Dust Storm Warning 5, NWS Las Vegas, NV

615 
WWUS55 KVEF 140610
DSWVEF

Dust Storm Warning
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1110 PM MST Fri Aug 13 2021

AZC015-140618-
/O.EXP.KVEF.DS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-210814T0615Z/
Mohave AZ-
1110 PM MST Fri Aug 13 2021

...THE DUST STORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY WILL EXPIRE
AT 1115 PM MST...

The dust storm which prompted the warning has weakened. Therefore,
the dust storm warning will be allowed to expire. Areas of blowing
dust may continue to produce low visibility at times.

LAT...LON 3424 11373 3422 11384 3426 11386 3425 11401
      3430 11409 3430 11414 3436 11419 3436 11423
      3440 11428 3480 11408 3470 11333 3432 11333
      3430 11335 3429 11342 3431 11354 3423 11360
      3421 11367 3421 11370
TIME...MOT...LOC 0608Z 093DEG 48KT 3440 11383 

$$

CP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
745 PM PDT Fri Aug 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A strong area of high pressure over the Great Basin and
Mojave Desert will lead to above normal temperatures this weekend.
Disturbances moving along the southern periphery of the high will
interact with monsoon moisture leading to chances for thunderstorms
through Saturday. Another disturbance will lead to an upswing in
storms Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
&&

.UPDATE...As of 730 pm, most of the active convection from earlier
today, focused across San Bernardino County, has diminished with the
loss of daytime heating. Meanwhile, attention shifts eastward with
approaching convection moving in from Coconino and Yavapai counties.
It's somewhat unclear how convection will evolve through the
remainder of the night. Most CAM guidance and the most recent HRRR
runs suggest ongoing storms entering Mohave county will quickly
weaken with the loss of daylight. However, the SPC mesoanalysis page
suggests 500-1000 j/kg of CAPe remaining in place for a few more
hours, and the 00z VEF sounding also showed pretty substancial
instability in play.  Given the observations, and keeping in mind
what occured last night, suspect convection will be slow to wane
until late in the evening.

I suspect the current activity will likely continue to propagate
west, driven by a strong cold pool and develop into at least the
eastern half of Mohave county before slowly decaying. Given the
instability shown in the VEF sounding this evening, can't completely
rule out storms making a run for the river or even a little further
west. Will continue to monitor trends and get a quick evening update
out to the forecast grids to account for the latest trends.

-Outler-

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Southerly winds with gusts to around 15
knots are likely through early evening before diminishing. More of a
typical diurnal pattern is expected tomorrow with lesser storm
impact potential compared to today.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Best chances for terminal impacts look like KEED/KIFP
and this evening, though confidence is low. Another complex of
thunderstorms is expected out of western Arizona that could push
gusty outflow winds from the east towards the Colorado River Valley,
shifting winds to the east late tonight and resulting in gusts over
30 kts. Continued the PROB30 groups from the earlier issuance for
these terminals.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Sunday.

Thunderstorms that have started developing over the Clark County
mountains will tend to move slowly to the west or northwest due to
the influence of the circulation that could be seen on satellite
loops moving overhead this afternoon. However, individual cells
should have difficulty sustaining themselves as they move off the
mountains. Recent mesoanalysis showed mixed layer convective
inhibition persisting over the lower elevations through the
afternoon around Clark County and Mohave counties. The The main area
to watch will be central and southern Mohave County late this
afternoon and evening as multiple runs of the HRRR indicate late day
thunderstorms over the rim country west of Flagstaff will move
toward the west and expand into a complex impacting areas from Peach
Springs down to Kingman and the Hualapai mountains. A potentially
large cold pool associated with the complex should be enough to
overcome the CIN and the storms will propagate fairly quickly to the
west limiting the potential for excessive rain over any specific
site. Strong winds up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms,
but DCAPE values generally less than 1000 J/kg do not indicate
extensive severe storm potential.

The overall synoptic setup remains fairly similar for Saturday
though the circulation overhead will have moved toward the SoCal
Coast. The easterly flow in the base of the high centered over
Nevada and surrounding states will continue to support westward
movement of storms developing over the Mogollon Rim in the afternoon
and early evening hours. The HRRR indicates a similar threat of
storm impacts for Mohave County late Saturday afternoon and evening.

High pressure strengthens and expands southward Sunday which will
produce a drier north to northeast flow across our region and should
suppress storm development somewhat. Temperatures will continue
rising under the influence of the high pressure and the Excessive
Heat Watch for Inyo and western San Bernardino counties has been
upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning which for Sunday into Monday.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday.

A pattern transition begins Monday as a broad trough begins to push
down from the Pacific Northwest which will push the high over toward
the Four Corners and lead to a southerly flow across which will
likely bring a moisture influx into our region by Tuesday. The
moisture should remain over southern Nevada and surrounding areas
through Wednesday. Increasing shear associated with the trough may
combine with the deeper moisture to produce more organized
thunderstorms. So, Tuesday and Wednesday should be fairly active
convective days.

A drying trend is indicated Thursday and Friday as the trough
progresses over the Rockies. However, there is not a clear
indication that moisture will scour out and sufficient moisture may
remain for chances of thunderstorms over the mountains of southeast
Nevada and northwest Arizona.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...Adair
AVIATION...TB3

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
508 PM PDT FRI AUG 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 SSE CIMA              35.12N 115.41W
08/13/2021  M60 MPH          SAN BERNARDINO     CA   MESONET

            PEAK WIND GUST OF 60 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH A
            THUNDERSTORM AT APPROXIMATELY 422 PM
            MEASURED AT MID HILLS CA. SUSTAINED WINDS
            WITH THE OBSERVATION WERE 7 MPH FROM THE
            WNW.

&&

MS