait diminish
Friday. Seas to 14 feet through Cook Inlet and Shelikof Strait
subside Friday.

Barrier jets develop along the Eastern North Gulf Coast ahead of
the low through Saturday. A front moves across the Gulf through
Saturday. Widespread high end gales extend across the Gulf through
Saturday, Seas to 20 feet, subsiding.

Bering Sea/Aleutians:

A well developed Western Bering low complex weakens as it swings
around to the South side of the Western Aleutians by Saturday.This
low pulls a second low across the Alaska Peninsula into the
Bering through Saturday. Forecast confidence is uncertain due to
the tracks and development of the lows. Widespread high end gales
across the Bering with areas of storm force winds around the
Western Bering low diminish from East to West over the Bering by
Saturday. Seas to 30 feet over the Western Bering, subsiding. The
Eastern low has gales on both side of the Alaska Peninsula,
diminishing. Seas to 20 feet, subsiding Friday.

A new low approaches the Eastern Aleutians late Friday, and
tracks along the Alaska Peninsula Coast through
Saturday.Widespread gales near shore, with areas of storm force
winds offshore. Seas to 25 feet through Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

Looking ahead at the extended forecast, little has changed with
the overall pattern as active weather for the southern half of
the state is still anticipated. Models continue to show a 300 mb
North Pacific jet positioned south of the Aleutians on Friday that
moves northeastward over the Gulf and Southcentral through
Saturday, exiting into Canada. An associated surface low is
located in tandem with the jet's left exit region and upstream of
an upper-level ridge as it tracks along the south side of the
Aleutians on Friday. Early on Saturday, the low moves across the
Southwest/Southcentral and dissipates. In summary, this system
will bring a round of widespread precipitation from west to east
across the southern half of the state as it tracks eastward.

From Friday through Sunday night, there is a low pressure system
located just southwest of Shemya that remains nearly stationary
for the entire three days until another low approaches the central
Aleutians from the North Pacific. The front extending from this
low will push northeastward along the Aleutian Chain and into
Southwest/Southcentral through Monday. A broad ridge starts to
build over the Gulf late on Monday.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 155. Blizzard Watch 131.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 130 131 173-176 411-413.
         Gale Warning: 119 120 127 129 132 137 138 139 150 160 165
                       170 177 179-181 185 414.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 185 412 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KM
MARINE/LONG TERM...KZ/AF