Small Craft Advisory 43, NWS Tallahassee, FL

802 
WHUS72 KTAE 261340
MWWTAE

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
840 AM EST Fri Nov 26 2021

GMZ750-752-770-772-262100-
/O.CON.KTAE.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-211126T2100Z/
Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line
FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from
20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
740 AM CST Fri Nov 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...North winds near 20 knots with gusts near 25 knots.

* WHERE...Gulf waters from the Walton-Okaloosa County line to 
  Apalachicola out 60 nautical miles.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM CST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

DVD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1239 AM EST Fri Nov 26 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Saturday]

Very localized dense fog has developed near ECP, resulting in LIFR
to brief VLIFR conditions. This could continue for the next few
hours. Otherwise, light rain along a cold front will approach DHN
by about 08z, and move SE through the terminals through the
morning. CIGS will drop to MVFR at the terminals with the rain.
Winds shift out of the northwest and become gusty as the front
passes, with gusts up to 20 kt possible. VFR conditions return in
the afternoon, and winds relax during the evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [857 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Friday]...

Surface High pressure centered over Georgia today will move south
over our region, causing our winds to shift southwesterly this
afternoon. A cold front will be approaching overnight with our winds
becoming more westerly ahead of the front. There is a chance for
scattered showers ahead of the cold front with PoPs about 50-60%
(highest for our SE AL counties). Winds will become northwesterly
behind the front and a little breezy. A drier air mass will settle
in after the frontal passage and cooler temperatures are expected.
Temperatures for tonight will range from the upper 40s to the lower
50s and Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 50s to low-mid 60s.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Night Through Sunday Night]...

The story remains the tale of two cold fronts this weekend. The
first front is set to exit the region late Friday night allowing
for clearing skies and cooler airmass to settle over the region.
Given that we're expecting mainly clear skies and, at the moment,
fairly light winds, temperatures should fall into the low to mid
30s for much of SE AL, SW GA, and the western FL Panhandle, the
mid to upper 30s for the Big Bend area, and the perhaps the upper
30s to mid 40s for those close to the Gulf. Opted to issue a
Freeze Watch from 8Z to 13Z for the coldest areas Saturday morning
since there's a decent shot we could get widespread freezing
temperatures across SE AL, SW GA, and Walton, Washington, Holmes,
and Jackson counties in FL. For those with sensitive plants, be
prepared to cover, move, or bring them inside as cold temperatures
can kill.

Following the chilly start to Saturday morning, temperatures will
quickly rise into 60s. The cooler and drier air holds through
Saturday night with the next front arriving Sunday. Model
guidance continues to favor a frontal wave developing over the
Gulf, which pending on how far north it extends will determine
where the stop. Kept with NBM guidance which has PoP mainly over
the Gulf and barely clipping areas south of the I-10 along the FL
Panhandle.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

No changes to the extended forecast as ensemble guidance continues
to favor longwave troughing over much of the eastern US. The
trough starts weaken and move east by mid to late week, which will
allow for zonal flow to set up. Temperatures during this time
frame will remain on the cooler side through early portion of the
week before warming to near normal by mid to late week. With
fairly stagnant weather in place, we look to remain precipitation
free.

.MARINE...

Winds will continue to clock around from southeast to southwest
over the rest of the day. Cold fronts will pass across the waters
on Friday morning and again on Sunday, each followed by fresh and
possibly strong north breezes. Small Craft Exercise Caution or a
Small Craft Advisory may be required on Friday.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front passage overnight tonight through Friday morning will
shift winds from southwesterly to northwesterly by the afternoon.
There will be a chance for light rain showers ahead of the front
during the day on Friday. TransWinds on Friday behind the front will
be breezy around 15 kts. High pressure will settle again over the
region on Saturday, bringing low dispersion values for the day.

.HYDROLOGY...

No flooding is expected for the next 7 days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   64  34  65  43  65 /  50   0   0   0  10
Panama City   63  38  64  49  64 /  20   0   0  10  20
Dothan        57  32  62  43  62 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        59  31  63  42  64 /  10   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      63  33  62  41  64 /  30   0   0   0  10
Cross City    68  36  64  43  64 /  20   0   0   0  20
Apalachicola  65  38  63  49  64 /  30   0   0   0  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
     Central Walton-Holmes-Jackson-North Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EST early this morning for
     Coastal Franklin.

GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-
     Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Montgomery
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM...KR
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...KR