Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
259 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.DISCUSSION...
A line of thunderstorms stretches from central KS into
northern/western OK early this morning, tracking east around 30-40
mph. While the HREF mean depicts diminishing instability,
effective bulk shear around 40-50 kts should help maintain
organized storms with strong/severe wind gusts possible into the
early morning hours across northeast OK. This activity should
continue to slowly weaken later this morning and into the
afternoon as it shifts farther east in southeast OK/northwest AR.

Deep-layered southwesterly flow ahead of the strong upper cyclone
lifting into the Plains will draw deep moisture and the remains
of Pamela across TX and into southeast OK/western AR later today
through Thursday. Large scale ascent in association with the
entrance region of a 100+ kt upper level jet will favor a broad
band of convection stretching from central TX into MO. With PWATs
running at or above 2", anticipate efficient rainfall rates and
possible flooding issues primarily tonight into Thursday. Rainfall
totals of 2-3" appear likely across southeast OK, with locally
higher amounts of 4-5" possible. Plan on leaving the Flash Flood
Watch as is for now, but it may need to be extended farther
northeast into parts of northwest AR with later forecasts.

The heavy rainfall axis will shift slowly east of the area
Thursday night, although will likely see another shot of
showers/storms on Friday as a strong cold front sweeps through the
region. Dry and more fall-like weather is forecast for the weekend
and into early next week, with highs generally in the 70s and lows
in the 40s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  62  79  54 /  80  50  60  60
FSM   83  68  78  64 /  80  90  90  50
MLC   80  62  77  57 /  90  90  80  40
BVO   79  58  76  51 /  80  30  40  60
FYV   79  61  74  56 /  80  90  90  60
BYV   79  63  73  59 /  70  90  90  70
MKO   79  63  75  56 /  90  80  80  60
MIO   79  60  73  53 /  90  60  70  70
F10   81  63  78  54 /  90  80  70  50
HHW   80  66  77  63 /  80  90  80  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday evening for
     OKZ049-053-073>076.

AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....18

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
437 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-140945-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
437 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This morning across northeast Oklahoma and overnight
    for southeast Oklahoma.

HEAVY RAIN.
    RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This morning across northeast Oklahoma and overnight
    for southeast Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move into parts
of northeast Oklahoma early this morning. Isolated damaging
winds gusts will be the primary severe weather threat, mainly
across areas northwest of I-44. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible as well. This activity should slowly weaken during the
morning hours as it tracks east, although a few strong wind gusts
will remain possible.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread
across southeast and far eastern Oklahoma this evening and
eventually into western Arkansas overnight. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible, especially across southeast Oklahoma.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY through TUESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Periods of locally heavy rainfall are expected through Thursday
across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas as the remnants
of a tropical system overspread the region. A Flash Flood Watch
remains in effect for southeast Oklahoma through Thursday, and
the watch may eventually be expanded into northwest Arkansas.
Please monitor the latest forecasts for updates.

A strong cold front Thursday night into Friday may bring more
showers and storms to the region, but instability and moisture
will be more limited by this time. Strong winds can be expected
behind this front. Dry and cooler weather is forecast for the
weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
448 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

OKZ054-059-131030-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
448 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Osage
and western Pawnee Counties through 530 AM CDT...

At 447 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles southeast of Chilocco to Perry. Movement
was northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawnee...                         Fairfax...
Shidler...                        Ralston...
Burbank...                        Skedee...
Grainola...                       Foraker...
Pearsonia...                      Sooner Lake...
Southern Kaw Lake...              Webb City...
Apperson...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9635 3699 9635 3616 9678 3616 9682
      3624 9682 3625 9692 3633 9693 3634 9703
      3651 9703 3658 9689 3660 9692 3659 9705
      3668 9706 3670 9703 3668 9694 3675 9689
      3674 9683 3677 9682 3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0947Z 230DEG 51KT 3696 9699 3630 9728

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
527 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

OKZ054-059-131115-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
527 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Osage and Pawnee
Counties through 615 AM CDT...

At 526 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 7 miles south of Cedar Vale to 5 miles east of
Burbank to 5 miles northeast of Morrison. Movement was northeast at
60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawhuska...                       Pawnee...
Fairfax...                        Shidler...
Wynona...                         Ralston...
Burbank...                        Hallett...
Blackburn...                      Maramec...
Elgin...                          Skedee...
Grainola...                       Foraker...
Bigheart...                       Osage Hills State Park...
Pearsonia...                      Hulah...
Sunset Lake...                    Sooner Lake...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9600 3690 9600 3616 9663 3617 9682
      3624 9682 3625 9692 3633 9693 3634 9703
      3642 9703 3652 9701 3657 9689 3660 9692
      3659 9699 3672 9692 3675 9689 3674 9683
      3677 9682 3678 9675 3700 9674
TIME...MOT...LOC 1026Z 237DEG 52KT 3700 9652 3668 9663 3635 9694

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
603 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

OKZ054>056-059-060-064-131145-
Tulsa OK-Osage OK-Pawnee OK-Nowata OK-Washington OK-Creek OK-
603 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Osage, Creek,
Washington, northwestern Nowata, southeastern Pawnee and northwestern
Tulsa Counties through 645 AM CDT...

At 602 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 2 miles southwest of Elgin to 3 miles northeast
of Blackburn to 2 miles east of Fallis. Movement was northeast at 50
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bartlesville...                   Sand Springs...
Bristow...                        Pawhuska...
Skiatook...                       Hominy...
Dewey...                          Cleveland...
Mannford...                       Drumright...
Barnsdall...                      Oilton...
Copan...                          Ramona...
Depew...                          Wynona...
Ochelata...                       Jennings...
Avant...                          Westport...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 178 and 201.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9567 3564 9642 3565 9662 3616 9662
      3616 9681 3640 9663 3699 9635
TIME...MOT...LOC 1102Z 245DEG 42KT 3698 9631 3642 9657 3575 9707

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH