Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 971
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 14, 2021, 2:51 PM MDT for 22 counties in Colorado; Banner County, Kimball County, Scotts Bluff County, Nebraska; Laramie County, Wyoming. It was in force for 114 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 14, 2021, 2:51 PM MDT (20:51 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 14, 2021, 4:45 PM MDT
- In force
- 114 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 26 counties
Adams County, CO, Arapahoe County, CO, Bent County, CO, Boulder County, CO, Broomfield County, CO, Crowley County, CO, Denver County, CO, Douglas County, CO, El Paso County, CO, Elbert County, CO, Huerfano County, CO, Jefferson County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Lincoln County, CO, Logan County, CO, Morgan County, CO, Otero County, CO, Pueblo County, CO, Teller County, CO, Washington County, CO, Weld County, CO, Banner County, NE, Kimball County, NE, Scotts Bluff County, NE, Laramie County, WY
The radar
The Denver radar (KFTG), 35 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 78 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 677 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -353 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2390 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 29 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 3 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 14 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
994
ACUS11 KWNS 142051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142051
COZ000-NEZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-142245-
Mesoscale Discussion 0971
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021
Areas affected...Portions of central and eastern Colorado...far
southeast Wyoming...southwestern Nebraska Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 142051Z - 142245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Gradual development of isolated thunderstorms is expected
through the remainder of the afternoon/evening. A WW issuance is not
expected given the sparse nature of the severe threat.
DISCUSSION...Mesoanalysis trends continue to indicate eroding MLCINH
to the immediate lee of the Rockies, where visible satellite and
MRMS mosaic radar show convective initiation underway. Surface
temperatures have warmed to over 90F, with south-southeasterly
surface flow advecting 60F dewpoints to the Colorado Front Range.
Still, given the very warm low-levels, a dry boundary/sub-cloud
layer has developed, with 9+ C/km surface-500 mb lapse rates
present. Any storm that manages to develop in the weakly forced
environment will be high based, with damaging gusts the primary
threat given the dry, warm sub-cloud layer, though some small hail
may still accompany the more persistent updrafts. Damaging gusts
will be most likely with any cellular/cold pool mergers that can
occur. However, the severe wind/hail coverage is expected to remain
isolated, and a WW issuance is not anticipated.
..Squitieri/Grams.. 06/14/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...
LAT...LON 37110460 38030525 39120546 39710549 40720544 41450540
41690533 41940505 42050464 42060425 41960376 41820350
41520331 40850306 39900280 39320273 38410269 37700286
37260320 36950368 37110460SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 6:15 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Logan, Phillips, Sedgwick | 2 hr |
| Jun 13, 8:39 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arthur, Cherry, Garden, Grant, Hooker, McPherson and 1 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 14, 1:24 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Sioux | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Wyoming, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.