River Flood Warning 36, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

951 
WGUS82 KTBW 251350
FLSTBW

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
950 AM EDT Sat Sep 25 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...

  Cypress Creek At SR 54 Worthington Gardens affecting Pasco County.

  Alafia River At Lithia at Lithia Pine Crest Road affecting 
  Hillsborough County.

  Myakka River At Myakka River State Park affecting Sarasota County.

  Horse Creek Near Arcadia at SR 72 affecting DeSoto County.

For the Cypress Creek...including SR 54 Worthington Gardens...Minor 
flooding is forecast.
For the Alafia...including Lithia at Lithia Pine Crest Road, 
Riverview near US 301...Minor flooding is forecast.
For the Myakka...including Myakka River State Park...Minor flooding 
is forecast.
For the Horse Creek...including Arcadia at SR 72...Minor flooding is 
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued this evening at 800 PM EDT.

&&


FLC057-260500-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-210926T1800Z/
/LITF1.1.ER.210925T0825Z.210925T1800Z.210926T1200Z.NO/
950 AM EDT Sat Sep 25 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Alafia River At Lithia at Lithia Pine Crest Road.
* Until Sunday afternoon.
* At 9:00 AM EDT Saturday the stage was 13.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 6:00 AM EDT Saturday was 13.1 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 13.2 feet 
  this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage late Sunday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet, River Drive and Squirrel Run Way downstream 
  of County Road 640 are completely covered by water. One home 
  begins to flood.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 13.2 
  feet on 08/28/1995.

&&


                  Fld   Observed        Forecasts (8 am EDT)
Location          Stg   Stg   Day/Time  Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu

Alafia River
Lithia at Lithia  13.0  13.1  Sat 6 am  13.1  12.2  10.7  9.0   7.8





&&

LAT...LON 2787 8218 2784 8228 2789 8228 2792 8218

$$

FLC027-260000-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-210926T0000Z/
/ARHF1.1.ER.210922T0127Z.210923T0315Z.210925T1800Z.NO/
950 AM EDT Sat Sep 25 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Horse Creek Near Arcadia at SR 72.
* Until this evening.
* At 8:30 PM EDT Friday the stage was 12.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 8:30 PM EDT Friday was 12.9 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage Sunday 
  afternoon and continue falling to 10.5 feet Tuesday afternoon.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet, The access road to Hidden Acres is 
  impassable.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 12.4 
  feet on 07/31/1965.

&&


                Fld   Observed        Forecasts (8 am EDT)
Location        Stg   Stg   Day/Time  Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu

Horse Creek
Arcadia at SR 7 12.0  12.4  Fri 8 pm  12.1  11.3  10.7  10.1  9.5





&&

LAT...LON 2726 8194 2708 8198 2708 8202 2726 8201

$$

FLC101-260500-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WRGF1.1.ER.210918T1115Z.210925T0045Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
950 AM EDT Sat Sep 25 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cypress Creek At SR 54 Worthington Gardens.
* Until further notice.
* At 9:00 PM EDT Friday the stage was 9.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 9:00 PM EDT Friday was 9.6 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 8.9 feet Tuesday 
  evening.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet, Flooding threatens two homes on State Road 
  54.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 9.6 
  feet on 12/15/2002.

&&


                  Fld   Observed        Forecasts (8 am EDT)
Location          Stg   Stg   Day/Time  Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu

Cypress Creek
SR 54 Worthington 8.0   9.6   Fri 9 pm  9.5   9.3   9.0   8.7   8.4





&&

LAT...LON 2819 8234 2814 8234 2814 8240 2819 8240

$$

FLC115-260500-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MKCF1.1.ER.210914T2145Z.210926T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
950 AM EDT Sat Sep 25 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Myakka River At Myakka River State Park.
* Until further notice.
* At 9:00 PM EDT Friday the stage was 8.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 9:00 PM EDT Friday was 8.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to remain steady above flood 
  stage at 8.2 feet.
* Impact...At 8.5 feet, Most of Myakka State Park is closed.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 8.3 
  feet on 09/30/1997.

&&


                  Fld   Observed        Forecasts (8 am EDT)
Location          Stg   Stg   Day/Time  Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu

Myakka River
Myakka River Stat 7.0   8.0   Fri 9 pm  8.2   8.2   8.1   8.0   7.8





&&

LAT...LON 2726 8226 2715 8234 2715 8238 2731 8226

$$

TBW

545 
WGUS82 KTBW 261341
FLSTBW

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
941 AM EDT Sun Sep 26 2021

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Florida...

  Alafia River At Lithia at Lithia Pine Crest Road affecting 
  Hillsborough County.

FLC057-261445-
/O.CAN.KTBW.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-210926T1341Z/
/LITF1.1.ER.210925T0825Z.210925T1800Z.210926T1200Z.NO/
941 AM EDT Sun Sep 26 2021

...The Flood Warning for the Alafia River At Lithia at Lithia Pine 
Crest Road has been cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Alafia River At Lithia at Lithia Pine Crest Road.
* At 9:00 AM EDT Sunday the stage was 11.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 7.4 feet Wednesday 
  morning.

&&


                  Fld   Observed        Forecasts (8 am EDT)
Location          Stg   Stg   Day/Time  Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Alafia River
Lithia at Lithia  13.0  11.2  Sun 9 am  10.2  8.5   7.4   6.8   6.5





&&

LAT...LON 2787 8218 2784 8228 2789 8228 2792 8218

$$

TBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
346 AM EDT Sat Sep 25 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Across the CONUS, but particularly over portions of the SE where the
pattern has been more static, there has been a pretty significant
change synoptically. In a more amplified flow regime, a trough axis
is propagating through the Great Lakes region and lifting back
northward into the Canadian Arctic. This was the initial feature
that helped to push a frontal boundary through Central FL. However,
with the parent feature now far removed, forward progress has all
but stopped. Southern counties haven't yet had an opportunity to
appreciate any change.

To the south of the now stalled boundary, greater instability and
moisture remains. There hasn't been any change in the airmass,
meaning convection rather typical of late summer should continue
today. The seabreeze should work as the early initiating mechanism
with outflow boundaries then propagating in different directions
supporting new convective development. The boundary itself could
also serve to initiate storms, but the forcing is so weak along
it that the seabreeze is still most likely to be the most active.
Today is the day most favorable for this, but Sunday may also see
some additional storms in SWFL. Thereafter, more significant
change settles in, completing the transition areawide.

A second trough axis is digging into the Midwest, and negatively
tilting as it does so. In the meantime, more subtle shortwaves are
propagating through the background flow, keeping things fairly
steady-state across the peninsula, and may subtly nudge the
boundary farther south. With things generally remaining as they
area, the second trough should finally give the frontal boundary
the kick to move south of the Florida peninsula as it digs further
south and settles over the state.

This change is all well and good, but what does it actually mean for
our weather? If you're looking for more pleasant daytime highs, that
doesn't look very favorable this week. It is still Florida after
all, and it is only late September. However, the airmass behind the
front is drier, and this drier air keeps rain chances pretty low
(really almost zero) outside of SWFL; this is despite a seabreeze
likely still developing at the coast north of the boundary too.
So while it stays hot, feels-like temperatures really shouldn't be
much hotter than the actual air temperature, which is an
improvement. The drier air also favors fewer clouds overnight, and
with light winds likely, this also means relatively efficient
radiation cooling. Areas away from the coast are likely to see
morning lows in the upper 60s, which is a refreshing and
noticeable change from the mid 70s generally seen. At this stage,
it is subtle, but it is a start.

Once this really settles in over the next couple days, this airmass
looks to stay in control at least until the end of the work week.
The forecast remains pretty similar each day until Friday, when
there may be enough of a moisture rebound to begin to support more
storms. Overall, not too bad, and a welcome, subtle change for
many over the next few days.

&&

.MARINE...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain a possibility
for the next couple days, particularly over southern waters where
more dry and stable air has yet to make it. Over the next couple
days, this boundary should sink farther south, drying conditions
out and shifting winds more ENE, but still allowing for an onshore
flow to develop in the afternoon. With a relatively light
gradient, winds and seas remain pretty benign, outside of the
possibility of storms creating locally hazardous conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The peninsula is drying out this week as a more continental airmass
takes control, generally shifting winds more ENE, except closer to
the coast where onshore flow is still expected in the afternoon.
Despite the slight drying, RH values remain above critical
thresholds, keeping fire weather concerns fairly low through the
week.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 143 AM EDT Sat Sep 25 2021/

AVIATION...
(06z TAFs) Terminals north of what has transitioned to a stationary
boundary look to remain free of convection, despite the development
of a seabreeze, with drier and more stable air in place. KLAL and
KSRQ are a bit more questionable, and a storm is not completely out
of the question, but certainty is not great enough for mention at
this point. Southern terminals remain in a region of more favorable
instability and moisture, meaning that storms are fairly likely
during the afternoon hours as the seabreeze gets going and heating
is maximized. VFR should prevail, however, and any flight category
reductions are likely to be brief and will be handled with TEMPOs as
timing becomes more certain later today.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  91  75  90  73 /  10  10  10   0
FMY  91  74  91  72 /  30  30  30  10
GIF  91  72  90  69 /  20  10  10   0
SRQ  89  73  88  72 /  10  10  20  10
BKV  91  68  89  66 /  10   0  10   0
SPG  89  76  88  75 /  10   0  10  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Today: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tomorrow: 4

For Additional Information On Sea Breeze Regimes go to the link below
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

Flannery