Frost Advisory 5, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
252 PM EST Mon Nov 29 2021

.DISCUSSION...
A series of upper level troughs with embedded shortwaves will move
across the eastern U.S during the period with most of the energy
and therefore clouds and precipitation remaining to our north.
However, late in the weekend into early next week a deeper trough
is expected to develop and help to push a cold front south through
the area Sunday/Monday. This front looks dry at this time with
just some clouds moving through, but we'll see how things evolve
during the week.

For tonight into Wednesday the cool dry airmass will prevail as
high pressure settles over the region. Low temperatures tonight
are expected to dip into the 30s across much of the Nature Coast
with some patchy/areas of frost possible, especially over Levy
county. The gradual moderating trend will get underway during
midweek as the high settles over the area. Late in the week the
high will drift east out into the Atlantic Ocean, but continue to
ridge westward across the region with temperatures climbing back
to near normal trough the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. North to
northwest at 7 to 10 knots this afternoon will diminish to around
5 knots this evening and shift back to northeast.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to build in through midweek then move
east out into the Atlantic Ocean later in the week, but continue
to extend back to the west across the waters. Northerly winds will
veer to the northeast later tonight and Tuesday and then east to
northeast during Wednesday through Saturday with an afternoon sea
breeze developing near the coast. Winds should remain below 15
knots and seas 3 feet or less through the period with no headlines
expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cool dry air will continue overspread the region as high pressure
builds in over the area. This drier air will support pockets of
critically low humidity values over portions of the forecast area
this afternoon and again on Tuesday. Despite the low humidity and
elevated ERC's sustained winds less than 15 mph will preclude Red
Flag conditions. The cool dry air mass will modify by midweek as
the flow becomes east to northeast with the high moving east out
into the Atlantic Ocean with no other fire weather hazards
expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  50  71  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  52  75  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  48  72  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  48  72  53  76 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  37  71  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  56  69  59  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal Levy-
     Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

Close