Alert archive / Iowa / Tornado Watches in 2021

Tornado Watch 16

March 10, 202134 counties in Iowa; 14 counties in Minnesota; Buffalo County, Pepin County, Pierce County, Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Mar 10, 2021, 2:46 PM CST for 34 counties in Iowa; 14 counties in Minnesota; Buffalo County, Pepin County, Pierce County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 10, 2021, 2:46 PM CST (20:46 UTC)
Expired
Mar 10, 2021, 8:00 PM CST
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 51 counties

Allamakee County, IA, Benton County, IA, Black Hawk County, IA, Boone County, IA, Bremer County, IA, Buchanan County, IA, Butler County, IA, Cerro Gordo County, IA, Chickasaw County, IA, Dallas County, IA, Fayette County, IA, Floyd County, IA, Franklin County, IA, Grundy County, IA, Hamilton County, IA, Hancock County, IA, Hardin County, IA, Howard County, IA, Humboldt County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Kossuth County, IA, Marshall County, IA, Mitchell County, IA, Palo Alto County, IA, Polk County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Story County, IA, Tama County, IA, Webster County, IA, Winnebago County, IA, Winneshiek County, IA, Worth County, IA, Wright County, IA, Dakota County, MN, Dodge County, MN, Faribault County, MN, Fillmore County, MN, Freeborn County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Houston County, MN, Mower County, MN, Olmsted County, MN, Rice County, MN, Steele County, MN, Wabasha County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Winona County, MN, Buffalo County, WI, Pepin County, WI, Pierce County, WI

The radar

The La Crosse radar (KARX), 133 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

7 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 10, 4:13 PM CSTTornado WarningMPXDakota, Rice, Scott14 min
Mar 10, 4:23 PM CSTTornado WarningMPXLe Sueur, Rice, Waseca26 min
Mar 10, 4:36 PM CSTTornado WarningMPXDakota, Rice, Scott24 min
Mar 10, 4:47 PM CSTTornado WarningMPXDakota, Rice28 min
Mar 10, 5:15 PM CSTTornado WarningMPXDakota, Rice30 min
Mar 10, 5:27 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXDakota, Ramsey, Washington29 min
Mar 10, 5:34 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXGrundy, Marshall24 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 208 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2021-03-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2021-03-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 76 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
946 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
76 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
219 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

106 
WWUS20 KWNS 102043
SEL6  
SPC WW 102043
IAZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-110200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 16
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
240 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  central and northeastern Iowa
  southeastern Minnesota
  a small portion of west central Wisconsin

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 240 PM
  until 800 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop by
late this afternoon.  This may include a few supercells with the
potential to produce tornadoes, before a broken squall line evolves
and advances eastward with damaging wind gusts likely becoming the
primary severe hazard this evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast of Rochester
MN to 5 miles southeast of Des Moines IA. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 23040.

...Kerr

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 10, 1:32 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Audubon, Benton, Black Hawk, Boone, Bremer and 38 more118 min
Mar 10, 5:43 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Benton, Black Hawk, Bremer, Buchanan, Butler and 21 more2 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Iowa, 2021Tornado Watches in Minnesota, 2021Tornado Watches in Wisconsin, 2021Every tornado watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.