Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
227 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Warm advection getting underway across central and western
Oklahoma this afternoon. Most elevated activity should stay to
the west of the forecast area as better 850 flow remains there
into the evening. That said, early evening PoPs will mostly remain
in the chance category. Line of storms expected to organize to the
west along a cold front that pushes into western Oklahoma tonight.
Storms are expected to weaken as they move east overnight off of
the boundary, though an isolated marginally severe storm towards
12z is possible as the line moves into northeast Oklahoma. Rain
chances will push off to the east during Wednesday, but deeper
moisture from Pamela will infiltrate the region from the
southwest. PWATS in excess of 2 inches push into southeast
Oklahoma overnight Wednesday. That and upper flow paralleling the
boundary suggests heavy, training rainfall is possible across the
aforementioned location. Have issued a flash flood watch for
southeast Oklahoma from 7 pm Wednesday to 7 pm Thursday.
Rain/thunder chances will continue overnight Thursday as the
front pushes through the area, so the watch may be
extended/expanded in coverage. Front to push through the forecast
area by Friday afternoon, with much drier, fall like air settling
in for the weekend. Settled conditions to continue into early next
week. Made some minor adjustments to high temps in the early
periods, but otherwise stayed close to NBM temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  79  61  76 /  80  80  50  50
FSM   67  80  67  75 /  40  80  80  80
MLC   66  77  64  75 /  50  90  80  70
BVO   64  77  58  74 /  80  60  30  40
FYV   63  76  61  72 /  50  80  80  80
BYV   63  76  63  72 /  40  80  80  80
MKO   65  77  63  75 /  50  90  70  70
MIO   65  76  60  73 /  60  90  50  60
F10   65  78  62  76 /  70  90  70  60
HHW   67  79  66  76 /  40  80  80  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
     evening for OKZ049-053-073>076.

AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
144 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
144 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...West of Highway 75.
	ONSET...After 7 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...West of Highway 75.
	ONSET...After 7 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...West of Highway 75.
	ONSET...After 7 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma; Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...

There is an elevated risk of severe storms tonight west of highway
75 in northeast Oklahoma. Damaging winds to 60 mph is the main
threat with an expected line of storms after midnight tonight.
However, there is a low chance of an isolated severe storm or two
during the evening as well, as storms may develop over southwest
Oklahoma and move northeast. These storms, if they develop and
survive into northeast Oklahoma, would pose a large hail threat
as well. There is also a very low, but non-zero, chance of a
short-lived tornado on the leading edge of the line of storms
late tonight.

Locally heavy rainfall up to an inch is possible to the north and
west of Tulsa, in areas that recently picked up some heavy
rainfall with the previous system. Thus, there is a limited flash
flood threat.

South winds will increase into tonight ahead of a strong storm
system. Winds may gust 25 to 30 mph at times.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm...High Wind and Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm and High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY thru MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorm potential will shift south and east on Wednesday and
will be focused from southeast Oklahoma up into west central
Arkansas, along a stalling boundary. There is a limited risk for
afternoon severe storms, mainly in the form of wind and hail.

Wednesday night into Thursday, the stalled boundary will continue
to focus showers and storms over the same general areas of
southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas, especially after
midnight Wednesday night. Moisture from the remnants of a tropical
system from the Pacific will act to enhance the potential by
Thursday as well. Thus, there is potential for pockets of very
heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Stay tuned to the latest
forecasts.

A strong front Thursday night into Friday may bring more showers
and storms to the region, but instability and moisture will be
more limited by this time. Strong winds can be expected behind
this front.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
344 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

OKZ054-122115-
Osage OK-
344 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Osage
County through 415 PM CDT...

At 344 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Marland, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Burbank...                        Southwestern Kaw Lake...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3669 9706 3670 9703 3668 9694 3673 9691
      3675 9687 3674 9684 3675 9682 3669 9668
      3647 9698 3649 9700 3652 9701 3653 9700
      3655 9690 3658 9689 3660 9692 3658 9698
      3659 9705 3660 9704 3668 9706
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 218DEG 44KT 3653 9711

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH