Alert archive / Florida / Tornado Watches in 2021

Tornado Watch 5

February 6, 202117 counties in Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Feb 6, 2021, 4:21 PM EST for 17 counties in Florida. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 6, 2021, 4:21 PM EST (21:21 UTC)
Expired: Feb 6, 2021, 9:56 PM EST
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 1.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

Counties Alachua County, FL, Bradford County, FL, Citrus County, FL, Clay County, FL, Flagler County, FL, Gilchrist County, FL, Hernando County, FL, Lake County, FL, Levy County, FL, Marion County, FL, Orange County, FL, Putnam County, FL, Saint Johns County, FL, Seminole County, FL, Sumter County, FL, Union County, FL, Volusia County, FL

The radar

The Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 139 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 10%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 20%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 70%

Warnings issued inside it

7 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 6, 4:59 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAX	Alachua, Bradford, Columbia, Gilchrist, Union	46 min
Feb 6, 5:41 PM EST	Tornado Warning	JAX	Flagler, Putnam	34 min
Feb 6, 6:07 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAX	Flagler, Saint Johns	23 min
Feb 6, 6:16 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TBW	Levy	29 min
Feb 6, 6:41 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TBW	Levy	34 min
Feb 6, 6:53 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAX	Marion	35 min
Feb 6, 8:39 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAX	Flagler	23 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Jacksonville, FL (KJAX), launched 12:00Z, 9.4 hours before the alert went out and 141 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 845 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 75 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 45 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 370 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

369 
WWUS20 KWNS 062119
SEL5  
SPC WW 062119
FLZ000-CWZ000-070500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 5
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
420 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  North Central Florida
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Saturday afternoon from 420 PM until Midnight
  EST.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are increasing off the west coast of
Florida, as well as isolated storms forming over the central
peninsula.  All of these storms pose a risk of intensifying to
severe levels, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
north and south of a line from 45 miles south southwest of Cross
City FL to 35 miles east northeast of Daytona Beach FL. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 24030.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 6, 1:46 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brevard, Hardee, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Indian River and 6 more	2 hr
Feb 6, 3:49 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alachua, Bradford, Citrus, Columbia, Dixie, Gilchrist and 12 more	86 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Florida, 2021 Every tornado watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.