Alert archive / South Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 981

June 15, 202116 counties in North Carolina; 21 counties in South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 15, 2021, 4:09 PM EDT for 16 counties in North Carolina; 21 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 96 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 15, 2021, 4:09 PM EDT (20:09 UTC)
Expired: Jun 15, 2021, 5:45 PM EDT
In force: 96 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe thunderstorm watch 274

All 37 counties

Beaufort County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Brunswick County, NC, Carteret County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Craven County, NC, Dare County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pender County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Bamberg County, SC, Beaufort County, SC, Berkeley County, SC, Calhoun County, SC, Charleston County, SC, Clarendon County, SC, Colleton County, SC, Darlington County, SC, Dillon County, SC, Dorchester County, SC, Florence County, SC, Georgetown County, SC, Horry County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lee County, SC, Lexington County, SC, Marion County, SC, Orangeburg County, SC, Richland County, SC, Sumter County, SC, Williamsburg County, SC

The radar

The Wilmington radar (KLTX), 51 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 118 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1287 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -82 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 947 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 87 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 78 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 1.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

813 
ACUS11 KWNS 152010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152009 
NCZ000-SCZ000-152145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0981
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern South Carolina into
eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274...

Valid 152009Z - 152145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across the remainder of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 274 for a couple more hours. Thereafter, the
severe threat is expected diminish as storms move offshore.

DISCUSSION...Multiple multicellular clusters and brief, transient
supercells are in progress along the SC/NC coastline. A few of these
storms have a history of producing damaging winds and given the 2000
J/kg MLCAPE in place, the severe threat is expected to persist while
storms remain over land. The severe threat may persist longest over
portions of South Carolina, where storms remain farther inland. In a
couple of hours, the storms are expected to move offshore, with the
severe threat rapidly diminishing.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 06/15/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON   31718015 31888051 33158123 33888157 34088147 34188140
            34248132 34567983 34947837 35627684 36027554 35777518
            35617512 35517512 35367515 35177520 35067523 34987530
            34947535 32447898 31718015

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 15, 12:57 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anson, Beaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Brunswick, Carteret and 30 more	63 min
Jun 15, 1:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Beaufort, Bladen, Brunswick, Carteret, Columbus, Craven and 12 more	7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2021 Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.