Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
127 PM MST Sat Aug 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...As conditions become more favorable for storms, we will
see a slow downward trend in temperatures along with a gradual
increase in rain and thunderstorm chances this coming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms had developed already this
afternoon in the mountains, with the strongest so far being in the
Chiricahua Mountains. High resolution models were still focusing
most of the thunderstorm activity in the mountains and near the
International border through this evening and again on Sunday.
Thereafter, models were advertising a surge of deeper moisture from
the Gulf of California starting Sunday night through late Monday.
Even the Extreme Forecast Index from the ECMWF model for 10 meter
winds showed high values up the gulf into the Colorado River Valley
of western AZ signaling the surge. This return of deeper moisture
and the northward shift in the upper high overhead will lead to an
upswing in thunderstorm activity Monday and more so Tuesday through
the remainder of the week. That said, cooler high temperatures will
coincide with this uptick in thunderstorm activity.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 09/00Z.
Mostly SCT-BKN clouds 11-15k ft MSL through the forecast period.
Isolated SHRA/TSRA mainly south of KTUS with local MVFR conditions
and gusty winds. SHRA/TSRA will diminish after 07/03Z. Outside of
SHRA/TSRA, SFC winds will be less than 10 kts following a normal
diurnal flow of sly/sely during the night/early morning and mainly
nwly late morning through afternoon. Isolated SHRA/TSRA
Sunday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... A low to mid grade monsoon pattern is expected this
evening and Sunday with the best thunderstorm chances from Tucson
south and eastward. Below normal temperatures return, especially
next week as moisture increases across the area. This increased
moisture will likely result in more widespread thunderstorm activity
starting Monday. Strong, erratic winds and locally heavy rainfall
will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. 20-foot
winds will generally be less than 15 mph when not influenced by
thunderstorms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1216 PM MST Sat Aug 7 2021

AZZ508-512-072000-
Chiricahua Mountains including Chiricahua National Monument-Eastern
Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox-
1216 PM MST Sat Aug 7 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Cochise
County through 100 PM MST...

At 1215 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southwest of Portal, or 14 miles southwest of Rodeo, moving
east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly remote areas of eastern Cochise
County.

This includes Route 80 between mile markers 402 and 415.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3171 10934 3187 10928 3187 10905 3173 10905
      3160 10906
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 280DEG 8KT 3177 10926

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
247 PM MST Sat Aug 7 2021

AZZ508-072215-
Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox-
247 PM MST Sat Aug 7 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Cochise County through 315 PM MST...

At 247 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Douglas. This storm was nearly stationary over Highway 80.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Douglas and Pirtleville.

This includes the following highways...
 Route 80 between mile markers 363 and 378, and between mile markers
383 and 384.
 Route 191 between mile markers 1 and 4.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3138 10962 3149 10950 3146 10936 3133 10941
      3133 10962
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 009DEG 3KT 3143 10949

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
325 PM MST Sat Aug 7 2021

AZZ509-072315-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford-
325 PM MST Sat Aug 7 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Graham
and southeastern Greenlee Counties through 415 PM MST...

At 325 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles south of Clifton, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Duncan.

This includes the following highways...
 Route 70 between mile markers 360 and 379.
 Route 75 between mile markers 379 and 391.
 Route 191 between mile markers 137 and 152.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3286 10948 3297 10931 3275 10905 3260 10926
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 319DEG 27KT 3282 10931

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Singer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
353 PM MST Sat Aug 7 2021

AZZ508-509-512-072345-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including
Clifton/Safford-Chiricahua Mountains including Chiricahua National
Monument-Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including
Douglas/Willcox-
353 PM MST Sat Aug 7 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Graham
and north central Cochise Counties through 445 PM MST...

At 353 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bowie, or 21 miles east of Willcox, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bowie.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 359 and 373.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 10961 3246 10950 3236 10930 3220 10941
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 300DEG 18KT 3235 10948

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Singer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
451 PM MST Sat Aug 7 2021

AZZ502-080030-
Tohono O'odham Nation including Sells-
451 PM MST Sat Aug 7 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Pima
County through 530 PM MST...

At 450 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Hickiwan, or 26 miles east of Ajo, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
San Simon, Vaya Chin and San Simon West.

This includes Route 86 between mile markers 67 and 86.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3218 11256 3239 11245 3231 11214 3204 11228
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 296DEG 9KT 3226 11243

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Singer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
457 PM MST Sat Aug 7 2021

AZZ508-512-080045-
Chiricahua Mountains including Chiricahua National Monument-Eastern
Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox-
457 PM MST Sat Aug 7 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Cochise County through 545 PM MST...

At 456 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Willcox, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Willcox.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 10 between mile markers 333 and 346.
 Route 186 between mile markers 327 and 338.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3225 10996 3233 10978 3216 10967 3208 10989
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 330DEG 14KT 3223 10983

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KJS